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All You Ever Wanted to Know About Recessions

Posted on Wednesday, July 6, 2022
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by AMAC, John Grimaldi
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12 Comments
recessions

WASHINGTON, DC, July 6 — No, the Business Cycle Dating Committee does not provide dates for corporate executives.  It’s a group composed of economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] that tracks business cycles. And they are the folks who determine whether or not our economy is in recession.

Recession is a period of economic deterioration. You know you are in a recession when you find yourself paying two or three times more for things like gasoline, groceries and other household commodities.  What causes a recession? This time around, it is caused by President Biden’s war on fossil fuels coupled with wasteful spending on the part of government. He and his Democratic party, which is in control of Congress, are responsible for the runaway spending schemes that fueled runaway inflation that, in turn, has led us to the brink of a new recession.

According to Brendan Cole, a senior journalist at Newsweek, “The committee, which has the sole authority to declare the start and the end of a recession, takes into account aspects such as consumer spending, industrial production, employment and real personal income levels.” Cole cites economist Peter Schiff  who recently tweeted, “Joe Biden will soon be forced to admit that America’s red hot economy has actually been in a recession all year, which will only get far worse with high inflation and more rate hikes.”

Unofficially, a recession is usually declared when the economy has two consecutive quarters of negative growth. We experienced a 1.3% negative Gross Domestic Product [GDP] in the first quarter this year.  We won’t have an official reading of the second quarter GDP until July 28. However, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank is currently estimating that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of GDP growth, in the second quarter of 2022 is minus-2.1% on July 1, down from minus-1.0% on June 30.”

Even the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute reports that “recessions result in higher unemployment, lower wages and incomes, and lost opportunities more generally. Education, private capital investments, and economic opportunity are all likely to suffer in the current downturn, and the effects will be long-lived. While economies often see rapid growth during recovery periods (as unused capacity is returned to work), the drag due to the long-term damage will still prevent the recovery from reaching its full potential.”

The NBER says that the U.S. has experienced 34 periods of recession in the 19th and 20th centuries and that so far in the 21st century there have been three. The first occurred in the period from March 2001 to November 2001, the second was from December 2007 to June 2009 and in 2020 at the start of the COVID pandemic between February and April of that year.

As far-fetched it may sound, there are a few beneficial things about a period of recession. For example, Motley fool’s Dana George points out that “Nearly all of us will be impacted by a recession in some way.  During times of economic downturns, Americans are reminded of how important it is to live below our means (or at the very least, within our means). It prods us to save for the next rainy day, keep our emergency funds topped up, and to reevaluate how we manage money…People save more during recessions. That does not help economic recovery but given that only one-fifth of Americans are confident they can last more than three paychecks, a lot of people would benefit from saving more.”

So, when will the Business Cycle Dating Committee officially declare that we are in recession? The New York Times says it will likely be “well after the slump has already begun. Recessions come in all shapes and sizes. Some are long, some are short. Some create lasting damage, while some are quickly forgotten.”

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tika
tika
1 year ago

the longer the dems are in the recession gets worse and the recovery time increases disproportionately because consumers are destroyed financially and become hopeless and pessimistic about spending on anything other than necessities. dems are trash because they’ve done this deliberately; didn’t have to happen.

John Tate
John Tate
1 year ago

Folks seem to forget that X% down isn’t recovered by X% up. Let’s say there’s a 20% decline in the stock market; so what was 100 is now 80. It’s gonna take a 25% increase in that 80 to get back to the old 100.

Gabe Hanzeli
Gabe Hanzeli
1 year ago

all I need to know about recession is that democrats always cause them.

Art
Art
1 year ago

I am no national personality but I was around for the Jimmy Carter fiasco and the recovery that took several years. My opinion is we are into a recession! The talking heads (aka Max Headroom) are all having a good time justifying their existence.

One more thing. PLEASE STOP USING THE TERM “DEMOCRATIC.” USE THE TERM DEMOCRAT.

Kim
Kim
1 year ago

“Some create lasting damage, while some are quickly forgotten.” The only people who will forget about this recession are biden and harris, with biden doing so quickly. For most of the rest of us, we feel it every day, so we’re reminded every day how bad things are.

Michael J
Michael J
1 year ago

Two things were foretold during the debates: President Trump predicted what Biden would do irreparable harm to the nation and Joe did exactly what he said he would do. Were the American people listening? I don’t need a committee to tell me how screwed up the country is, just visit your local grocery store or gas station.

David Millikan
David Millikan
1 year ago

This would NOT be happening with PRESIDENT TRUMP and we would STILL be ENERGY INDEPENDENT and have STRONG ECONOMY with STRONG MILITARY and BORDERS SECURED.
There would be NO Recession with PRESIDENT TRUMP.

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