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Do Political Television Ads Still Work?

Posted on Tuesday, September 3, 2024
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by Andrew Shirley
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15 Comments
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In an era where streaming is king and digital platforms like social media dominate how most Americans get their information, it’s worth asking if traditional political TV ads still have the same effect that they did 10 or even five years ago.

According to survey data from Pew, 86 percent of Americans get their information from smartphones, tablets, or computers “at least some of the time,” while 62 percent said they turn to TV “some of the time” for news. Importantly, however, 58 percent of those surveyed said they prefer to get their news from websites and apps, while just 27 percent said the same for TV.

Additionally, 99 percent of all U.S. households pay for at least one streaming service, like Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon Video. Streaming surpassed cable as the most popular way for Americans to watch their favorite shows in 2022. The gap has only continued to expand since then.

Nonetheless, marketing and media industry outlet The Drum predicts that political campaigns will spend a record $12 billion on political ads before Election Day, up nearly 30 percent from 2020. As much as 70 percent of that money is expected to be spent on “linear TV,” that is, “traditional television medium with content delivered via satellite or cable.”

Not too long ago, those ads might have made the difference in the race. In the 2012 GOP primary, Newt Gingrich had a head of steam coming out of his South Carolina victory before millions in TV ads swung the contest toward Mitt Romney. That same year, the Obama team’s strategy of defining Romney early through TV ads likewise proved instrumental in his re-election victory.

But more recent history suggests that, despite the enormous sum of money earmarked for TV over the next two months, all those ads likely won’t move the needle too much this time around.

President Joe Biden’s ill-fated re-election campaign is a case study in the limits of TV advertising. Recognizing that Biden’s cognitive decline would prevent him from running a traditional campaign, the Biden team pursued a “TV first” approach. Between January and November of last year, the Biden campaign spent some $39 million on TV ads in key swing states – only to see the president’s poll numbers go down.

In the two weeks preceding Biden’s debate with Donald Trump, the Biden campaign and Democrat-aligned groups spent $21.4 million on campaign ads. In the two weeks that followed, these entities spent an additional $15.6 million. In that same period of time, the Trump campaign and its backers spent $3 million leading up to the debate and $2.1 million following it. Despite outspending Republicans more than seven to one, the ads could not save Biden’s flailing campaign.

Even candidates who didn’t have obvious health concerns hampering their campaigns struggled to move the needle with TV ads this year.

During the GOP primary, Republican presidential hopefuls, most notably Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, poured money into TV, only to be trounced by Trump. As a January New York Times article noted, “Nikki Haley and her allied super PAC spent roughly $28 million on broadcast ads in Iowa. Gov. Ron DeSantis and his allies spent $25 million. Trump and his super PAC spent only $15 million — and won by more than 30 points.”

But if TV ads are increasingly ineffective, why are campaigns and activist groups continuing to pour money into running them? In most cases, the answer is that they make the political consultant class piles of cash.

Take, for instance, the case of the Lincoln Project, an organization founded by establishment “Republicans” to oppose Trump.

In 2020, the group ran a slew of TV ads against Trump ostensibly to convince Republicans to vote for Biden. While the ads were unsurprisingly popular with liberals on social media, they were wholly ineffective when it came to actually swaying voters. According to a report from the Democrat Super PAC Priorities USA, many Republicans felt that they were more motivated to vote for Trump after watching the anti-Trump ads.

In total, the group raised nearly $100 million during the 2020 cycle. According to Fox Business, over one third of what they spent in that cycle went to companies owned by the Lincoln Project’s founders. “Tens of millions of dollars went toward expenses like production costs, overhead — and exorbitant consulting fees collected by members of the group.” Steve Schmidt, one of the group’s co-founders, reportedly bragged that the ads the group cut during the 2020 cycle were his ticket to “generational wealth.”

While the Lincoln Project may be one of the more repulsive instances of the consultant class scheming to get rich off of ineffective ads, it is hardly unique. Consultants sub-contracting out TV ad production and booking to companies that they also own has created a major incentive to continue the practice even as fewer and fewer Americans are watching.

TV ads still have a place in campaigns, and done right they can still be effective. But growing signs suggest that the era where blanketing the airwaves could almost single-handedly swing an election is likely drawing to a close.

Andrew Shirley is a veteran speechwriter and AMAC Newsline columnist. His commentary can be found on X at @AA_Shirley.

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Max
Max
1 month ago

Well, MSM will continue to spew out the false and misleading information of the Demos while curtailing the ads of the opposition. Another excellent sign of future government takeover of our lives.

Geraldine
Geraldine
1 month ago

I must be a 1%er! No streaming service! I now mute the Democrat’s TV ads as they are so full of of hate and outright lies that they should be banned. Radio too!
There should be a standard of truth in these ads.

anna hubert
anna hubert
1 month ago

Really, if you look around you, go to the store, get some gas and pay the bills, do you really need an add?

Linda
Linda
1 month ago

Hope everyone here read Zuckerberg’s admission in the past week. He was another that gave into agreeing with censoring our free speech rights in regards to the Biden/harris mandated censorship over covid19.

Richard A
Richard A
1 month ago

The way I see it:
Democrat Voters believe what ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC say is gospel!

Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
1 month ago

YES. Among the oaranoids it still works. Some poeople are so afraide their friends or neighbors is goinna find out how they voted. So they dont vote their choice. Keep your mouth shut ajd no problem. Kyle L.

Joe
Joe
1 month ago

When I had a DVR, I was able to speed through the commercials, which was very nice to have during an election season. Now I live stream and have to either endure the commercials or walk away from the TV for ten minutes. Yes, the commercial breaks have been excruciatingly long and it’s insulting to see most actors are DEI hires put before the cameras to meet the ESG requirements.

Melinda
Melinda
1 month ago

Fox news, which I watch occasionally during the day, is the leading cable channel, but still cannot compare with the adult population of the country. I also read some online newsletters. But no social media. I’m sure a majority of young people get news this way, but do they vote? I guess we’ll find out.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
1 month ago

Apparently so, since I keep seeing the same ads from 1980 about “Republicans want to steal your Social Security and Medicare”!

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
1 month ago

IF
define issues
How other side deals with issues
solves problems
Otherwise NO

ROBIN
ROBIN
1 month ago

EPOC TIMES is a good news source…and Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo is really informing news…

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