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2024 U.S. House Prospects

Posted on Monday, March 20, 2023
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by Barry Casselman
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AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

House

The 2024 national election cycle is now underway, but of the major contests—the presidency, the House, and the Senate—only the political prospects for the Senate can be seen with any clarity.

The GOP goes into the Senate campaign with a distinct advantage. Only 11 of their seats will be on the ballot, and none of them appear vulnerable at this point.

23 Democrat seats, however, are up for re-election, and 8-10 of those now appear vulnerable to a GOP pick-up. With the liberal party only having control by a 51-49 margin, Republicans have a good chance of regaining control.

Meanwhile, the all-important presidential race remains up in the air, with only some of the anticipated Republican field so far declared, and a considerable question yet to be answered as to whether President Biden will be running, and if so, whether he will be opposed for the Democrat nomination.

Finally, control of the U.S. House is also at stake, with all of its seats on the ballot. Republicans today control the U.S. House 222-213, a four-vote margin. The big question at this early point in the cycle is whether either party has an initial advantage for 2024.

Reapportionment and redistricting was largely complete by the 2022 midterms, but two relatively large delegations will see redistricting before Election Day, 2024: Ohio with 15 seats (currently 10 Republicans and 5 Democrats) and North Carolina with 14 seats (currently 7 seats for each party).

The remaining 406 districts are settled in their boundaries, and about 340 of those appear non-competitive. This leaves control of the House of Representatives to be decided in approximately 64-66 races, and by the final determination of the new boundaries of the Ohio and North Carolina congressional districts.

Predictions on outcomes for the vulnerable House seats are particularly difficult because the names of the challengers to incumbents, and the names of both nominees in the open seats are mostly unknown. Not only is polling unavailable for most of these races, but the possible impact of the 2024 presidential contest is unknown.

Furthermore, and most important, the domestic and global environment is unknown 20 months before voters go to the polls.

Although President Biden is currently expected to run for a second term, he faces a number of atypical obstacles for an incumbent running for re-election.

First of all, he has been regarded unfavorably in voter polls for most of his first term, and remains so.

Second, he will be 82 years old in 2024, and has continually appeared frail in his public appearances.

Third, his vice president, Kamala Harris, is even more unpopular than he is, including among Democrats, and considering she would be on the ticket with an aging president, this would seem to be a significant liability in 2024.

Fourth, a large number of domestic and international issues loom as unresolved going into next year, including a worsening and chronic southern border crisis, a newly appearing banking crisis, continuing inflation, transportation and education problems, the cost of the war in Ukraine, and the economic and military threat from China.

U.S. House races are historically less influenced by national and international issues, and most often reflect local and regional concerns more. Yet the better-than-expected outcomes for Democrats in 2022 were, in the eyes of many observers, largely determined by the abortion issue, and by Republican inability often to clarify the issues of their campaigns.

The GOP also nominated weak candidates in several competitive districts. Democrats raised far more campaign funds than Republicans last cycle, and conducted more aggressive and hard-ball campaigns.

Unless the conservatives have learned nothing from their 2022 campaign experiences, including the price of nominating weak candidates in key races, the 2024 landscape offers them an opportunity to increase their margin in the U.S. House (as well as regain control the U.S. Senate and reoccupy the White House).

In addition, many Republicans, once critical of early voting, expanded mail-in voting, and so-called ballot harvesting, now appear to embrace these innovations, which have clearly worked to the advantage of Democrat candidates in recent elections.

Republicans will also need to field a credible and appealing presidential ticket which presents a clear contrast to the ticket the Democrats finally settle on.

Yes, the prospects for conservatives in 2024 appear bright a year before the next cycle’s campaign, but as everyone learned from the last one, political optimism without the pragmatic and aggressive hard political work that actually makes the difference between winners and losers can lead to disappointment and failure.

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PaulE
PaulE
1 year ago

Please, it is far too early to be making assumptions about election prospects in 2024. Especially when you have the likes of McConnell pulling funding from GOP Senate candidates he doesn’t like or wants to stop from getting elected, because they won’t vote the way he wants. It also doesn’t help when McConnell even went as far as to financially back a Democrat candidate over a Republican. Clearly McConnell cared more about remaining in control of his merry band of Senators willing to “walk across the aisle” to support Democrat legislation, than he was interested in being Majority Leader of the Senate.

Also the GOP needs to actually have a coherent and concise message going into 2024. This has been a perennial issue for the establishment wing of the Republican Party for several election cycles. Do they even want to have majority control of the Senate to stand up to bad Democrat legislation? In 2022, the GOP had NO REAL MESSAGE or compelling argument for the voters other than “Historically speaking, the party out of power usually picks up seats in the midterms.” Hardly a rousing or compelling reason to “get out the vote” or attract a small percentage of the so-called Independent voters. So until the establishment members of the Republican Party leadership and members of Congress actually want to address and correct the 2 major issues that caused the poor showing in the 2022 midterms, there is no point about talking about GOP congressional prospects for 2024 yet.

Donald Reid
Donald Reid
1 year ago

Very good overview. IMO Biden has been acting as the frontman to carry out Obama’s directives from the shadows. The fact that MSM D media like CNN and MSNBC have shifted to more negative coverage of Biden suggests his time is over. Prediction: for health/family( corruption charges) reasons, Biden will before Nov 24 declare he is stepping down/ resigning. Harris will step in and sign massive Exec orders shredding the Constitution – perhaps some “crisis” that gives her a window.The goal will be to either negate the election or stack the deck for a guaranteed win for the Dems. If this happens the country will split on too many levels. All very sad and part of the price for our nation’s spiritual rebellion against God’s Word and ways.

jocko
jocko
1 year ago

I’M SURE THE REPUBS WILL BLOW IT

Richard Shelton
Richard Shelton
1 year ago

If we’ve learned one thing over the past few years, it’s to NEVER underestimate the ability of the Dims to cheat and steal an election.

John Riley
John Riley
1 year ago

Vote republican then elect Trump. He has a bone to pick and scares the s–t out of the democrats.

Rick
Rick
1 year ago

If the Republicans nominate Trump to run for president…..we will not only lose
the White House, but the congress and senate as well. WE will then find out what
it’s like to live in a socialist state run by Looney Tunes!!!! KISS YOUR WAY OF LIFE
GOODBYE………!!

Ann S
Ann S
1 year ago

The prospects might appear bright. This was also the prediction for the 2022 election. Remember the Red Wave that never came? As long as McConnell decides where campaign funds go to, nothing will change.
The WEF and the Davos elite have everything in hand.
If a DA in New York can arrest a former president for a 130,000 dollar payment and Brandon gets 30 million from the Chinese and nothing is done about it. We are on a ride to nowhere and only the Davos people know where we are going. Keeping the people in the dark. The reps being weak to stand up against them. Placating is not a strategy and only is welcomed by the dems.
We are in the middle of the ocean in a canoe and we lost one oar. Round and round we go.

Steven Glenn Tapper
Steven Glenn Tapper
1 year ago

The only thing keeping the Republicans from winning is the Republicans themselves. Too bad Rush Limbaugh isn’t here anymore to remind them to stick to conservative policies and beliefs to separate themselves from the radical progressives of the left. We need strong, conservative leaders who can articulate common sense approaches to solving our nations problems instead of the Mitch McConnell’s and his ilk currently taking up space in the Senate.

Hdrydr
Hdrydr
1 year ago

As long as the CHEATING continues from the democraps and the uniparty “republicans” aiding their CHEATING, NOTHING WILL CHANGE. The banana republic will not last.

Tim Toroian
Tim Toroian
1 year ago

The GOP needs to play dirty and in every jurisdiction, enact laws that ALL ballot counting will be bipartisan with no more Republican standing back at the doors. Devotions should result in physical pain, something that will be remembered. As well as legal repercussions.

David Millikan
David Millikan
1 year ago

Time will tell if we survive not having WWIII between now and then.

Terry Feitknecht
Terry Feitknecht
1 year ago

It is evident that we should all pray for a 2024 election that only includes ballots that are clearly certified. No exceptions. At least if that happens, we can be sure that our America still stands. Anything else and those who served will know our nation has given its honor away. Without honor and a moral code borne from God’s Word, we would be in the hands of those who just want to hold power for Power’s sake. “We the people” would no longer exist.

Morris Howell
Morris Howell
1 year ago

Have you ever heard the saying “IF YOU AREN’T CHEATING, YOU AREN’T TRYING TO WIN”. This is the democrats strength for elections. Also for Climate Change. It is an all or nothing, keep the republicans out at all cost mind set. They really believe in their little tiny minds they are saving us all. Now I know if you look at the damage the democrats have done in just over two years this is mind boggling, but it is the truth. I am turning my porch light, and other outside lights on starting today in Solidarity for Donald Trump. I wish we could spread this throughout America. We have to be united, we have to figure out how to fund the republicans we back without giving to the RNC, which has chosen to back RINO’s, with our money. AMAC, can you think tank an idea for this? Could you start an organization to fund real republican candidates, because I will not give money to the RNC anymore. But we must find a way to fund the our cause. We need to support our really great people in Washington, and there are some. Jim Jordon, Josh Hawley, Senator Langford, the Montana governor,Kristi Noem, whom would make a great Vice President, or President. These are just a few names of good people trying to do a good job under horrific circumstances in Washington D.C. which voted 94% democratic in the last presidential election. Talk about a hostile work place. Please pray for Donald Trump, our republicans in Washington, and our country in this time of extreme upheaval.

gerald serlin
gerald serlin
1 year ago

The real Q will be will Biden survive (healthwise) for two more years under the stressful circumstances of his position?

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