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A New 2024 Political Calendar

Posted on Thursday, December 15, 2022
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AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

After decades of the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary being the first formal events of a presidential nominating cycle for both major political parties, the Democrats have moved South Carolina up to be their first primary, and President Biden has asked that state caucuses be eliminated for the selection of delegates to their national convention.

It is the latter, the abandonment of caucuses, that I have advocated for many decades. As I learned from living in Minnesota, where both parties hold caucuses, they are very undemocratic and became instruments of activist minorities in promoting candidates and policies which often do not have the support of most of the voters in their own parties. Intended to increase grass roots involvement, caucuses almost immediately were routinely overrun by small numbers of activists who otherwise could not prevail in the regular election process.

In the case of Democrats, they refined the caucus further, enabling small groups to combine to vote for candidates and policies even less likely to have majority support. The informal structure of caucuses often has also led to a lack of transparency.

The use of caucuses, for this reason, has been declining across the nation, but now only primary elections will work for Democrats.

Taking away their primacy has inevitably angered Iowa and New Hampshire, each of which enjoyed months of national attention and much campaign spending every four years. But Iowa is now a completely red state, and New Hampshire is so small that it makes little difference in presidential election strategy. In the case of Iowa, their botched 2020 Democratic caucus certainly didn’t help their cause. In 2020, South Carolina was the pivotal state in reviving Mr. Biden’s then sinking candidacy, and by now making that state the first primary in 2024, he is clearly trying to reward his supporters there.

The Democrats have further decided that the Nevada primary will follow South Carolina by one week, and that Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia will also be early primary states. With many more delegates at stake in the other early primaries, most Democratic candidates will likely skip New Hampshire.

Republicans have already decided to keep Iowa as their first 2024 event. Iowa Democratic officials have vowed to schedule their caucus before the South Carolina primary, but now no Democratic presidential candidate will participate in it.

Mr. Biden increasingly is signaling his intention to run for re-election in 2024, something that appeared to be very unlikely only a few months ago. His policies, age, and unsteady public appearances had driven his poll numbers to chronic unfavorable levels. Many Democrats then, and even now, would like to replace him at the top of their ticket with someone else, but the recent 2022 midterm election results have given the president a second political wind.

In the usually-accurate Rasmussen Poll, Biden recently has even risen to favorable territory by one point — although most of the establishment polls still show him down by high single or low double digits.

If Mr. Biden chooses to run, he cannot assume he will be not be challenged by someone in his own party, especially if it appears likely that Republicans will nominate someone other than Mr. Trump, but he will have a considerable advantage from the scheduling of South Carolina as the first primary.

The impact on the Republican presidential nominating process remains unclear, especially since the GOP has not altered its traditional primary calendar. Former President Trump, the only announced GOP candidate, might benefit from keeping Iowa and New Hampshire early, but his campaign so far has been overshadowed by the 2022 mid-term results and by the apparent sudden boost in grass roots interest in Governor Ron DeSantis following the huge GOP success in the Florida mid-term elections. DeSantis now even leads in some state polls.

The rapid decline in the number of caucuses and the changing primary calendar is undeniably going to have considerable impact on the 2024 election cycle. Although the motivations for making the changes so far were primarily self-serving, the result has been a more democratic (small “d”) and transparent process.

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Linda Baker
Linda Baker
1 year ago

TRUMP 2024!

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
1 year ago

Add these states for Primaries:
Hawaii
NM
VA
ID

Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
1 year ago

Go Trump.

Harry
Harry
1 year ago

I don’t think Joe will make it to the next election.

legally present
legally present
1 year ago

He’s rewarding James Clyburn, the one that put the idiot Biden in the lead. From there it was Biden all the way. He will be 82, got that 82 in 2024, and would be 86 at the end of his term. Anyone on here think he has all his marbles in the first place. Sure Jilly wants him to run, she loves the attention of being first woman, I won’t say Lady as she is complicit in running someone that’s basically not all there.
PLUS in 2024, watch for the other idiot Newsome to put his hat in the ring, with fellow idiot Gretchen Whitless as his running mate.

PaulE
PaulE
1 year ago

Having read a number of in-depth articles surrounding the rationale behind why the Democrats are proposing the change in order of state primaries, it seems clear the intent is to quickly cull the number of expected Democrat nominees down from a potential dozen or more to a single individual the entire Party can rally behind as fast as possible. Thus maximizing the amount of financial resources the Democrat Party will have on hand to try and overwhelm any eventual Republican Party nominee.

Eliminating the Iowa caucus process also helps the Democrats by eliminating any discussion beforehand (choice is bad in Democrat circles) and allows for political blocks to steer the eventual vote outcome far easier.

The new order of states in the primary process is clearly designed to maximize the early participation of the black vote that the Democrats have a solid lock on. Thus the media will be able to showcase a string of early, decisive wins, driven by a reliable Democrat voting block, for whomever the Party signals ahead of time is the desired ultimate winner. It’s basically creating a media narrative that becomes self-reinforcing by concentrating on states with heavy black voter participation up front.

It seems the Democrat Party learned from their 2020 primary process, that the black vote could be heavily influenced simply by one man, in that case Congressman Clyburn, simply telling black voters Joe Biden was who they should support. Biden went from a dismal nominee prospect well behind 3 or 4 other candidates and about to eliminated altogether to the uncontested Democrat Party choice in short order. So I guess the Democrat Party figured why bother with the traditional state schedule for primaries and just rearrange the Democrat Party primary schedule to fit an easier to manipulate state order. Never forget the old saying “The ends justify the means”.

As usual, the GOP leadership at the RNC won’t be able to figure any of this out until it is way too late. Then again, maybe they do realize the implications, but just don’t care. We can do a coin toss on that one. I can hardly wait for the incessant phone calls from all the various GOP candidates and PACS to begin in earnest. That last sentence was pure sarcasm by the way. Are we having fun yet?

NewDay
NewDay
1 year ago

We are seeing too many changes in our political system. If you voted for any Democrat candidate in the last election then you are responsible for these ongoing changes. Because there was no red wave the democrats interpret that as “full speed ahead”.

Philip Hammersley
Philip Hammersley
1 year ago

Biden HAS to reward the pitiful James Clyburn for giving him the DIMM nomination! Yes, joe, cater to a black man who does NOTHING to help the average black man. Just another corrupt bootlicker.

David
David
1 year ago

It doesn’t matter who the dims run they have perfected the cheat in the big city to the point they only need a few of the vote farms to come thru so they can swing the targeted states for their electoral votes.

johnh
johnh
1 year ago

I cannot believe Biden really wants to run in 2024, but hopefully Democrats come up with another candidate that Dems will support for 2024 election.

johnh
johnh
1 year ago

Republicans must come up with a new face for 2024 election, as latest polls show about 67% of voters do not approve of either Trump or Biden. Trump has done over four things in the last month that make me think that he really does not want to be POTUS again. Four things are: Kanye West, Constitution, pardons for Jan 6th people arrested, fundraiser for legal fees for Jan 6th arrested, no remorse or responsibility for Jan 6th & claim that he only has to think about documents to say they are unclassified. It is time for Trump to step down, but will he?

Pam Chitwood
Pam Chitwood
1 year ago

I was so surprised by the loss of the Republicans during this last election. I think Biden is doing such a bad job. I see him lying and don’t see anything he says making any sense. I do not want to see Trump run again. As much good he did for this country he has been hurt in so many ways and it will not stop. He seems to play into the hands of the crooks in power but I do not know if there is anyone strong enough to clean up the swamp. It is bad too. Is there enough democrats left to want the government to be cleaned up?

marty
marty
1 year ago

I am bothered by the usage of Democrat and Democratic. Democratic (adjective) good ! Democrat
(party)) not so good, especially socialist democrat.

K Adrian
K Adrian
1 year ago

Biden is a lying a**hole

Bill T
Bill T
1 year ago

After this midterm election and the unbelievable results that the Republican Party achieved, either this country is heading into a socialist disaster or the democrats with the highly questionable Covid voting system have figured out a way to cheat and rig our once honest and fair election system ( I’ll go with the ladder explanation) they rigged the election with illegal voting and mail in ballots

Davd
Davd
1 year ago

DeSantis Should Not Run in’24! We Need The Real Deal Donald Trump in ‘24 to Take Back America! We Already Lost the Republic but Can Take It Back! Accept No Substitutes! Trump 2024!

Julie Davis-Raley
Julie Davis-Raley
1 year ago

I think Florida needs Desantis family a few more years as his kids are still young and his wife is still recovering from cancer.. Bottom line for me is I have always liked Ted Cruz, and Desantis has a good chance to be ready for Presidency if they ran as a team in 2028…but both need to be mentoring their successors. Don’t leave the state like Trump was forced to do. No Bidens idiot socialists for Texas or Florida.

Bruce
Bruce
1 year ago

Although Trump’s economic savvy is undeniable, his lack of political “street smarts” was taken advantage of by the left in his response to the communist Covid plandemic in my humble opinion. Although he correctly left the State’s rights in place, he could have educated himself better in regard to the now known to be harmful vaccine. As the factual numbers of injuries and DNA affects of the stew of ingredients in this thing touted as necessary for saving the world, it becomes apparent it is more about population control, a long known goal of the globalist. If Mr Trump had acknowledged the mistake in unleashing this fast tracked new RNA technology on us as a mistake, it would be of some comfort, but I have not yet heard it.

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