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Dropping Out, Staying In

Posted on Thursday, November 2, 2023
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by AMAC Newsline
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President Trump walking with fist up

The first stage of the contest to be the next Republican nominee for president of the United States is almost over, and the number of credible announced candidates is becoming smaller by the day.

There has been no voting yet, so assessing a candidate’s level of support has been primarily accomplished through polling — which is often an inaccurate measure so early in the cycle.

But because of campaign financing and the Republican National Committee’s rules for qualifying for the national TV debates, other factors, especially fundraising, are bringing the first stage of the primary contest to a close, and those candidates without early support and resources are suspending their campaigns.

While several long-shot candidates, including Perry Johnson, Will Hurd, Francis Suarez, and Larry Elder have bowed out, one major candidate, former Vice President Mike Pence, has also now suspended his campaign.

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, while still in the race, have so far failed to garner significant support. Most are expected to withdraw before the end of the year, or soon after the initial GOP primaries at the latest.

Of course, the main news is that former President Donald Trump has maintained very large leads in almost every poll and remains the prohibitive frontrunner. He has chosen to avoid the first two RNC debates, and has indicated he will not participate in the next one. His rallies, comments, and his recent indictments easily dominate the political news cycle.

Although they trail Mr. Trump by many points in the polls, two of the candidates still running, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, are polling well above their other rivals, and remain potentially viable contenders should Mr. Trump falter heading into the key primary season in early 2024.

Governor Haley has seen a recent surge in her support, and Governor DeSantis has had a notable positive response to his actions bringing Americans out of the war-torn Middle East and sending arms and supplies from Florida to Israel.

The first two GOP candidate debates were not successful in producing a single winner, and there is little prospect now that the third debate, scheduled for November 8 in Miami, will narrow the field to a single challenger to Mr. Trump.

After Israel was attacked by Hamas terrorists in early October, Mr. Trump drew some criticism for comments regarding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom he had worked well with during his presidency from 2017 to 2020. But Mr. Netanyahu had congratulated President-elect Joe Biden when news organizations called the election in his favor, and Mr. Trump, who was contesting the result, had considered this a betrayal. Trump’s recent comments about Mr. Netanyahu created some backlash, although the former president has followed them up with multiple statements of strong support for Israel, and press reports following his recent remarks to the Republican Jewish Coalition noted that he was very well received.

There are still lingering questions about how the indictments against Donald Trump in New York, Georgia, and the District of Columbia might impact the race heading into next year. Although most Republicans and many independents, the polls say, consider these indictments to be unfair and politically motivated — and many legal scholars, both on the left and the right, consider them improper — the criminal procedures against a former U.S. president and current frontrunner in the next election are unprecedented, with therefore an unknown impact on the 2024 presidential election. Some of the trials are now scheduled to occur during the campaign.

The likely Democrat reelection ticket of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is now doing very poorly in the polls, including in virtually all of the battleground states they won in 2020. Donald Trump is beating Joe Biden in most of these polls, and so are Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.

The recent removal of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the U.S. House in an intraparty squabble did cast a shadow over Republican 2024 prospects, but that has now been resolved with the election of a new speaker, Mike Johnson. Also, successful GOP candidate recruitment for challengers to several incumbent Democrat U.S. senators next year have revived for now conservative hopes in those races.

Obstacles remain for the GOP. Court-ordered congressional redistricting in a few states has created some uncertainty for the 2024 U.S. House elections. A confrontation with the Biden administration and congressional Democrats over funding the government looms ahead. Wars in Ukraine and now the Middle East are unsettling the international scene, as is the ongoing challenge to the U.S. from China. The state of the economy, the stock markets, and continuing inflation are unpredictable, but will, as always, play a major role in what voters will decide at the polls.

With so many unanswered political, economic, and military questions, and the hyper-partisan nature of the 2024 election cycle boiling over, who will be on the major party, and possibly serious third party, tickets next November is tantalizingly unknown as the decisive next stage of the national elections approaches.

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Rik
Rik
11 months ago

President Trump has to be the prohibitive favorite and though I’m not a big fan of his personality he did prove to having a very productive first term! And very much deserves the Party’s candidatacy again!
Though he should win in a landslide, I do believe that the Democrats will CHEAT and STEAL the Election again because I haven’t seen where Republicans corrected the cheating from the last Election!

A Voter
A Voter
11 months ago

Personality aside, Trump is the candidate most feared by the left. This is all I need to know to convince me he is exactly what the country needs. Anyone who was paying attention during his first term would know that.

PaulE
PaulE
11 months ago

The GOP primary race has been over for quite some time now. Trump has won and leads the others mentioned by 40 to 50 points. DeSantis was put up by the Never Trumpers crowd but has failed to garner any significant support and has actually lost ground as time has passed. There are multiple reasons why he failed. Several major donors of DeSantis have dropped him and shifted to supporting Haley in the Never Trumpers crowd. She seems to be the last-ditch hope of the Never Trumper crowd but then there is all the nasty video footage of her flip-flops and pro China speeches to deal with. So it is doubtful she can rise above 10 or 15 percent after a number of the other also rans drop out.

The rest of the candidates still in the GOP race are going nowhere. Christy is simply in the race to bad mouth Trump. He has no real platform or any real solutions. He is just auditioning for a cable TV guest consulting slot. Vivek kind of shot himself in the foot on a few issues and was never in it to win. His concern simply seemed to be about raising his own profile for a job either in the next Trump administration or a later political run down the road.

As for Congress in 2024, the Democrats are already working on changing voting maps in several states to try and get back the House and expand their majority in the Senate. So far, the GOP seems to be sleepwalking and ignoring the obvious threat. Classic GOP establishment response. Ignore the obvious threat and just hope it magically goes away, which of course it never does. The RNC seems content to simply go along with the status quo and not rock the Washington boat. Of course, the American people want a much more proactive and responsive GOP Congress and Trump back in the White House.

Louis
Louis
11 months ago

With all the turmoil in the world, the US economy in shambles, the energy crisis we are facing, and the judicial system disparity in this country, there is only one candidate with enough fortitude up to the task and that is President Trump. The rest are just “wannabe’s”. Ron DeSantis has been a great governor for the state of Florida. He should keep it that way. Nikki Haley can’t decide what she is for or against, a disappointment to many. The rest are just “spinnin’ their wheels”.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
11 months ago

Never mind the courts, they’re trying to exploit the 14th Am. to keep him from getting on state ballots. And by a judge in Colorado who gave money to a group whose goal is to keep Trump off the ballot. What next if that doesn’t work… mysterious mechanical problem causing an air crash or thalium-laced tea? It’s what dictatorships do after all…

FactsVsFeelings
FactsVsFeelings
11 months ago

Trump accomplished Energy Independence,elimination of Isis territorial control, helped broker the Abraham accords, Moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, Ended the NAFTA scam! China trade agreement combatted unfair trade practices, Border security, substantial economic growth, stock market records all time high, North Korea diplomacy, criminal deportations War on human trafficking signed legislation and took measures to end it Never took a paycheck! I have a list of 289 accomplishments Let’s see your list! We are on the brink of losing our country economy is bankrupt other countries are getting off the U.S. dollar we are on the edge of WW3 they’re speaking of implementing the draft I’m praying leftist liberals go to the front lines! It’s going to take a tough badass to save this country Trump is the only choice! Trump is the first republican I ever voted for!

Garyk
Garyk
11 months ago

The Republican party better get off their behinds and stand up to ALL the anti American garbage, destructive policies and criminal attacks occurring everywhere.
NOW us the time to stop the erosion of Faith,Family and Freedom with a well presented common sense,easily understood contrast between Conservatives and the marxist democrat party.
IF it doesn’t occur in 2024, and President Trump isn’t re- elected to save America, the marxist democrats, globalist and America haters will transform and destroy what’s left of freedom.
Sorry, but I don’t believe there will be another chance for Our Country,Children and Grandchildren.

mikem
mikem
11 months ago

they should all drop out and save their money, they are toast.

Ladybug
Ladybug
11 months ago

Best news I have heard in a long time, Pence is out!! I wouldn’t trust that mouse as far as I could throw him. To try to become president show how out of touch and absolutely stupid he is! Go into total seclusion, Mike, like you should have done on Jan. 6!!!

Barb wilkins
Barb wilkins
11 months ago

Trump has been selected to win like all past Presidents, so don’t even think your vote is electing him. It’s all part of the Uniparty movie production. So, take your popcorn to the poll results movie in your home, as the only true seats that will be taken are the ones you will sit in as you watch this all play out on your programmed tell lie visions.

Nevadavic
Nevadavic
10 months ago

The RNC chairman, Rhona McD, needs to be replaced. She’s the RINO crippling Republicans in the debates

Linda
Linda
11 months ago

Good article…2024 election will definitely decide if America will remain the home of the FREE….AMERICAN PEOPLE are not ignorant, and we are not APATHETIC…AMERICA Was Founded on PRINCIPLE worth Preserving, America is the Greatest NATION on earth and worth fighting for. .America is not finished yet…????????????????????????????????????????????

Dee
Dee
11 months ago

There are five never-Trumpers commenting. Just go away and take your boosters.

Ben Franklin
Ben Franklin
11 months ago

Oh, I meant to say : “I’ll get you all started by down-voting my comments first.

Kathleen Vespa
Kathleen Vespa
11 months ago

I believe Trump should bow out ensuring that a republican will win the presidency in 2024.

WRS
WRS
11 months ago

Trump needs to tune in, turn on and drop out. Just go.

Marlaen Fisher
Marlaen Fisher
11 months ago

Trump will probably win the Republican Primary, but he probably will not win the election. People in this country vote personality not policy. The Independents and traditional Democrats will not vote for Trump. My friends who are Independents and Democrats have said they cannot vote for Trump even my Jewish friends. I think Niki Haley would be the best candidate.

Rick
Rick
11 months ago

Nominating Trump as GOP candidate will only assure four more years of
Biden, and almost certain a president Harris.
If Trump was the patriot he claims he is, he would step aside and allow someone
who has a real chance of winning and being able to serve two terms, the nomination. However his EGO won’t allow it.

Ben Franklin
Ben Franklin
11 months ago

It’s no surprise why the Democrats are eating our lunch. We can nominate another Reagan who will change the course of the country for a generation (DeSantis) but we are going with another Bush type, a RINO (Trump) who talks a great game but does little. Even Bush did not go as far out of his way to accommodate the Dems as Trump did. And if you say Trump did a lot in his first term, look for the same in his second if he gets elected again (which he won’t). A lot of Executive orders that will be undone by Pres Newsom in 4 years. We have an adult (DeSantis) vs an intellectual child (Trump), so who do we choose? Well, we are not known for good choices (McCain, Bush, Dole, Bush), so we’ll be going with another guy who will lose (Trump).

Governor Tim Walz giving a speech at a Podium in September 2024
Fema.gov Disasters USA Government home page under magnifying glass.
Medicaid text sign on calculator with pills and money. Medicaid text calculatoron American paper money with pills and orange prescription bottle

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