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After November

Posted on Thursday, June 2, 2022
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AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

Trump

It is mostly guesswork to speculate about U.S. politics past November 2022, but it would seem that both major political parties will face a showdown crisis between their own internal factions as they prepare to contest the 2024 presidential election.

The results of the 2022 national midterm elections, already shaping up to be an epic electoral event, will provide the impetus for those internal confrontations. If Republicans gain control of both houses of Congress, the struggle will be about Donald Trump more than ideology — as the battle for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination goes into full swing. As Michael Barone put it so aptly, the party is Trumpist, but not necessarily Trump’s.

The internal struggle for the Democrats will likely be much more complicated. If the party loses control of Congress, as now seems quite possible, much of the blame will be placed on President Joe Biden and his so far feckless administration. If he does not then voluntarily retire (a historically rare event), he would almost certainly be challenged from both his left and right — much as President Harry Truman was in 1948. (Former Vice President Henry Wallace challenged Truman on the left, and South Carolina U.S. Senator Strom Thurmond on the right. Truman defeated Republican Thomas Dewey in spite of this.) Joe Biden, however, has not the energy, charisma or grassroots appeal of a Harry Truman to overcome serious internal opposition. His current approval ratings, already down to the mid-to-upper 30s (as are the poll numbers of his vice president, Kamala Harris) would likely mean new names on the 2024 ticket.

With a successful 2022 midterm providing momentum, and a very large “bench” of successful GOP governors, senators, and recent former office holders and cabinet members, the Republican Party, barring the unforeseen, would head for November 2024 as heavy favorites, but first the GOP has to secure a successful mid-term result — not yet a certainty with five months to go.

The Democratic “bench,” as many have observed, consists mainly of older, more radical figures like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and a few younger figures such as Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom, but none so far who seem likely able to replace Joe Biden only two years from now. Any new Democratic figure who wins a governorship in a GOP wave in 2022 might become a contender.

The GOP presidential wannabes include Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin — and more. But for now, Donald Trump is the presumptive favorite if he decides to run.

Mr. Trump is currently participating in the 2022 midterm elections by endorsing and campaigning for gubernatorial and U.S. House and Senate candidates in several states — most of whom have been Trump supporters in the past. He has taken particular aim at his past critics in the party. So far, most of his endorsees have won, but some of his targets have won despite his opposition to them. The net effect of this strategy will be clearer in November.

Economic conditions and domestic crises will, as they almost always are, be critical in the 2024 election cycle, and will enable voters to make their choices from the likely large number of candidates. Candidates with experience and bold ideas on the critical issues might have some advantage if there are very many candidates in the field, as there were in both parties in 2016.

Public attitudes and any new voter priorities resulting from the recent pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the U.S. border crisis, and a potential summer economic recession should not be ignored nor glossed over.

The 2024 presidential race is going to begin early, and it is likely to be an epic, noisy, and transformative contest.

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mark sligh sr
mark sligh sr
2 years ago

We have to get out and work hard for what we need and we need EVERYONE TO VOTE PLEASE,,,even if you think one vote wont make a change just think about how many others are thinking the same thing ,,, IT MATTERS ,,, im afraid 2024 is going to be a all out war on who will gain control ,, it will get down and dirty for sure ,, PEOPLE OF GA. WE NEED YOU BAD THIS YEAR ,,,

John McCormack
John McCormack
2 years ago

The United States of America is in the throes of a fear campaign. This fear is being bantered by every Democrat and all of the Biden Administration. From the Press Secretary right to the top of the White House. They r preach all the fear they can and most of the “Sheepepole” listen to it and worry to death. This Country has to tune out such admissions. It is only dividing the nation further.

Go back in time and listen to the words of the famous President, FDR. “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself”. Those words hold very true today as back then. Wake up America. Stand strong and stay United.

THX 1138
THX 1138
2 years ago

You can see from this list just who are planning on being in it just to pull votes from the stronger candidates.
Mike Pence has about a snowball’s chance in Hell!

Ron Howard
Ron Howard
2 years ago

Did Ron DeSantis announce interest? Last I heard he said he wanted to remain governor of Florida. He is probably the best choice of those listed in the article because he has been a near perfect governor. I am a strong Trump supporter but have reservations about his age and health, which he himself has expressed, and other concerns. If Hilary runs again it would make a really interesting, perhaps entertaining race if Trump did run. But that is over 2 years away. My current concern is that we take back the House and Senate this November. I will worry about the Presidential Election later!

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

Nation in Civil/Rev War 2 OR peace??

Barb304
Barb304
2 years ago

TRUMP 2024 MAGA

Richard Carr
Richard Carr
2 years ago

The only way Democrat’s can really threaten President trump is to help field a Republican candidate who defecting Democrats would find more palatable than Trump. Don’t discount the ability of the Democrats to stay loyal in the face of adversity. They have proven their ability to Stab anyone in the back to get their own way. My Opinion.

James Federico
James Federico
2 years ago

Just once I would like to see candidates run on merit instead of mudslinging then we would really be able to choose the best one no matter which party

JayA
JayA
2 years ago

Both parties are rotten as last month’s meat balls and twice as corrupt. A third party is needed to put an end to bribes, pay off and special interest money polluting our elections, Throw in term limits also!

J. Farley
J. Farley
2 years ago

I am a very strong President Trump supporter, but I am open to most anyone that is a strong Constitutionalist and believes in the rule of law and its being applied equally regardless of political party, age, or sex, or economic status and believes in a Christian God and is a Republican. Anyone that has shown they feel that the Constitution can be amended without a vote of the people need not apply. We are a sovereign nation, and any new President must do everything to see that America comes first and we build America with American money before we help other nations.
God Save America

Davidme
Davidme
2 years ago

O’Biden is our First Ever Brain Dead, Fraudulent and Criminal President!!!!! However, He was elected by Our Very First Skillfully Corrupted, Rigged Dominion Voting Machines and Fraudulent Paper Ballots to be the Deep Dark States Shill and Fall Guy President!!!!! The 2020 Presidential Election MUST be Overturned if Our America is to Survive!!!!! Further more, There Must be a Unified Initiative to Insure all Future Elections are Honest!!!! Our Right to Vote Must be Very Well Protected and Cherished!!!!
Wake Up America, We Are In Very, Very Serious, Grave and Dire Danger “From Within” by the Washington, DCeivers!!!!!

Jeff Noncent
Jeff Noncent
2 years ago

The Mid term election is to me a toss up because the Democratic party got away from the 2020 election Fraud if they can get away with this one they will do it again and it’s not looking for them either

Westhus
Westhus
2 years ago

Pence, Nikki Haley & Tim Scott are the weakest on that list. Other than DeSantis and Pompeio, not sure any of the others are the fighters we need. In any case, first let’s win this November and take back the House & Senate, but in parallel we need to continue to work toward 2024. Neither election cycle should be thought of as a finish line, but only milestones in the grand journey to rid the Republic of the internal Commie threat. We cannot afford any more terms of Communist control of the legislative and executive branches of government.

Philip Hammersley
Philip Hammersley
2 years ago

RINO Raffy in GA won his nomination because DIMMs crossed over to vote for him. That ought to tell us something! All states should have CLOSED primaries; we don’t need DIMMs pushing RINOs on us.

Brent
Brent
2 years ago

If the dems didn’t steal elections, they would never win.

Sean Richman
Sean Richman
2 years ago

I hope that President Trump wins,but I will vote ALL Republican.If the democRATS win,our country is done,we are very close to that now.

C M
C M
2 years ago

Regarding Truman’s win in 1948 despite “internal opposition.” If there is any “internal opposition” I predict it would be similar to Carter’s outcome in 1980. Carter would probably have lost without Kenndy’s opposition. However, Kennedy’s presence in the primaries reminded people of Carter’s liabilities and weaknesses.

mark sligh sr
mark sligh sr
2 years ago

Biden got on tv tonight mumbling as usual , calling for a ban on ar style rifle’s and high capacity mags, and saying we need to do something we cant let the people down again ,, WHAT IN THE HELL ARE THE DEMOCRATS DOING TO US EVERY DAMN DAY SINCE– BIDUM– TOOK OFFICE ,,, just look at your grocery bill, gas for your veh. , your stocks if you have any , but taking our guns will solve the problem and if that dosent happen then the republicans are at fault again as usual with the dems. ,,,,GET OUT AND VOTE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE ,,

George R Rivera Jr
George R Rivera Jr
2 years ago

The true struggle will not be between hard Left Socialists and Communists in our government, but between RINO entrenched swap creatures and MAGA. When the New Right attains majority seats in both the House and Senate, three Swampers will be sent packing – Pelosi, McCarthy, and McConnell. Immediately following will be an impeachment never seen before, where wholesale elimination will occur. One does not need to be a Prophet to see the writing on the wall, which is why the Swamp will resort to ANYTHING to survive.

Nick Murphy
Nick Murphy
2 years ago

There will be no impeachment. The Democrats will do their usual cheat and lie to win. The feckless media will cover for them and the courts will ignore it. You have not been around the block enough times if you don’t realize that’s what’s going to happen, and I guarantee you it will

Marc Ziegler
Marc Ziegler
2 years ago

God help us if the Republican Party does not win both houses in November and Trump wins in 2024! America cannot stand another two or four years of Democratic rule. The U.S. is already the laughingstock of the world, and we really want more of the same. 22 and 24 cannot come fast enough.

Frank
Frank
2 years ago

I appreciate everything President Trump has done and is doing but I cannot vote for someone running for President at the age of 80. It’s time for Trump to sit down and consider mostly the downside of doing so and reconsider while being there mostly as an advisor to throw in his opinions on running the economy. I’m still hoping DeSantis or Scott put their names in the primary with a possible 2024 ticket of DeSantis-Scott or Scott-DeSantis. Please NO Liberal supporting Rhinos allowed to run for the republican nomination because Traitors are no longer allowed. To those that disagree you only have to look at what todays 70 and over House and Senate demented AHoles are doing to our country as well as the current sitting Puppet. Regardless of who it is I have noticed 70 as the beginning of a change in mental stability.

Frank
Frank
2 years ago

As for the midterm elections the rig has already started in the form of, I believe was the NY Times article that stated the midterms will not be the disaster for the democrats everyone thinks. The ONLY way they can make that statement is in the form of a 2020 Rigged Election repeat because the democrats are devastating America. Another clue is the article I read that stated Biden is flooding the lower courts with liberal judges to make it harder for the Republicans to fight their election fraud in court. With the rhino republicans like Romney and Cheney, to mention a few of many supporting the liberals’ agendas I have no confidence these midterms will be on the up and up and we are going to get the shaft. God help us please.

johnh
johnh
2 years ago

Donald Trump & Ted Cruz are two of potential Republican candidates for POTUS. They both spoke at the NRA convention this week . & it will prove interesting how this plays out with the rest of voters at election time. My opinion, timing was not right time to speak or attend convention. The two parties must negotiate & pass some bill that stops the assault rifle attacks in America. Why are the two parties so stubborn & unwilling to do what is best for all American citizens.

johnh
johnh
2 years ago

Watching Jeopardy last night & one question who was US hero (pilot) shot down in 1966 Viet Nam war. The answer was John McCain. I still resent Trump saying that McCain was no hero as heroes do not get captured. My worst memory of this is that Donald Trump would neve apologize or back off this statement during his entire term. Glad to see that Jeopardy recognizes John McCain as an American Hero.

Rich
Rich
2 years ago

If the republicans win big in November, look for the socialist democrats to double down on the lies and deceit, even election fraud. Unfortunately they won’t go away for good. Their strategists will come up with a new set of ways to destroy anything or anyone that is good for America. They have to convince the weak minded that good is bad and bad is good.

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