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America Is Losing the Battle of the Red Sea

Posted on Tuesday, September 10, 2024
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by Outside Contributor
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Even by the Middle Eastern standards, the past year has been full of surprises. A bolt-from-the-blue attack by Hamas produced the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. The resulting Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has now lasted longer than nearly anyone first imagined. Iran launched perhaps the largest drone and missile strike in history against Israel, which was blunted by unprecedented cooperation from countries in the region and beyond.

Yet the biggest surprise is also the most ominous for global order. A radical, quasi-state actor most Americans had never heard of, the Houthis of Yemen, have mounted the gravest challenge to freedom of the seas in decades — and arguably beaten a weary superpower along the way.

The Houthis began their campaign against shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, in late 2023. They are nominally attacking out of sympathy for the Palestinian people, but also to gain stature within the so-called Axis of Resistance, a group of Middle Eastern proxies cultivated by Iran.

In January, Washington responded with Operation Prosperity Guardian, which features defensive efforts (largely by US destroyers) to shield shipping from drones and missiles, and also airstrikes against Houthi attack capabilities within Yemen. The results have been middling at best.

The Houthis have cut Suez Canal traffic by more than half, starving Egypt of toll revenues. They have bankrupted the Israeli port of Eilat in the Gulf of Aqaba. Nearly a year on, the group appears less deterred than emboldened: It recently crippled an oil tanker, threatening a spill with catastrophic environmental consequences. A waterway that carried 10% to 15% of global trade has become a killing zone.

This saga combines dynamics old and new. The Bab el-Mandeb, Arabic for “gate of tears,” has long been a locus of struggle. This chokepoint is surrounded by instability in the southern Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa. That situation has invited conflict and foreign intervention for decades, but the Houthis’ campaign also displays newer global troubles.

One is the falling cost of power-projection. The Houthis aren’t a traditional military juggernaut; they don’t even fully control Yemen. Yet they have employed drones and missiles to control access to vital seas.

The Houthis have had help in doing so: Iran has provided weapons and the know-how needed to manufacture them. But the Red Sea crisis still shows how seemingly minor actors can use relatively cheap capabilities to extend their destructive reach.

The second feature is strategic synergy among US foes. The Houthis became more fearsome thanks to mentorship by Iran and Hezbollah. Since October 2023, they have allowed most of China’s shipping to pass without harm. The Houthis have also received encouragement — and, it seems, direct support — from a Russia that is eager to exact vengeance on Washington.

Beijing and Moscow reap geopolitical rewards when America is burdened by Middle Eastern conflicts, so both are willing to let this crisis fester, or even make it worse.

Further inflaming matters is a third factor: America’s aversion to escalation, which is rooted in military overstretch. A global superpower has been reduced to an inconclusive tit-for-tat with a band of Yemeni extremists. It is an evasion to claim that this very extremism makes the Houthis “undeterrable.”

The core issue is that Washington has hesitated to take stronger measures — such as sinking the Iranian intelligence ship that supports the Houthis, or targeting the infrastructure that sustains their rule within Yemen — for fear of inflaming a tense regional situation.

That approach has limited the near-term risk of escalation, but allowed Tehran and the Houthis to keep the showdown simmering at their preferred temperature. It also reflects the underlying fatigue of a US military that lacks enough cruise missiles, laser-guided bombs, strike aircraft and warships to prosecute the campaign more aggressively without compromising its readiness for conflicts elsewhere.

Thus a fourth feature: The rotting of norms the international community has taken for granted. The global commercial damage caused by the Houthis has actually been limited, thanks to the adaptability of the shipping networks that underpin the world economy. But the precedent is awful: The Houthis have upended freedom of the seas in a crucial area and paid a very modest price.

Russia’s war in Ukraine is simultaneously stressing another bedrock principle, the norm against forcible conquest. Revisionist actors are challenging the global rules that underpin the relative affluence, security and stability of our post-1945 world.

A dramatic course correction by the US probably isn’t imminent. President Joe Biden is still chasing that elusive Israel-Hamas cease-fire; this would at least deprive the Houthis and other Iranian proxies of their pretext for violence, even if no one is really sure whether it would end the Red Sea shipping attacks. He hopes to get through the presidential elections without more trouble with Tehran.

But this muddle-through approach may not survive for long after that. Whoever becomes president in 2025 will have to face the fact that America is losing the struggle for the Red Sea, with all the pernicious global implications that may follow.

Reprinted with permission from AEI by Hal Brands.

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of AMAC or AMAC Action.

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PaulE
PaulE
23 days ago

The reason we’re losing is the U.S. Navy has been ordered to NOT retaliate to win. Another case of the military having its hands tied behind its back by using absurd rules of engagement. Both Obama and Biden administrations did this a lot.

Rather than knocking down the incoming missiles before hitting civilian ships in the area and then targeting the location from which the missiles came from with overwhelming force to obliterate the threat, the Navy has been ordered to limit its response to simply knocking down the incoming missiles and that’s it. Maybe once in a while they are allowed to fire one missile back several hours after the attack to “send a message”. By which time the rebels have already moved out of the area.

anna hubert
anna hubert
23 days ago

The world is upside down and there is no one at home in the WH This is so surreal , we are like kids home alone. There is no leadership and no army fit, equipped and ready to defend.

Don
Don
23 days ago

America can’t defend the Rio Grande.

Spitfire?
Spitfire?
22 days ago

Much if not all of this situation in the Red sea and South Yemen can be blamed on the Labor government of Harold Wilson.In The 1960s when the Brits had a huge base at Aden (RAF KHORMAKSER) With lots of Hunter FGA 9S to “take care” of any bad behavior by the locals the area was relatively peaceful.Then the socialists in the UK decided, with pressure from the U.S.that bases East of Suez were no longer needed.Thus you have todays situation,to the delight of the Russians who always had their evil eyes on that strategic choke point.

David Millikan
David Millikan
22 days ago

No surprise since Dictator Beijing biden Dry Docked 17 of our Navy Ships putting them out of Duty to play politics sucking up to Communist China.

Rob citizenship--
Rob citizenship--
23 days ago

Praise for Hal Brands for this important article. The information about the attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea by the terrorist Houthis group and the attitude of Russia and China about this situation is vital to having an understanding of that part of the world. With Iran providing material support for the Houthis it is a serious development that should be thought about and plans for responding accordingly need to be plans that reflect courage strength and. wisdom on the part of American participation in the situation. The U.S..Navy presence in the Red Sea and providing shielding from drone and missile attacks surely means something positive in the overall picture . The situation in Israel with the terrorist Hamas group as pointed out in the article is something of great importance to consider. Writing this on September 10th,2024 . I have never been to the Middle East , memory of the Cuban Missile Crisis comes to mind ,I was 12 at that time , followed the news about how that developed each day . And realized the importance of being at the ready for conflict that could involve. missiles landing in the United States and it was a pivotal. point in the lives of everyone at that time. Several years later went to a few western European countries to do research on ferry systems and compare how ferries operated there with ferries on the East Coast here. Again , Well done Hal Brands. for this very well written article , it is appreciated.

Pat R
Pat R
23 days ago

The US has never been this vulnerable, at least not in my 82 years of lifetime. My trepidation grows especially since Biblical prophecy does not specifically mention the US exists in the Revelation portrayal of end times – unless the harlot Babylon is another name for the US. It kinda fits under the current administration.

phoenix
phoenix
21 days ago

We are losing because we are not fighting it.
I expect the hoithes will be cleared up within the first quarter of Trump’s presidency.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
21 days ago

“This article must be a lie because Kamala said at their debate for the first time in 20 years, there were no US troops serving anywhere in harms way… this must be why the ABC “fact checkers” said nothing!”They also say nothing about Chinese aggression in the Philippines… must not be happening either! I’m being sarcastic, y’all.

Leslie
Leslie
21 days ago

Iran sure found plenty of bad actors to help spend the $6 billion dollars Joe Biden released to them. Since we know now that he hasn’t really been President, I wonder WHO THE HECK okayed that happening? That government employee should be charged with treason.

FedUp
FedUp
21 days ago

I’d love to hear Kamal’s take on how to end this problem. Except I know we never will.

Lauramerrone
Lauramerrone
21 days ago

I hope Trunp wins and this nonsense stops. Otherwise, woel war will just accelerate…

Kathryn S Davis
Kathryn S Davis
21 days ago

Soon we will not have a military. The Commander in Chief and his helper are not paying attention, nor do they appreciate our military. Just watch Kamala’s salute =disrespectful.

uncleferd
uncleferd
21 days ago

The most damaging cause of this terrible circumstance is the “Democrat” overspending, which will ultimately end our republic as we know it. There is zero legitimacy in “”Democrats” numerous scams involving the spending our tax dollars like play money, in return for “Democrat” votes.

For once
For once
23 days ago

Don’t you just hate it when the Ukrainian kid who droned you in call of duty back in 2010 does it to your Russian naval ship in 2024?

John Shipway
John Shipway
21 days ago

My God, I pay for an AMAC membership to be force fed blatant propaganda? The :”massive missile and drone strike” Iran sent Israels way was, and Im sure Mr. Brands knows this, its just outside his minders narrative, had its targeting info sent to Israel and its co genocidal maniacs, well before the munitions were ever launched and the response so whined about was just that, a response for Israels attack on an Iranian embassy in Syria. An attack on an embassy is an act of war after all. One should give Iran some credit in not having launched attacks that would have leveled Tel Aviv. Perhaps they didn’t want to mirror the actions of Israel who specializes in the mass slaughter of women, children, the elderly and the infirm.
And for goodness sake, an attack on Israel is not an attack on universal “Jewery”, its an attack on an out of control psycho led nation of racist goons. If they worshipped goats their actions would be evil for goodness sake. Additionally, recent polling found that some 61% of non Muslim Israelis considered themselves to be athiest, so perhaps its time to put aside that favorite tool of the Israelis, the old Auschwitz Whine .
And what business is it of the US to even consider regulating what goes on in the Red Sea? Perhaps someone might look into situations like I have to enjoy, that being having inflation forcing me to eat “wish sandwiches” or Ramen the last 7-10 days of each month.

jack smith and his memo ; trump
medicare costs - stethoscope and money with medication
biden-harris administration on Medicare program
joe biden at the white house

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