Newsline

Newsline , Society

Big Electoral Change – Coming

Posted on Tuesday, September 14, 2021
|
by AMAC, Robert B. Charles
|
34 Comments
biden vote, voting buttons

Narrowing 100 data points to one line – which points somewhere – is tough in 800 words. Bear with me. Horrible leadership is hard to cover. Biden proves the point. His polls are in freefall as his decisions on Afghanistan, vaccine mandates, economy, rule of law are awful. But something else is afoot – and fascinating. Off-year elections, shadows of 2022, could be a surprise.

Here is the lay of land and what it means. Three off-year governors’ elections will happen in two months, Virginia, New Jersey, and California’s recall (in two weeks). With Democrats controlling the White House, Senate and House – VP just campaigned in California – one would expect Democrat wins.

Here is the surprise – looking closely, this is not the rumbling rails suggest. Polls are illuminating. In Virginia, Hillary Clinton’s moneyman and former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe – haunted by pseudo- scandals – fights to keep an edge, battling fresh, high-integrity Republican Glenn Youngkin.

According to Virginia polling, even with a 7-4 congressional seat advantage, the split is statistically even, with McAuliffe holding off Youngkin, 47 to 45. Moreover, trending is toward Youngkin, who was behind by nine points just three weeks ago. See, e.g., Virginia Gubernatorial Race Heats Up; McAuliffe leads Youngkin by slim margin in Virginia gubernatorial race.

Interestingly, battlelines center on COVID response and economy. McAuliffe has hitched his wagon to Biden’s – now falling – star. While candidates urge masks and vaccines, the Republican says rights take precedent, opposing heavy-handed mandates. The Democrat favors them. Similarly, the Republican is pro-business, Democrat unapologetically pro-government.

Likely, Bidens’ unforgivable debacle in Afghanistan will not help the Democrats. Nor will his angry, autocratic, anti-freedom speech hammering half the country for free choices and doubt.

In California, a similar picture exists. While Newsom, beleaguered Democrat governor, says he is sure to win – that is, defeat his recall – moderate Democrats swarm with Republicans.

The formerly left-tilting San Francisco mayor (seven years), lieutenant governor (eight more), and the three-year governor has no room to hide. Caught in recurring hypocrisy, author of COVID bungling, mass homelessness, water rationing, high crime, and taxes, fleeing tax base, spluttering economy, he owns it.

With 24 Republicans and nine Democrats after his seat, the recall could be a rout. If so, Republican candidates like Larry Elder, African American, incisive, famous could win.

Given that both races should not be tight – change is afoot. Democrat stock is falling. If New Jersey is more Democrat, even that race – featuring an incumbent – could swerve.

Looking broadly at congressional races in 2022, odds get better weekly. As the economy, including inflation, unemployment, spending, debt, interest rates, get worse – and as Biden-Harris continue to mishandle foreign policy, security, crime, and COVID, Democrats decline.

The Senate is split 50-50, Harris as the tiebreaker. The House is Democrat-controlled by 220-209. That means one Senate pick-up, a handful in the House – and everything changes. If both chambers flip, impeachments, legislative vetoes, investigations are possible – balance.

What are the odds? Nationally, with redistricting (tipping Republicans), traditional losses in midterms for a president – even a good one – suggest a likely flip of both chambers.

This is an unusual election cycle. People of all persuasions – except far left – are increasingly distressed, dissatisfied, frightened of this White House, motivated to check recklessness.

Looking at these Democrat states – things suggest a tip. Not clear is how fast or far. Warner and Kaine in Virginia are associated with bad judgment – and support Biden. Kaine was Hillary’s running mate. Neither is up this cycle, but their influence is in decline.

Likewise, several Virginia House Democrat seats could flip. If the electorate grows sicker of Biden, House races will pay. Of eleven seats, seven are Democrat, Alaine Luria, Bobby Scott, Donald McEachin, Abigail Spanberger, Donald Beyer Jr, Jennifer Wexton, and Gerald Connolly.

That said, none escapes scrutiny. Of the seven Democrats, Luria, Riggleman, and Spanberger were close, and each could tighten in 2022, especially if the economy tanks, COVID restrictions, and resentment grow, terrorism, crime, or drug deaths rise.

Elected as moderates, some have turned leftist. For example, Spanberger seems to have taken a hard left, now faces a level-headed Republican, Taylor Keeney – founder of Little Hands Virginia, a non-profit providing resources to mothers and children in need, former press secretary for a Republican governor, tied to Teach America. See, e.g., Taylor will put VA-07 first. Let’s do this Virginia!.

In New Jersey, while races tip Democrat, three of 12 seats were tight in 2020 – and could be in 2022, including Andy Kim, Jeff Van Drew, and Tom Malinowski. Small changes could prevail.

Likewise, in California, the recall, disaffection with Biden-Harris, economic collapse, border mess, foreign policy nightmares, elevated crime, terrorism, or tension – could tip seats. Forty-two of California’s 53 House seats are Democrat – and face political headwinds.

Moreover, redistricting based on the 2020 census cost Democrats one congressional seat and one electoral vote. Trends push away from Democrats, as Republicans got three new seats in 2020. Biden approval ratings dip in new public opinion poll.

What does it all mean? Simply put, these states should look bluer than blue, all Democrat. They do not. Instead, Republican sentiment grows in all three, from governors to Congress.

Taken in context, as red states getting strong in their convictions, under intense attack from an angry, ignoble, at times seemingly off-the-wall and extrajudicial White House – the 2022 cycle seems increasingly likely to move from blue-purple to purple-red to red. With these states as a touchstone, Congress may flip, allowing a return to credible constitutional checks on Biden.

Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.

We hope you've enjoyed this article. While you're here, we have a small favor to ask...

The AMAC Action Logo

Support AMAC Action. Our 501 (C)(4) advances initiatives on Capitol Hill, in the state legislatures, and at the local level to protect American values, free speech, the exercise of religion, equality of opportunity, sanctity of life, and the rule of law.

Donate Now
Share this article:
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
34 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

Only 18+ states did electorial change to date otherwise rerun 2020 for Blue States, All red States

Honey
Honey
2 years ago

This all depends if somehow we can stop the two bills coming up from passing.
If the next big spending bill gets passed and signed into law, it has legalization of 8,000,000 illegals and then giving them the right to vote. Catastrophic. It has spending that will destroy our economy completely.
And if the unconstitutional nationalization of election law bill passes, we will never have free and fair election ever again and we will be a communist tyranny by the end of this year.

So unless we can stop these two bills from becoming law, since the Supreme Court is taking a nap, it is futile to conjecture about who is up and down.

Sue
Sue
2 years ago

Voter fraud has already begun in CA. It boils down to who controls the machines.
“It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes” – Stalin

Ron ' Bing ' Crosby
Ron ' Bing ' Crosby
2 years ago

Looks like Marxism is slowing down. Need more money in conservative representatives pockets. Peloise goes to her winery and collects millions of dollars . Let’s have a cruise designed for conservative millionaires and raise millions . All you need is LOVE ( political is Money).

Stephane
Stephane
2 years ago

Let us see reality! In California, the Conservative voters, at the voting booth, we’re told they had voted ALREADY!
THE DEMON RATS have put the fix in!
Unless we destroy the DEMON RATS, NOW, INSTANTLY, IN THE COURTS, the DEMON RATS will control the country for the next thousand years wit XI at the head!

Anthony Dell'Isola
Anthony Dell'Isola
2 years ago

Although I want Larry Elder to win, the Democrats will cheat and Newsom will bat back the recall. Cheating will prevail again.

Kathy S
Kathy S
2 years ago

If this were a fair and square election, then yes I would agree with you. However, these demons are still cheating and stealing votes. We still have dominion voting machines so the fix is in.

CoNMTX
CoNMTX
2 years ago

I wish I could believe that things will change for the better but I cannot. Voting is rigged and the democ-rats will cheat, lie and do anything it takes to win. They always have only now they do it openly without trying to hide what globalist rats they are.

D.P.
D.P.
2 years ago

My greatest fear is the by the time these elections come to pass, it may just be too late to turn the corner our ship of state is making…..that the results of the elections, should they favor with capacity, the conservative side of things, may put us in a position that has become a mountain too steep to climb….a wall too hard to dismantle, and a process in place that is cruising like a run-away train.
While I intend to vote against all democratic powers, I fear it may be not enough and not capable to stem the tide, reverse the effect and regain the status of “republic.” for our nation. So much damage has already been done that will take decades to repair. So far down the course of failure have we gone that change will be near impossible for a speedy result. I will vote. I will stand with the Constitution and rule of law and all that is worthy of this republic, I pray there will be enough standing for the same things to render the liberals inert and put us back on track. I pray.

Rick
Rick
2 years ago

I have serious doubts about 2022 being a free and fair election. I don’t see the
Dem-o-rats surrendering power without serious high-jinks. They have no shame
and will do whatever needed to retain power. I believe this is where civil strife will begin

Carla
Carla
2 years ago

If anyone wants any of the democratic held seats to flip, we need to correct our election issues. Democrats obviously control that, using massive fraud to win. This needs to be the first deciding step to stop them.

shhhhhhhh
shhhhhhhh
2 years ago

2020 election fraud ain’t fixed. More fraud are expected. Democrats win at will. GOP is useless.

Judy
Judy
2 years ago

Any chance of hope for an election period is going to be quashed by Biden’s future executive order to either shut down the country or require all voting establishments to enforce the COVID Vaccine…..or some other stupid unconstitutional mandate on American Citizens. The demons will stop at nothing in making it impossible for Conservatives to vote. It would be a blessing if things could go our way. I’m not holding my breath. No one is holding the traitors in our government responsible for one single crime against the people of this country. No one is able to support us. God help us!!

Oz
Oz
2 years ago

Massive mail in ballots fraud will ensure continued Democratic control. The left got away with it once so why would they consider changing?

Ryans Dad
Ryans Dad
2 years ago

Whoa!! What a bunch of wimps!

Here in Nevada we will be at every polling and counting and we will be bearing arms!! We will ensure Sheriff Deputies (in many. cases “Special Deputies “ will be carefully examining each and every vote to ensure a valid election!

If All Of You whiners don’t get actively involved, you don’t deserve to be called “Americans!”

Linda Huss
Linda Huss
2 years ago

Fraud has already been reported in California. Several republicans ladies shower up to vote and were told they had already voted. As they were walking out several more said they were told the same thing. They were allowed to vote provisionally. Hope those votes are counted and not thrown away.

PTSD THX Joey
PTSD THX Joey
2 years ago

JUST IN – VOTING FRAUD in CALIF –
Republican voters being told they voted already, HUH!! ??
Candice Owen is getting emails or texts on this as well.
WHO would of thot that voting there would be crooked
Newsom is CROOKED indeed. Makes ya wonder how much
he has in overseas bank accounts.
Not sure tho Larry can fix that sewer of a state.

I LEFT MN for somewhat the same reasons – one crooked system.
Best thing there is Health Care tho. or it was 7 yrs ago.
But taxes and Government wanting more and more was enuf, BYE!!

PUT UP THE WALL//PIPELINE back//CLOSE BORDERS.
GET RID of the Demander and Thief. USLESS indeed.

Patty Hanson
Patty Hanson
2 years ago

I have grown immeasurably weary of being fed “false optimism” about the integrity of future elections. UNTIL WE GO BACK TO USING PAPER BALLOTS … IN PERSON … REQUIRING VOTER IDENTIFICATION … AND ALLOWING MONITORS….. We Will NEVER Again Have A Legitimate Election Result.

Sally
Sally
2 years ago

I pray you are right in all of this. It always takes a while for the pendulam to swing, but if the American people will quit being so squishy and grow a spine, stand up for our country, we can make it happen, sooner than later!

Becky
Becky
2 years ago

I think with the demonRat Commies in Cali cheating enough to stave off a well deserved recall, voting will matter little.

Cindy
Cindy
2 years ago

Refreshing point of view! It gives me hope. Kinda like Princess Leia said in Star Wars about the Empire, “The more you tighten your grip the more that will slip through your fingers.”

Karen
Karen
2 years ago

Hey all…….REPS in Va and Calif MUST WIN!!!!!!!!!!

HocasPocas
HocasPocas
2 years ago

Reality check, ccp still running election processes in US. Unless the rigging is fixed, I see an all out war in 2022 and it will not be at the ballot box

An older blonde women laughing in the kitchen with a grey haired man.
AMAC’s Medicare Advisory Service
The knowledge, guidance, and choices of coverage you’re looking for. The exceptional service you deserve.
The AMAC App on 3 different iPhone
Download the AMAC App
The AMAC App is the place to go for insightful news wherever you are and whenever you want.
Ronald Reagan makes a dapper picture with a boutonniere in his lapel. The occasion was Reagan`s address before the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations on St. Patrick`s Day, March 17, 1980. At the time, the former movie actor and two-term California governor was running for the Republican Party nomination for president.
Usa and Venezuela Realistic Half Flags Together
US House of Representatives - January 6th Committee Logo
Biden Admin’s War on Women

Stay informed! Subscribe to our Daily Newsletter.

"*" indicates required fields

34
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x

Subscribe to AMAC Daily News and Games