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Current Polling on 2022 Midterms: Could Republicans Take the House and Senate?

Posted on Thursday, May 12, 2022
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by AMAC, Bob Carlstrom
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In American politics these days, every election is the most important election of our lifetime, because the stakes continue to be raised on an increasing number of issues that impact the daily lives of Americans. While non-presidential elections get less fanfare in the media they are no less important. In fact, midterm elections have historically served as a check on the power of the Presidency and the party controlling Congress. This is a natural and necessary ebb and flow of power, designed to prevent any permanent majority from emerging. 

As we have previously quipped on these pages, over the last 40 years of midterm elections, the party that controls the U.S. House of Representatives typically loses, on average, 26 seats. Today, Democrats hold a three-vote majority, 221-209, with five vacancies (218 seats needed for a majority). A 26-seat victory this November would handily give Republicans control of the House. 

In the Senate, things are even closer with the current 50-50 split. This year, 35 Senate seats are up for election, with 15 Republican and 13 Democrat incumbents running, and seven open seats, six of which were held by Republicans. Fortunately for Republicans, even though they are defending more seats than Democrats and have to compete in open seats vacated by Republicans, some of which are in purple-ish states like North Carolina, they have the historical wind at their back. 

Recent polling of the generic congressional ballot over the cycle shows a Real Clear Politics average of 45.8% support for Republicans compared to 42.3% for Democrats. One would expect the Republican congressional ballot poll average to be higher, especially with a President in office with an abysmal 51.7% unfavorable RCP average but even that small advantage translates to enough seats to take the House. Liberal pundits are seeming to sense something big is coming. MSNBC’s Chuck Todd referred to the upcoming midterm elections as being “bad or catastrophic” for Democrats. With inflation hitting 8.5% over the last year as of March 31st, and continuing to rise, who can blame Americans for not being on board with the Democratic agenda? 

Two of the nation’s top political ratings forecasters, the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball, moved 8 and 11 competitive House races, respectively, all in favor of Republicans. Cook’s analysis summed up the mood most Americans are feeling today, stating “President Biden’s approval rating remains stuck at 42 percent, and if anything the political environment has deteriorated for Democrats since January as inflation concerns have soared and Build Back Better has stalled. That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising ‘reach’ opportunities.”

Given all of these factors, political observers are now saying that the question is not if Republicans will take back Congress, but the question is by how much?

Bob Carlstrom is President of AMAC Action

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Dwayne
Dwayne
2 years ago

Please Remember “DO NOT PUT THE CART BEFORE THE HORSE” We Still have a long way to go and it won’t matter at all if The RINOS Take Congress. They are just as bad as the Democrats at least Democrats Tell you They Want to Destroy America. So Please America First People Only. At Least That’s My Opinion.

Ted L.
Ted L.
2 years ago

Amen, Fr. Timothy. I am ashamed to say that as a teenager, I did “take hold of myself” rather often and it makes me cry to think of how many potential lives were wadded in Kleenex and put into the waste bin. Once I found Jesus, I proudly “held it in” until I found a good woman in whom I could spend my God-given gems. All things are possible with Him!

Barbi
Barbi
2 years ago

… best spokesman for President Trump is, President Biden. The more Biden insults him, the higher Trump goes in the polls! Shhh. Don’t tell anyone –

Sandi
Sandi
2 years ago

God willing

ops
ops
2 years ago

Written by Josiah Gilbert Holland and read before the Senate by Chaplain Peter Marshall
“God, give us men! A time like this demands
Strong minds, great hearts, true faith and ready hands;
Men whom the lust of office does not kill;
Men whom the spoil of office cannot buy;
Men who possess opinions and a will;
Men who have honor; men who will not lie;
Men who can stand alone before a demagogue and damn
His Treacherous flatteries without winking!
Tall men, sun – crowned, who live above the fog
In public duty and in private thinking.”

Marc Ziegler
Marc Ziegler
2 years ago

Yes, and the White House!!! Period!!!

anna hubert
anna hubert
2 years ago

winner takes it all providing there is no extra ace in the sleeve and pack is fresh

Amacer
Amacer
2 years ago

I have serious doubts the Republicans will take any significant seats in the House and Senate. Why? Because the 2020 presidential election was stolen without any accountability or punishment. Does anyone think the Democrats won’t cheat to the max in all future elections?

Hdrydr
Hdrydr
2 years ago

At this point, it doesn’t matter. Too many God damned RINO’s in the bag of political feces.

Patriot Bill
Patriot Bill
2 years ago

Two parties
One hates America and wants to destroy it
The other wants to promote life liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
But we have lost justice, law and common sense. If the election isn’t rigged the Republicans should lead for the next 100 years. Ultra MAGA 😉

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

See NO real Vision or Plans & NO strong leadership visible Yet save Cruz, Jordan, Cotton, Cawthorn, Scott,

Martin Plecki
Martin Plecki
2 years ago

I say don’t any Republican get complacent. We thought we had the presidencies sewed up in 2020 and Democrats came up with a way to cheat their way to getting their guy in the White House. Volunteer to watch polls. And, talk to your Democratic acquaintances:-)

Barb
Barb
2 years ago

I would think the Republicans could take the House and Senate with all the “democrat storms” going on for the past 16+ months, but my grandma used to always say “don’t count your chickens before they hatch”. The Republicans should not let their guard down at all, as the democrats always have some sneaky crooked ways going in motion.

Walt
Walt
2 years ago

Our illustrious President swears he is Catholic in good standing…….the hierarchy of the church does not have the balls to excommunicate him or our Illustrious speaker of the house…….but……they protect priests who molest children and then they lie to Catholics like myself who love the church…..go figure

PFARIZONA
PFARIZONA
2 years ago

Biden’s approval rating at 42%. I find it hard to believe it’s that high. And the suburban housewives who voted for him, how’s that working out for you? Republicans will save America. Democrats have put America on the road to destruction. We bette get off that road in November!

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
2 years ago

Even then I have my doubts based on the field of Republicans I see in Nevada that they will do anything FOR ME. The one good thing is that even if Republicans don’t do “FOR ME” unlike Democrats, they don’t do anything TO ME! Is it too much to just be left alone by this government? Ever since Biden got in office, it has been one thing after another that actually affects my everyday life!

Garye
Garye
2 years ago

Certainly good news for America Mr. Carlstrom!
My concern is two-fold, will Republican voters become complacent between now and the election? Are the Republicans going to make significant changes benefitting Citizens or focus on politics over policies???
Historically, the Citizens and their priorities seem to become less important after the voting.
We need a positive America first agenda and the leaders to make it happen.
Thanks for the article,thought provoking and well written.

BACKWOODS
BACKWOODS
2 years ago

stopthewho.com is a must before this hidden agenda gets passed. The Biden administration is trying to sneak this through, it is going to be devastating to this countries sovereignty. The Biden administration plans on selling us out to the WHO, giving them and the UN total control of our health.

BAE
BAE
2 years ago

Oh God, I hope the republicans take the House and Senate. But when they do, I hope they do right by the American taxpayers. We have been let down so often!

Becky
Becky
2 years ago

And this time….the Traitorous, useless, corrupt GOP had better get off their azzes and start FIXING things!
Or…. it’s time for an “all hands on deck” march ON Washington DC that will make Jan 6th pale in comparison……

Robin Boyd
Robin Boyd
2 years ago

We need more of a President Trump attitude in Congress regardless of which political party it comes from. President Trump is not a staunch conservative and he opposes D.C. Swamp dwellers from either party. Too many Socialist Democrats.

Jerry Gregoire
Jerry Gregoire
1 year ago

I think the Dems have given up on 2022. Sure they will try to blunt the carnage and the talking point of ‘It wasn’t as bad as everyone thought.’ is likely already printed on memos to go out. I think they are pinning their hopes on 2024. That would require a significant change in the #1 issue: The economy. And it could change. But it is only 2 1/2 years away and who do they have? Biden, Clinton, Sanders, Warren? Between being Biden on steroids to toxic they need a more palatable candidate. Yang or Buttigieg? Perhaps but these guys never had chance even in their own primaries. Conversely, the Republicans have a host of well known candidates: Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Pence, Pompeo, with Trump being the most popular on the right and vilified on the left. The remaining are largely respected by the majority of the American public. It is possible that we will see a return to sanity for sometime to come. Let’s hope so.

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