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Behind Democrats’ Disarray: They Know They Are Doomed

Posted on Thursday, October 14, 2021
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AMAC Exclusive – By Daniel Roman

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Any ordinary American tuning in to coverage of American politics to learn what the Biden White House or the Pelosi/Schumer Congress plans to do about the multitude of problems facing the country – from the border to China’s aggression, to even whether their dollar savings will be worth anything in a few months – would have found themselves out of luck over the last few weeks. The narrative of American governance has become all about Democratic politicians fighting and negotiating with each other, with farcical scenes such as a Democratic senator from Arizona refusing to return phone calls from the President of the United States –a member of her own party.

While the media has been happy to follow Democrats down this rabbit hole of factions, personal rivalries, and technical disputes, the big picture has been lost. The Democratic Party’s current infighting is not that of a victorious and all-powerful party struggling to decide what to do with its victory. Instead, it is the panicked reaction of a party that understands it was largely defeated in November 2020 and is struggling to find a path forward in the aftermath.

By “defeated” in 2020, we must be very clear what we mean: while Joe Biden is President, and Democrats nominally control the Senate 51-50 with the vote of Vice President Harris, that is not where, for the better part of four years prior to November 2020, the polls or most Democrats believed they would be following last year’s election.

The results in 2020 came as a shock to Democrats for several reasons. First, Joe Biden’s official margin of victory, while slightly larger than Obama’s in 2012 at 51.26% to 46.8%, was half the size that polls, such as Nate Silver’s 538, had showed, at 51.8% to 43.4%. But even more concerning for Democrats, the locations of the polling error tended to be not in places where Democrats were strong, but rather either in swing areas where they hoped for gains, or areas where Obama had done well in 2008 and 2012, but Trump had won in 2016. In effect, Democrats won areas they felt were moving in their direction such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin by far less than they expected, and lost states they thought were close such as Iowa, Ohio, and Florida by much larger margins.

The implications of this in the Presidential race were obscured by the fact that the numbers showed Biden won. But they were keenly felt in the Senate races, where Democrats lost races in Iowa and North Carolina where they believed they were favored, and their candidates did worse than Biden even where he won, such as in Michigan and Maine. The result at the time was to leave the Senate at 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, a situation transformed by the victory of Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock against a dysfunctional Georgia GOP in January 2021. Nonetheless, it was ominous and it set the tone for Democratic behavior in 2021.

In light of these results, we can understand that the reason Democrats are now obsessing the filibuster is not because they have a mere 50 seats in the Senate. When Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut calls out Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema for blocking legislation that 48 Democrats support, he is doing so not because he believes they are likely to be 50 or 52 Senators for it in the future but because he is pretty sure 50 is as good as it is going to get. In 2008, Democrats won 60 Senate seats, and while with hindsight we can see this was a high-water mark, at the time Democrats dreamed bigger. After all, Mitch McConnell had only won 53%-47% in 2008. There were also open seats in states Obama had won in 2008 such as New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida coming up in 2010, and there was a path to a Democratic supermajority.

That is not the case after 2020. In 2020, only Susan Collins won reelection in a state won by the Presidential candidate of the opposing party. Democratic challengers, including strong ones such as Montana’s two-term governor, Steve Bullock lost, and lost badly (by 10% in Bullock’s case). This was also not just a 2020 phenomenon. Despite a good year for Democrats overall in 2018, Democratic incumbent Senators lost in Florida, Indiana, and Missouri that year.

Biden’s underperformance scared Democrats because it indicated a ceiling, rather than a floor for their strength.

In 2022, Democrats will be defending Senate seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire, all states that went to Biden, but within margins whereby strong GOP challengers, which exist in all those states, could win. More problematically, the list of Democratic targets includes only Pennsylvania and Wisconsin among states Biden won, and North Carolina and Florida among states Trump won by less than landslide margins. Matching Biden exactly would get the Democrats a gain of two seats; but even in 2020 most Democratic candidates ran behind Biden, and Biden is himself deeply unpopular today.

The situation in the House is, if anything, worse for the Democrats. Democrats lost 12 House seats in 2020. The impact of redistricting is overblown – Republicans will gain a marginal advantage from the lines, but census results show the areas growing most quickly lean Democrat – yet nonetheless, the Democrat position is so weak that any deterioration in Biden’s position will be fatal to their 2022 hopes.

In effect, the 2021 Democratic majorities are on a “death watch,” and Democrats’ confused attempts to deal with that realization is determining their current erratic behavior.

The split in the party is not so much between the moderates and the progressives. It is between progressives and moderates who desire political futures and those who know they have none. Pelosi is able to generally pass left-wing legislation in the House despite her narrow majority because many of her moderates know they are doomed no matter what, and are willing to cast their votes for the progressive agenda. In turn, AOC and the Squad feel free to sabotage any compromises because their own seats are safe and they believe they have time to fight another day, even if it is ten years from now. By contrast, both Sinema and Manchin seem to resent the efforts of other Democrat officials to pressure them to commit political suicide or behave as if they personally are doomed, just because it is true of some of their colleagues. In particular, rhetoric out of the Democrat caucus that Manchin is “probably in his last term anyway” or that Sinema “won’t win reelection” seems predicated on the idea that both should act as if they are finished and behave accordingly.

That appears to be the idea behind the left-wing belief that physically threatening Sinema, stalking her into restrooms, and following Manchin on vacation, will somehow make them give up and realize they need to act as if they are as doomed, as does the rest of the caucus, and get what progressives want passed now.

Part of the reason this is unlikely to be effective is that Sinema and Manchin, if convinced that they truly have no future in the Democrat Party, may not behave in the way left-wing activists wish. Those activists may be able to ensure Sinema and Manchin have no future in primaries, but their sway in general elections only matters if the two Senators face Republicans. It may well be that one or both may see a party switch or an independent run as a way to preserve their positions and even hit back.

This might be evident to those activists pressing Manchin and Sinema if they were not almost schizophrenically convinced, they represent majority sentiment at the same time they are worried Democrats are doomed in 2022. David Shor, who at 20 ran Obama’s data team in 2012, has been outspoken over the last several weeks regarding the dominance of young, college-educated, party workers and activists on the Democratic side who are disconnected from most Americans on the issues, but especially disconnected from the more moderate, non-white voters Democrats need. While Shor is pessimistic as well, his reason for pessimism — that demographics did not deliver for Democrats because Democrats alienated the voters they were counting on –would require those activists to admit fault. Instead, they prefer to blame their failures on a lack of “mobilization”, in other words, that they did not go left enough.

Hence, in the minds of these left-wing activists, if Democrats are doomed, it is because of the refusal of Sinema and Manchin, two of the most successful Democratic politicians, to end their political careers, rather than because the rest of the party refuses to listen to two of their members who have been most successful at winning over voters who might normally be expected to back Republicans.

Grasping these seemingly paradoxical convictions that prevail among the Democratic elite– that on the one hand, Democrats are facing mass voter defections, and that on the other hand moderates like Manchin and Sinema are to blame for their political misfortunes–is the key to understanding the weird intellectual death spiral the left of the Democratic party has fallen into.

Shor argues that the real problem with this progressive clique of largely white, privileged, young college grads is not their views on specific policies, but their inability to listen or interact with anyone who is not part of their ideological in-group. That is on full display with the disputes that are currently tearing the Democratic Party apart, the left’s treatment of Sinema and Manchin, and the likely failure of Biden’s domestic agenda.

Daniel Roman is the pen name of a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics.

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Eddie Van Halen
Eddie Van Halen
2 years ago

Can’t trust polling. At ALL.

Eddie Van Halen
Eddie Van Halen
2 years ago

The civil war is one about fighting ( D ) communist takeover.

Eddie Van Halen
Eddie Van Halen
2 years ago

What keeps that turd alive is beyond me.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

Hooray, awesome

Jerry
Jerry
2 years ago

All of the common sense facts and figures in this article are of no effect if the Democrats succeed in rigging elections as they did so blatantly in 2020. Saying that “Democrats won areas they felt were moving in their direction such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin by far less than they expected, and lost states they thought were close such as Iowa, Ohio, and Florida by much larger margins” downplays the fact that they had to cheat in order to even get to those numbers. If it were not for the millions of dubious mail-in ballots in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, those states would not have been close at all.

Bill
Bill
2 years ago

We can only hope.

Christian
Christian
2 years ago

We watched the election get shut down in the middle of the night. Trump won! Anybody with a brain knows it and anybody with a strong spine for truth and reality will not bend to the Big Lie.

Amac better S-CAN any woke ass-wipe, any member of cancel culture, and any censorship idiot within it’s organizational ranks.
Real Americans fighting for Real America aren’t taking prisoners. All traitors, all imposters must die. Amac can crap or get of the john roberts! There’s no Switzerland in this battle. There’s no Switzerland in Paradise either.
You take a firm unyielding stand for The People and Their Constitution or get out!

Edward Pratt
Edward Pratt
2 years ago

Fraud vitiates everything. Forensic Audit all 50 states. Let’s see what the real numbers are when only the legal, valid votes get counted.

swamp is still there
swamp is still there
2 years ago

Unless we remove the Dominion machines nationwide, we will never have another election with results we can actually trust.

Nationwide fraud right in front of our noses.

They then blatantly stole the Senate used the EXACT SAME MEANS, and nothing was done.

Becky
Becky
2 years ago

The democrat party doomed itself back in the 80s when it chose to attack American citizens for ‘defiling’ politics by electing Reagan for our President.
At that time, they literally began “politicizing” every issue in this country. What was good for America, or it’s citizens, was booted from their scale of ‘things to do’. It wasn’t even in last place. “Good for America” was deliberately erased from their agenda. Punishing the citizenry became their total purpose.
That was no honest “purpose” in the 80s, nor at any future time. The demonRat party murdered itself choosing to act like Mafia thugs.
Good.

Doug
Doug
2 years ago

in NH, we have the same issue, the southern part of the state is full of liberals who care nothing about the American dream. And the Democrat party is strong. The county i am in is the poorest and smallest and most conservative.

J. Farley
J. Farley
2 years ago

The Republicans can only win, if we have a fair election and only count the legal votes, the Demonrats have more ways to rig an election than you can count, they cannot win a free and fair election, only in the hell hole of the big Cities and even there the voters are getting tired of their thumbs on everybody Government, and their Gestapo tactics, going after people who only want to exorcise size their constitutional rights.
The Democrat party is made up of liars, cheaters, and all other kinds of despots if you don’t feel you are one of these, you should not be a Democrat, they are not freedom loving Americans.

Lizzy
Lizzy
2 years ago

We may pick up seats this election BUT COMMUNISM is here and they WILL NOT STOP with their agenda. The colleges,High & secondary schools and now kindergartens are taught by radicals pushing a Marxist curriculum! The problem of 100/plus unloaded ships in california ports is CAUSED by UNION labor working with the current gov. California LAW requires ONLY union truckers NOT independant truckers to truck from the docks. Union truckers are in the POCKET w/ the Biden Cartel!! As usual., the gov causes the problem THEN comes in to solve it –thus YOUR dependency on the gov. FJB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Let’s GO BRANDON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

dave
dave
2 years ago

The record shows that massive fraud made states like AZ, PA, MI, WS, GA and the like appear to have gone for Biden. The truth will come out

Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
2 years ago

RE; Election. Fixed or not, there was enough evadence it should have been looked into. Sometimes I have to wonder could the Supreme Court have had a hand in it. Kyle L.

Hunter Biden
Hunter Biden
2 years ago

Stopped reading when it said Beijing Biden is President. No he is not. THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN!! TRUMP WON!!

George Washington's Admirer
George Washington's Admirer
2 years ago

States deeply divided on many issues. Democrats have failed to define their party platform. Politics has plunged into the sea; akin to medieval darkness. There is no ‘Captain At The Helm’. Just bureaucratic wishy-washy policy. No honor for Our Constitution or The Bill of Rights. No deference for Our Founding Fathers. Censorship and fear abounding. Thought, Reasoning, and Enlightenment Snuffed Out. Democrats have ushered in the return of The Dark Ages.

LeRoy
LeRoy
2 years ago

Please remove your Chit Chat crap from my screen!!!!!!!

Wayne Peterkin
Wayne Peterkin
2 years ago

The Democrats are doomed only if the elections are honest nationwide, and they may not be honest enough to get the results our country needs. The Democrats are working furiously to open doors to more election fraud and that fraud has been growing worse for a very long time and radically worse in 2020. The ends justify the means to any lefty. The Democrats will lie, cheat, and steal to get and retain political power. Do not underestimate them. Pelosi’s HR4 Election Fraud Bill if passed would destroy this nation. No democracy can survive if the voters are not confident that election results are honest, and they were not honest in 2020 and Pelosi is trying to make sure they never will be again. 2022 will be very good for conservatives if and only if honesty prevails.

D. Brown
D. Brown
2 years ago

DemonRats “doomed”? The only “doom” I want to see for them is of a more permanent nature. May these evil vermin burn in h*ll.

Wanda
Wanda
2 years ago

They would not have won those states had they not cheated with voter fraud and voting machines flipping votes. We will be more closely watching the polls next year…you can bet your sweet @zz on that and it may turn violent on the ones trying to cheat…America is getting angrier with every Communist E.O. that this illegal president signs off on.

TimToroian
TimToroian
2 years ago

And their next campaign will be “We know it is broken but only we can fix it”.

John Rademacher
John Rademacher
2 years ago

I don’t know how we can call ourselves The USofA any more. We have an appointed, not elected president! Our government is not for the people. Our people are now for the governments manipulation and profit. We left Kansas a decades ago. As a nation we continue to be comfortably blind!

MariaRose
MariaRose
2 years ago

When will people realize that the party you are registered for as a voter doesn’t guarantee the choices you the voter are going to take when you vote. I expect, no Demand, that my Choices are counted. The political party of the candidate doesn’t make my decision but their actual performance versus their rhetoric determines how I vote. Too many people are voting blindly because are blind followers of a public figure who care very little about the people they are representing. There’s to much rhetoric but not one politician is creating results. Very few actually vote pro for the proposals they are pushing. But they expect us to accept what they say as absolute truth. Sorry NO— but they have to actually do as they say to get me to believe them.

Amacer
Amacer
2 years ago

I find it ridiculously hard to believe that more than half the country is pleased with the Democrat Party’s depraved agenda. But do you see the anomaly? They lost big time in the House but won the presidency with the election process fraught with hints of shenanigans and chicanery.

The Democrats CHEAT in elections, and I would not be surprised if their primary focus now is in refining their subterfuge to ensure they win every election of significance in the future and stay in power permanently.

So yes, the Democrats are worried, but yes, they will stay in power permanently because the supine Republican party does not have the temerity to investigate, pursue, and indict. Don’t believe me? I haven’t heard of any Democrat pollster who blocked Republican pollsters from monitoring their election tally process brought to justice, have you?

Lawlessness has prevailed ever since Obama became president. That was thirteen years ago, and it is fast accelerating. I’m sorry to say this, but I have lost a lot of confidence in our criminal system, even our Constitution. Both can only succeed with a moral and righteous populace, but we are declining on both … rapidly.

anna hubert
anna hubert
2 years ago

Assuming that St,George managed to slay the dragon in DC what then ? We managed to produce generations of helpless meowing kittens and useless dependents on government teat what good are they for? We are living the nightmare they’ve created now .It will take hard times and endurance to produce men.

Sherri
Sherri
2 years ago

Let’s be clear: Joe Biden did not win the presidential election fairly. No one believes this diminished shell of a man who hid in his basement for months during the campaign received more votes than Obama and Trump. It’s a total farce. Biden’s poor decisions one after another will send him and Democrats in the House and Senate packing in the next few years. Voters are woke to the fact their reckless policies put this country in shambles. It will be up to the new breed of Republicans to claim seats and make things right.

Eddie Van Halen
Eddie Van Halen
2 years ago

If mail-in voting is still allowed the communists ( D ) will always maintain their death grip on America. Absentee voting is one thing. Mail-in voting is the dead voting and illegals voting. And photo ID ? Need one to get on a damn plane. Love America. I hate it’s current govt.

Steven
Steven
2 years ago

The Communist Dems may know they are doomed at the polls but they also know they’ve just about completed their mission of destroying this country. All done without a shot being fired…just because of a bunch of spineless snowflakes.

Lee S McQuillen
Lee S McQuillen
2 years ago

The treatment Sinema and Manchin are getting is abhorrent. I would think it might make them even more determined to do what they think is right, which is where they are now standing. As a registered Republican, I’d consider voting for either of them even though they are Democrats. Perhaps they are the old-fashioned real Democrats. I hope they continue of their path of right.

Eric The Patriot
Eric The Patriot
2 years ago

By “defeated” in 2020, I must be very clear what I mean: Joe Biden is NOT our President!! He is in office due to massive voter fraud in 2020. We cannot and WILL NOT move forward until the voter fraud of 2020 is fixed and a real investigation is done about the real insurrection on November 3rd!

#MAGA
#StopTheSteal
#Demand50 StateForensicAudit

Bob L.
Bob L.
2 years ago

The razor thin margins in Congress were also as the result of election fraud. If the 2020 election had been uncorrupted, the Democrats would be far from having much say in Washington at all.

You can bet the preparations for 2022 are in full motion to corrupt it even more than in 2020 – IF there is an election at all. I wouldn’t be surprised if some “national emergency” erupted and the elections cancelled.

Geraldine McGann
Geraldine McGann
2 years ago

As a Republican in AZ, I am glad Sinema (D-AZ) represents her constituents fairly well by not giving in to the whims of Biden and the “progressives”. She already met with Biden and said what she thought. Why would she waste her time on his continued attempts to strong-arm her?
Kelly (D-AZ) on the other hand needs to be voted OUT. In 2020 Biden and Kelly were purportedly voted in by AZ. when most others that won on the ballot were Republicans. “They, MSM and Democrats” wonder why we believe there was fraud!

George
George
2 years ago

As long as the democrats control the ballot boxes, they will win elections.

Dar
Dar
2 years ago

Sounds like 2010 all over again.

Doug
Doug
2 years ago

The media is happy to follow the democrats down the rabbit hole?! The “media”, simply morally depraved democrat party propaganda outlets, are working over-time to cover for Biden’s gross incompetence and the destruction he is doing to our republic.

Judy
Judy
2 years ago

Through the Commie Marxists illegal immigration policies, they are rushing their new found Marxist Party voters through our Southern border. They know, that we know what they did in Nov. 2020. They will make certain that they never lose this coming election. America as we knew it is toast! The only recourse we have left is to pray for a miracle…and wait on the LORD.

BillCarson
BillCarson
2 years ago

If only this were true. Americans seem to like this new communism as far as I can tell

B4&After
B4&After
2 years ago

The democrats are only ‘Doomed’ if we get the vote machines and process fixed. Have we gotten this fixed? No. We have not. So, there goes the 2022 elections down the drain. Soon, we won’t need to hold elections at all. It’s nothing more than false drama now.

D.P.
D.P.
2 years ago

Sadly, it appears the dems are far better at the political game and even while they are seemingly falling apart, they seem to have the magical capacity to pull rabbits out of the hat time and again. I have little trust in their words or actions and not much even when it comes to the repubs. Being “doomed” may sound good, but as they have said and done in the past, they won’t let a crisis go to waste. They are more like a “medussa” when one snakehead is severed, another grows back… Unfortunately, the majority of Americans are still far too self-centered to see the reality of what is happening. Most people have no clue, and are so complacent, they could care less. And the dems are quite adept at capitalizing on just this kind of “crisis of doom”.

Henker
Henker
2 years ago

If Democrats are doomed, and I pray they are, it’s because of their racist and Communist ghetto ideology and desire to tk destroy the USA.

Judy
Judy
2 years ago

It is no longer the Democrat Party as once was…it is the Progressive Marxist Party. They’ve been brewing ever since the Clinton’s were in the White house, and maybe even before. Biden’s phoney admin. is sealing the deal with their illegal influx of migrants at our Southern border. I’m sure they’re giving them all the propaganda info and lies non Americans coming here need to vote Democrat. These demons running our government including the RINOS are making sure they stay in power. We will never have a Constitutionally legal election again.
Pray for a miracle, that’s all we can do.

walstir
walstir
2 years ago

This is why talk of a New New Deal is so pretentious – FDR had huge majorities rather than razor thin ones.

Adler Pfingsten
Adler Pfingsten
2 years ago

Next week I will be filing a motion in federal court that will change every calculation; I will be seeking a TRO to bind AG Merrick Garland and the agencies from acting on the October 4th memorandum targeting parents…until empirical, mathematical, evidence the God of Sinai, Yeshua and 1776 exists and is fully engaged is analyzed.

If one cares to partake a taste of the evidence go to   givesendgo.com/G26Y5

Steve
Steve
2 years ago

I would not adopt an air of strong confidence just yet. Anything can happen in American politics. 2020 was a sufficient example of that. That being combined with the fact that the Republican Party is trash itself and is nothing more than a mere speed bump for Democrats should give everyone pause and to stay alert to what’s going on.

Michael Flair
Michael Flair
2 years ago

The various democratic factions are in full flame wars, 2 weeks until Oct 31st Halloween Recon Bill, how appropriate like voting on a zombie. Will Pelosi pull the physical infrastructure bill again? Will she even put up a human recon bill (Senate too) this year? Already Dem Leadership is already proposing another recon bill next year early 2022, but same problems will exist then, as it exists now.

Amelia Little
Amelia Little
2 years ago

I hope that, in their desperation, they don’t go full force and hit all stops on the marxist agenda. Just let them keep roiling and unable to accomplish anything. And, pray that in 2022 that Republicans will take both houses by large majorities. Hope pelosi, good ol’ maxine, shiffff, nadler and friends all lose their elections in 2022. Even better if they all just don’t go for re-election.

Jerry
Jerry
2 years ago

The DemonRats are doomed unless they forgot how to cheat .

Sherry
Sherry
2 years ago

I’m not sure I believe elections will ever be fair and just again. I read a report from Newsmax this morning that Mark Zuckerberg spent over 400 million dollars to basically buy the 2020 election with focus on the swing states. God is our only hope.

Free Stater
Free Stater
2 years ago

Perhaps they’re doomed for the short term. But the long term goal of the Democrat Party is to fundamentally transform the electorate via the promotion of illegal immigration (now en masse) and enfrancising the newcomers. A one-party socialist state can only result.

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