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AMAC Polls and Predictive Power

Posted on Wednesday, March 10, 2021
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by AMAC, Robert B. Charles
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16 Comments

You probably cannot predict the weather, stock market, or popular children’s names with them, but AMAC member polls – are shockingly accurate in assessing where the nation’s thinking is headed.  Often conducted ahead of national events, past AMAC polls are uncanny predictors of public sentiment.  Put differently, AMAC’s 2.3 million members seem ahead of the curve.

Last week, the Wall Street Journal ran an article entitled “Americans Turn Sour on China, Poll Shows.”  This was not an AMAC poll, but a politically neutral, nationally scattered poll.  Conducted by Pew Research, it showed a sudden pivot – “frostiest views ever toward China.”

On the numbers, Pew showed “nine out of ten” Americans see China as a “competitor or enemy,” a marked turn.  Interestingly, a Gallup poll – also released last week – showed 79 percent of Americans now hold an unfavorable view of China, for the first time ever.

Here is the quirky part.  AMAC is a leading indicator.  Long before national polls showed American sentiment turning, back in April 2018, 19,000 respondents to an AMAC poll revealed 95 percent alignment against China’s overreach.

An AMAC poll in late 2020 revealed rising anti-China sentiment, far outpacing national sentiment toward the Communist country. At the time, 98 percent of 41,000 AMAC respondents opposed China’s supply chain domination in pharmaceuticals. See, e.g., https://amac.us/u-s-dependency-on-china-for-vital-drugs-must-be-curtailed-says-amac-action/.   In time, national polls caught up with AMAC sentiment, but AMAC members were ahead of the curve.

Change the channel.  In December 2020, AMAC members were polled on “biggest issues” that would distinguish the Biden Administration.  National sentiment, at the time, was that Biden would be a unifier, not move to socialist policies, border opening, more federal debt, and would properly balance policy toward China. That is not what AMAC members foresaw.

In contrast to national polls and media hyping Biden’s moderation, AMAC members in late 2020 voiced serious concern.  In rank order, more than twice any other response, some 30,000 AMAC members voiced concerns over “socialism,” or centralization of power.  Second concern was “China,” with 14,000 respondents.  Next two were “illegal immigration” and “national debt.”  See, https://amac.us/poll/2021-issues/.

Looking back, the media got it wrong – whether happy to have done so or not.  AMAC members got it right.  Within 30 days, Biden promulgated 40 executive actions, effectively erasing many diffusions of federal power, aggregating consistent with a socialist drift.  Likewise, he permitted China to lean forward, offering little push-back.  On illegal immigration, he incentivized it, reversed policies deterring it, inviting a border rush by illegal aliens – a term he banned. On debt, he pushed an indefensible plus-up of two trillion dollars for COVID.

Net-net, AMAC members predicted Biden’s behavior with acuity, a trick that is handy, reaffirms member perspective, and offers a bit of prescience even if getting it right is small consolation.

Like Cassandra, AMAC members seem to see around corners, often acutely aware of what the Heartland thinks, as they are the Heartland.  That said, the hope is more of America will begin thinking like AMAC members, not just because AMAC is speaking out, but because the nation needs realism, foresight, honest defense of honorable principles, and an accurate long-view.

AMAC member prescience pops in other polls.  A February 2021 poll sought AMAC member views surrounding the massive, 1.9 trillion-dollar COVID-19 relief bill, which just passed the Senate on March 6.  AMAC members critiqued the bill for insufficient tailoring to public health, massive minimum wage hike, special interest hand-outs, absence of standard abortion restrictions, and adding $14,000 per household to national debt.  See, https://amac.us/poll/third-covid-stimulus-bill/#comments.

Interestingly, whether from AMAC influence or epiphany tied to common sense, AMAC members were spot on.  The Senate insisted, before passing the behemoth, on tailoring to public health, stripping minimum wage, dropping some handouts, and restricting abortion funding – although the bill still vindicates AMAC concerns with runaway federal debt. See, e.g., https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rand-paul-claims-victory-in-fight-over-ppp-money-to-planned-parenthood-in-senate-covid-relief-bill/ar-BB1ehOp0?ocid=uxbndlbing; https://news.yahoo.com/senate-covid-relief-bill-passes-223500712.html; https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/bernie-sanders-minimum-wage-senate.

Elsewhere the polls are illuminating, even predictive.  One early February AMAC poll recorded an overwhelming number of respondents – more than 54,000 or 98 percent – saw no need to keep troops in the Capitol, not a combat zone.  Late February interviews with troops and political leaders came to the same conclusion, even as Democratic leaders push for troops through fall.  See, e.g., https://dailycaller.com/2021/02/26/national-guard-washington-dc-capitol-riot-50-days-departure-date-threat/; https://amac.us/poll/national-guard-washington-march/#comments; https://www.lacortenews.com/n/sen-tom-cotton-calls-for-sending-capitol-troops-home.

Another poll of AMAC members in late 2020 put highest confidence in family, faith, armed forces, and local police – from a list of 12 institutions. While national polls ask different questions, confidence in the US military is now up, tracking AMAC sentiment.  Likewise, three-quarters of Americans confess reduced trust in big government. One divergence is local police – where AMAC members trust local police, national polls less so.  But could AMAC be ahead of the curve? See, e.g., https://www.npr.org/2018/01/17/578422668/heres-just-how-little-confidence-americans-have-in-political-institutions; https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/22/key-findings-about-americans-declining-trust-in-government-and-each-other/; https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/22/key-findings-about-americans-declining-trust-in-government-and-each-other/; https://news.gallup.com/poll/317135/amid-pandemic-confidence-key-institutions-surges.aspx.

In another bit of predictive power, an AMAC poll done five months ago on willingness to take fresh COVID vaccines indicated three times as many respondents were circumspect, skeptical, or might bypass than jump at the opportunity.  See, https://amac.us/poll/nine-companies-are-nearing-the-end-of-clinical-trials-for-a-covid-19-vaccine-which-of-these-is-closest-to-your-view-once-a-vaccine-is-declared-safe-effective-and-ready-for-the-public.  In an unpredicted development, a February 2021 national poll reveals more than 51 percent of Americans would still “refuse or delay” the vaccine, if offered.  The finding does not sync with media hype or Democrat arguments for a mandated vaccine. See, e.g., https://nypost.com/2021/02/01/51-percent-of-americans-would-refuse-delay-covid-vaccine-survey/;   https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/15/nation/will-covid-19-vaccine-be-mandatory-future/;  https://www.history.com/news/smallpox-vaccine-supreme-court.

Again, AMAC sentiment seems to reflect, contain, or predict hidden and emerging national sentiment.  Put differently, AMAC members are either the definition of Heartland sentiment, strong indicator of it, or happily predictive of trends that later become national sentiment.

What does this mean?  Several things.  First, mainstream America may be more reflexively conservative than commonly thought.  Second, AMAC members may be slightly ahead of national sentiment, a leading indicator of sorts, seeing around corners.  Third, timeless principles, enduring policies, patriotic themes, and core convictions for which AMAC members fight may not be altogether lost.  They may just need added advocacy, dusting off, fresh leadership. Two-to-one most Americans love America.  We may need a poll on that.

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Rodney Brumlow
Rodney Brumlow
9 months ago

The problem with finding the poll section has been going on for well over a year now. Simple fix is a button to push that takes you to the polls.

GKP
GKP
1 year ago

I have not received a poll in over 2 months and have not gotten a news article to comment on in over 2 months in my inbox // why

Mousielove
Mousielove
1 year ago

Today is July 16th and your email content will NOT load to your site. I tried yesterday, when I received it, and again today. The poll doesn’t launch, either. One receives a blank screen with “invalid request” on it. I have a VPN, but turned it off to see if it made a difference. It did not. Previous email and polls have loaded. Someone dropped the ball here!

Tux1girl
Tux1girl
1 year ago

I get the polls, but am not able to open them for 4 weeks.

Jeff Winthers
Jeff Winthers
1 year ago

I’m having the same problem that Mousielove is having (and probably others also), and I tried disconnecting from my VPN also… to no avail. I’m disappointed to say the least!

Monika Lippert
Monika Lippert
1 year ago

I haven’t been able to open links sent to me in any of the emails I’ve recently received from Amac (they used to work fine). I just now cancelled my email subscriptions because of this. I came to the website to see if I could locate polls, but am not finding any.

Gayle Moxness
Gayle Moxness
1 year ago

I have been having the same problem as the other posters. I have not been able to open the links on my emails and I have not been able to participate in polls. These used to work for me but now they don’t. It’s been over a month or even two where I have not been able to enjoy this feature. I can’t find the polls to take on the website either. Is anyone at AMAC working on this problem?

Linda Louise Kennedy
Linda Louise Kennedy
1 year ago

I had had the same problem as the other posters. I receive the emails but the links in my emails fail and I have not been able to participate in polls. They used to work but have not worked for at least 3 months. I called customer service who said I could go to a search engine and enter amac.us. That works but I still cannot find the current polls anywhere on the AMAC website. Is anyone at AMAC working on this problem? OR, Where can I find the polls on your website if I login directly??

david shaw
david shaw
1 year ago

Same problem. Cannot take polls. It comes up as “invalid request”. The worst part is, that you don’t have a link on the member website to go to the polls.

donnab
donnab
1 year ago

well, it’s been a VERY long time since the links to the Saturday emails have not worked at all. I know you know about this because I’ve emailed at least twice to let you know months ago. You said you were away in a reply. Perhaps your web person doesn’t know what they are doing?

Jerry
Jerry
1 year ago

Same problem. “Invalid Request” when I click the link in an AMAC email. I WON’T BE RENEWING MY MEMBERSHIP UNLESS THIS IS FRIXED.

Shirley
Shirley
1 year ago

I agree. I can never follow a link from AMAC emails. They go nowhere. Would like to take a poll but not possible. Sometimes I can find the poll, if I just go to AMAC website, but it is NOT Easy!!
And I’m a five-year subscriber!!

Texas Resister 64
Texas Resister 64
1 year ago

I agree with all the problems with polls. Recently, I can’t even find a poll when I go to the main page. If you want us to take polls, make it easier to find them!!!!!

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