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A Democratic Waterloo in the Suburbs: How the Results of Texas’ 6th Congressional District May Portend Doom for Suburban Dems in 2022

Posted on Tuesday, May 4, 2021
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AMAC Exclusive By Daniel Roman

TexasOn Saturday, voters went to the polls in Texas’ 6th Congressional district to elect a replacement for Republican Congressman Ron Wright, who died in February. In a contest in which all candidates appeared on the ballot regardless of party, with the top two proceedings to a runoff on May 24th, two Republicans advanced. They were Susan Wright, the widow of the late congressman, who had received the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, and Jake Elizey, a conservative state representative. The victory of either on May 24th will be a win for conservatives and for Trump, while Saturday’s results represent a defeat for both the Democratic party, which will not even have a candidate in the runoff, and anti-Trump Republicans, whose much-heralded candidate Michael Wood received a mere 3% despite glowing profiles in the national press.

The results portend far more than the mere question of who will fill a single House seat. They provide a challenge to Democratic visions of turning Texas Blue and a sign that Joe Biden’s election has served to demoralize rather than motivate left-leaning voters. Democrats have been quick to scoff at the idea that they needed to win this seat in order to hold the US House, noting that it would be vulnerable in redistricting anyway, for instance.

That is perhaps true, but it misses the point that Democrats need to contest seats like the 6th Congressional district if they want to have any hope of competing statewide in Texas. And much as with what happened in the heavily Hispanic border counties of South Texas back in November, the evidence indicates that Democrats are moving backward rather than forward. However, this time, they are not moving backward in the sort of high-minority, non-urban area that is shifting rightward around the world, but in a high-income, high-education suburb, which in theory should be shifting their way.

The Democrats’ post-2018 House majority is built on districts like the Texas 6th, entirely so after the party lost many of its remaining rural seats in 2020. The Texas 6th District, located in the Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs, is 88.7% urban and only 52% non-Hispanic white. Its median income, at $71,161, is well above the national average, which during the Trump Administration was an indicator of Democratic support, something Joe Biden should perhaps keep in mind when promoting the largest tax increases in decades.

Once safely Republican (the district voted 66%-34% for George Bush in 2004, 57%-42% for John McCain in 2008, and 58%-41% for Mitt Romney in 2012), it begins to shift dramatically in recent years, voting for Donald Trump by 54%-42% in 2016 and by a mere 3%, 51%-48% in 2020. Thus, in this special election, Democrats had no candidate make the runoff in a district where Joe Biden received 48% of the vote in 2020. It was not only Biden who made gains. Democratic candidates for congress in the district won 39% in 2016, 46% in 2018, and 44% in 2020. This Saturday, every Democratic candidate combined earned a mere 37%.

Meanwhile, the combined Republican vote was 62%. Compared to the Presidential race, that is an 11% increase for Republicans since November and an 11% drop for Democrats. Yet, even compared to past congressional results, the Democratic total has been the worst since 2014 when an underfunded Democrat received 36.4% in the district. If Democrats are performing at 2014 levels in 2021, when Joe Biden should still be on his honeymoon, it portends horribly for their prospects in 2022. Nationally, Democrats lost 8 Senate seats that year.

More worrying still for Democrats, this is the sort of seat where the media insists the Republican party has been most damaged by both the Trump presidency and its aftermath, among other things, as a result of Republicans’ opposition to COVID restrictions, a lack of support for “Green” policies, and their social conservatism. So goes the narrative, at least. Moreover, the district is wealthy, multiracial, and suburban, exactly what the media would term “Biden” Country. Except, the evidence is that at least 25% of November 2020 Biden voters are no longer buying in. Perhaps because the Biden Administration has embraced left-wing policies that are deeply alienating to exactly this sort of voter.

Equally embarrassing for the media, though much less significant politically, is the total failure of the campaign by retired Marine colonel Michael Wood, a self-described anti-Trump Republican who was running to “save” the Republican party from itself. Wood received extensive attention in the national media, including interviews with Politico and CBS News and a profile in Texas Monthly. Wood proclaimed that the race was “the first battle for the soul of the Republican party.” If there was ever a seat where an anti-Trump Republican should have been viable, it would have been this one. After all, Mitt Romney of all people won 58%, while President Trump won a mere 51% in 2020.

Furthermore, absent party primaries, Wood had the potential to appeal to Biden voters disaffected with what Biden had done since taking office. In the end, Wood appealed to neither. He won a mere 3.3% of the vote, despite receiving the second most media coverage of any candidate. Of the 11% of voters who cast ballots for Biden in November and then supported a Republican on Saturday, more than 70% preferred a Donald Trump-endorsed option.

Wood’s defeat should rightfully put an end to the belief that a large constituency exists for anti-Republican Republican candidates outside the Beltway.

Democrats, however, have much more to lose than anti-Trump Republicans, who never won elections in the first place. Wood’s failure shows that not only have high-income Biden voters deserted the Democrats but that they are willing to desert them for Pro-Trump Republicans. As the Democratic strategy for 2022 appears not to appeal to voters on their own merits but rather to count on voters finding Republicans worse, these results should be very concerning for them. If it does not work in a seat where a 17% Romney win turned into a 3% Trump win in 2020, where will it work? In seats where 3% Obama wins turned into 15%, Trump wins in the Midwest? On the Mexican Border, where Trump held Democrats to their lowest margins in generations? In South Florida, where Trump racked up margins that helped him win the state by 3.4%?

Democrats worried about the realignment of working-class voters in 2016 consoled themselves with the belief that minority voters would keep trending their way. When those voters revolted in 2020, Democrats felt content that at least the suburbs turned on Trump. Now the suburbs have begun to revolt against the Democratic party as well, and it is hard to see where they have left to go to make up the difference.

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jocko
jocko
3 years ago

libs = CANCER AND ARE THE ENEMY OF OUR NATION

David B.
David B.
3 years ago

Much Not to like about How this article was written. Almost seems sympathetic to the Dems. I say to hell with these evil Dems and their hatred for America! They are traitors and must receive “No Quarter” from patriotic Americans.

The Rebel
The Rebel
3 years ago

While there is a dumb@$$ and a hooker in the White House, the undocumented racist muslim is behind the scenes serving his 3rd term with the help George $ore@$$ dollars !!!!

J. Farley
J. Farley
3 years ago

Maybe Americans are wising up to the low life’s on the left and their move to destroy the best country on plant earth, that’s the good news, the bad news is we still have a year and a half the the stupidest people on the left that ever held public office, and your first and second amendment along with other liberties are under extreme attack and we only have a one vote margin on the Supreme Court to protect our freedom.
God Please Help Us !!!!!

RJ from Az
RJ from Az
3 years ago

Article sounds good, but most people have little interest in off year elections. I would not read a lot into it.

Nick Patriot
Nick Patriot
3 years ago

Communists Obama and Biden aren’t worried. They know they can rig the election even if 3/4 of the country vote to get rid of them!

James Kelly
James Kelly
3 years ago

TRUMP, TRUMP, TRUMP!!!

Momcat
Momcat
3 years ago

in our DFW suburb, we went further left, no conservatives won. no candidate here can identify as conservative or leftist. dems have poured billions into the state & the rino leadership is helping. Abbott could have refused migrants, like other states, but he didn’t, he just denounced it, let them come & stay.

Ron Howard
Ron Howard
3 years ago

Little by little things are beginning to look up, like this runoff being solely Republican candidates, like the gain for Republican seats due to the 2020 Census, states fighting the unconstitutional laws being passed by the Democrat House and Senate with legislation to not enforce those laws, etc. And to support these gains we need to keep our voices loud and heard. We need to flood Congress with emails, letters and phone calls to make them hear us. Do unto them as they did unto Donald Trump, give them no rest. Be relentless and persevering, vote, and get out the vote! Concentrate on wining back the House in 2022, and the presidency and Senate in 2024. .

Wayne Peterkin
Wayne Peterkin
3 years ago

Certainly that election was good news but I am far more reserved about it forecasting any nationwide effect. As a conservative, I hope no Democrat ever wins another election but I know my hope is unrealistic.

Ed J
Ed J
3 years ago

Let’s review how the Demsheviks prevailed in the 2020 elections.
 
First, there was Hiden Biden who was secluded in his basement for much of the election cycle so the nation would not become aware of his cognitive impairment and other shortcomings. This left much of the electorate in a vacuum regarding what he was really all about.
 
Second, there was the lamestream media who hyped propaganda, generated Fake News, disseminated lies, and distorted just about everything President Trump said and did. This left the electorate in a vacuum regarding the truth.
 
Third, add to this the irregularities in the election process itself as liberal governors, liberal partisan state courts and liberal unelected bureaucrats “changed” the rules for voting during the election, not to mention the irregularities during the voting process itself and the partisan counting of votes after the polls closed.
 
The net effect of this coordinated blitz was that the Demsheviks effectively ambushed the nation, highjacked the election and were able to sway gullible and often uninformed voters to vote for Democratic candidates. These well-intentioned but misguided voters were essentially unaware that what they were voting for was fundamentally against their own best interests and the best interests of our nation as a whole.
 
Many of these Biden voters are now going “OOPS!” and realizing their mistake in voting for a Democratic ticket. As Biden continues to lay out his extreme and costly radical socialist agenda, people are coming to realize that their lifestyle, standard of living, financial well-being, Constitutional freedoms, and chance to achieve the American Dream will be seriously and severely impaired if the Demsheviks impose their radical agenda upon all Americans and our nation.
 
This article shows there is a ray of light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s hope that Republicans recapture both the House and Senate in 2022 and hopefully return President Trump to the White House in 2024. It’s time to make the “Joe and the Ho Brain Fart Show” disappear into the footnotes of history.

Garye
Garye
3 years ago

Finally a slice of good news!!
This is exactly what needs to occur Nationwide to save America!!

JohnH
JohnH
3 years ago

Explain comment “Democrats who never won elections in the first place” in the next to last paragraph. Are you saying no democrat has won elections in Texas? Back this up with facts , or this statement is just another way to create Blue/Red state divisions. Explain this or leave as an one-sided article.

JohnH
JohnH
3 years ago

Texas is getting hit with two big issues of Biden Admin: 1)Southern Border control 2) New Green Deal that will impact the oil/Natural Gas industries. And these are industries that produce a product for this nation that is not paid for by our govt. dollars.

Art A
Art A
3 years ago

TOO MUCH OPTIMISM.

Judy
Judy
3 years ago

This article would have been much better if the writer had just left his thoughts on the stats of how the C.S.M. Party is doing in that 6th district compared to ‘Trump’ Republicans. Offering them any kind of pointers on how they could or should do better to hold House seats is of no interest to me whatsoever. I think most Conservatives feel the same. At this crucial point in time, those who are standing on the side of Progressivism and supporting this illegal administration are absolutely the enemy of the United States. They are all traitors! Our judicial system has become compromised due to systemic societal interference from Leftist biased activism. Three of such are seated on our Supreme Court. If something isn’t done about Justice John Robert’s and Justice Sotomayor little will change.
With one flicker of light in the dark, we can only hope it’s at least a start for that light to shine brighter across this country as others take notice.

Charlotte A Mahin
Charlotte A Mahin
3 years ago

While I certainly hope the GOP wins big in 2022, it will NOT happen unless our representatives in DC push hard to make sure our election is FAIR! The enemy will be working harder than ever to make sure we lose again and they have many billionaires from inside and outside the U.S. working to make sure they are never defeated again. They should have been more aware of how the Democrats were working in the individual states to change their voting rules in 2020. With a totally corrupt DOJ, FBI and big tech censorship, we can leave no stone unturned in our quest!

Mamabear
Mamabear
3 years ago

I am praying that our beautiful country’s citizens are finally waking up. The communist demo in office
now has done a good job at letting them know what demos are really all about. Biden has shown his true self, they played with the election and look what they got? A true awakening of American’s.

Xtech
Xtech
3 years ago

NOTHING will change if there isn’t a solution to the voting FRAUD that Commicrats used to STEAL the 2020 Trump victory. This is the greatest threat to our Republic, followed closely by the CORRUPT, leftist billionaire owned, State media!

Rosalee Cavanaugh
Rosalee Cavanaugh
3 years ago

Who are we kidding? The elections are compromised. There will be no Republican winners unless we have honest elections.

Becky
Becky
3 years ago

The problem with the old democrat party is that it died in 1960..And democrats refuse to understand why..
America is NOT Communist.
America will never be Communist..
Even in the 60s when these marxist thugs were bombing buildings and rioting everywhere, spitting on our soldiers, and other disgusting pig-human behaviors, Americans made it clear we were NOT on their side.
Yet they persist. DemonRats are braindead commies. And we DETEST them.

HocasPocas
HocasPocas
3 years ago

Looks like the citizens are seeking to save their country after all

Barb
Barb
3 years ago

I’m hoping the midterm elections will bring about positive changes in Congress. It seems to me that the current members, for the most part, couldn’t care less about America or its citizens and that is simply unacceptable. We need to send them a reminder that they work for us!

Ralph S Mills
Ralph S Mills
3 years ago

DemoRATs have nothing to worry about! The SWAMP Dwellers have all the protection they need to win the next election(s)… its called GERRYMANDERING!

John fallon
John fallon
3 years ago

Remove ALL CARREER Politicians, they have all been too long in the SWAMP, THEY WANT TO RETURN TO THE WAY THINGS WERE BEFORE PRESIDENT TRUMP SHOWED THE WORLD THE TRUTH!!! THEY ONLY CARE ABOUT POWER AND BAGS OF DIRTY MONEY, START ELECTING PEOPLE THAT HAVE BEEN SCREWED BY THE CORRUPT SYSTEM AND LET THEM TEAR THE SYSTEM APART!!!
We can do it from the inside out, just like the socialists, only we can turn things around and MAKES THINGS RIGHT!!! MAGA. AGAIN!!!

Jan
Jan
3 years ago

Anti-Republican Republicans? Typo?

Enuf Said
Enuf Said
3 years ago

I was astounded when the article mentioned “embarrassing” for the media! Are you insane–the media CAN’T be embarrassed because they possess no integrity, decency, moral values, or one ounce of love for God or country. Why this type thing keeps getting addressed and criticizing the media is beyond me. It is the same old song, just sung by different media (so-Called) with a different singer.

david nance
david nance
3 years ago

The dems are going to get killed in the midterms .They have screwed things up so badly that people that are not partisan are going to vote them out.

jocko
jocko
3 years ago

VERY DIFICULT TO BELEIVE WITH THE CANCEROUS, ANTI-AMERICAN, LYING, LAW BREAKING libs CHEATING ON ALL OF THE ELECTIONS…….

Hal
Hal
3 years ago

It will be almost as rare as a snowstorm at the equator to get an honest election in the border counties of Texas in the area of Laredo … it has been under DemonRat control for many decades as far back as the Great Depression Era. For many years in the first half of the 1900’s, only the Democrats had elections to select who would run in the General elections (the GOP didn’t even have Party elections then) … and the DemonRats cheated and rigged voter counts in that era, and the losers never put up a meaningful squawk … because that was the way it was done as a standard normal procedure for DemonRats. At times they were better at it getting result than even the Chicago DemonRate machines and the NJ machines, and the NY machines. It should be the focus or all citizens who want to keep our Constitutional Democray to put a stop to the rigged election like the last POTUS election.

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