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The One Data Trend That Could Decide the Election

Posted on Thursday, October 31, 2024
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by Aaron Flanigan
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17 Comments
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With less than a week to go until Election Day, political pundits, operatives, and election watchers are relentlessly scouring swing state polls, demographic trends, and early voting numbers to finalize their analyses of who will occupy the Oval Office come January 2025—and how close the margins will ultimately be. Although swing state polls and early vote tallies are important, the real test for who will win on November 5 is likely far simpler—and could very well come down to one key metric.

Late last month, Gallup quietly released a dataset that has largely fallen under the radar in favor of polling averages and other trendier election-related news. But nonetheless, it could provide strong insight into the results of this November’s election.

On September 24, Gallup released data on “party performance on issues”—a measure that “has been highly predictive of election outcomes in Gallup trends” for the past 19 elections. Going back to 1952, every presidential election save two has been won by the party that voters trusted more to address the issue (or issues) they deem most important. The two exceptions were the 1980 election, when neither party had a discernable issue-based advantage, and the 2000 election, when the question was not asked of voters.

This cycle, perhaps unsurprisingly, the two issues most important to voters are the economy and immigration, where Republicans enjoy a five-point advantage over Democrats.

“By 46% to 41%, Americans say the Republican Party is better able than the Democratic Party to address what they think is the most important problem facing the country,” the Gallup report states. “The top issues Americans currently name as the most important are ones that tend to favor the GOP, including the economy (24%) [and] immigration (22%).”

In 2020, Democrats had an eight-point advantage over Republicans on COVID-19, which voters then saw as the most important issue. In 2016, when Trump won his first term in the White House, Republicans enjoyed a four-point advantage on the top-rated issue of the economy.

During the 2012 and 2008 elections, both of which were won by Barack Obama, Democrats wielded sizable advantages on the economy. And in 2004, when George W. Bush won a second term, Republicans commanded a narrow three-point lead on the Iraq War and the economy.

In other words, if Kamala Harris hopes to eke out a victory against Donald Trump this fall, her biggest challenge may not be substantially improving her standing in the must-win battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada—each of which she is currently losing to Trump in polling averages. It may be overcoming this powerful historical polling trend that stretches back more than seven decades.

With millions of votes already banked through early voting and so little time left before Election Day, it seems highly unlikely that Harris will be able to overcome Trump’s issue advantage.

Moreover, in the critical final days of the race, Harris has made head-scratching, and perhaps even campaign-defining, mistakes—from skipping out on the legendary Al Smith dinner to insisting that Christians are not welcome at her rallies, stating that she would do nothing different from Joe Biden, and face-planting in humiliating fashion during an interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier.

In 1980, when Ronald Reagan won a landslide victory over Jimmy Carter despite not having a polling advantage on the issues, it was thanks to his magnetic personality and ability to articulate a hopeful vision for the future of the country. (Reagan would, of course, quickly earn the confidence of voters on the issues, as shown in the 1984 Gallup poll and his even more overwhelming landslide victory that year.) Harris has nothing close to Reagan’s personal charm or rhetorical skill.

In addition to—and perhaps as a result of—voters’ lack of trust on Harris’s ability to handle the economy and immigration, she is also struggling with Latino voters, black voters, young voters, and even the Arab-American community. Media reports characterize Democrats as increasingly “jittery,” “anxious,” and panicked. Donald Trump also continues to outflank Kamala on the campaign trail—as most recently seen with his viral visit to a McDonald’s restaurant and appearance at a Wisconsin rally in a garbage truck following Biden’s maligning of Trump supporters as “garbage.”

Of course, none of this is to say that Republicans should be complacent or overconfident heading into Election Day. History shows that Democrats will do everything in their power to deprive conservatives of their electoral power. And trends, strong as they may be, can always be broken. Republicans, especially those in swing states, must, as Trump says, make a victory “too big to rig.”

But as the race currently stands, voters are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the state of the country. And no matter how many manufactured stunts or desperate ploys the Harris team makes in the waning days of the campaign, there may be nothing that Kamala Harris can do to alter that reality.

Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.

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Lieutenant Beale
Lieutenant Beale
1 month ago

Of course Harris cannot overcome Trump’s advantage on the issues because she, as well as most Democrats, are mentally, spiritually, morally and intellectually bankrupt.
The only thing that will catapult her into the WH is what kind of nefarious stunt they have up their sleeves that they will pull at the last minute.

Donald
Donald
1 month ago

As with obama neither have anything in the way of any kind of a credible record. If the electorate would only look at those facts instead of ideas like, “Oh, we need our first black president,” or “Oh we need our first female president and even better that she’s a person of color.” Either of their records of public serviced wreak!!! Hello, kamal the border czar never once went to the border until her run for pres. Now she wants to tell us all she’s going to do to make the border safe???? I believe the first criteria for being a demorat is, how well can you lie!!!!!

Joseph
Joseph
1 month ago

Please get out and vote if you haven’t already. Vote early. We need President Trump back in the white house ASAP. MAGA

anna hubert
anna hubert
1 month ago

If she gets in, it will not be the will of the people but fraud which is the modus operandi of the “progressives”

Melinda
Melinda
1 month ago

I’m holding my breath and hoping the Trump victory will, indeed, be too big to rig.

Max
Max
1 month ago

Excellent article. Things will still come down to the wire and what will happen in the Electoral College.

Rik!
Rik!
1 month ago

Obama promised to “transform” America but NEVER explained How? Since we are a Capitalistic country what could he possibly mean? HE WANTS A ONE PARTY RULED COUNTRY LIKE RUSSIA, VENEZUELA OR CUBA WHERE THE PEOPLE SERVE AND HAVE NO FREEDOMS EXCEPT TO DIE!

Kaiju
Kaiju
1 month ago

Great truths in this article, but pray consider that the GOP always seems to succeed in snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory…and…consider the ignorance, gullibility and brainwashing of the average citizen/voter.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
1 month ago

Fascist, misogynist, Nazi, racist, white supremacist, insurrectionists, alt-right, KKK, neocon, wife beaters,… but its “garbage” they walk back? Guess there were apostrophes on those too?

Tidewater
Tidewater
1 month ago

Diversion seeks to cause questions, which will never be answered and the simple “violate the law and pay no attention to the multitude of violations that occur daily.

Lois Keel
Lois Keel
1 month ago

Regardless of how you stand on Abortion, I’m seeing the Democrats also making this a major issue on every candidate. Even if Trump is elected, he may have a House and the 1/3 of the Senate recently elected who are Democrats.

Orion Bennett
Orion Bennett
1 month ago

Really? Covid was the Issue strength for 2020? Almost every conservative I know, was so concerned with covid … that they to this day have not gotten even a sniff of the vaccine. The two or three that did break down and get the jab, did so as their continued employment demanded they get the jab. (I might mention, all have since moved to other employment.). The only people that covid was a real issue with was the cnn watching sheep who would have voted for sniffy regardless of covid. They hated orange man, and intended to make a point with votes … though most sheep I knew ended up not even bothering to vote (they were too busy …). The cheat did it then, and the left is hoping the cheat will do it this time.
Either way, look out for the final call as to the eventual winner. The right is angry about the cheat in 2020 and will not be happy if it happens again. And the left are not bright enough to understand that fascism is what the current administration is doing to it’s citizens, both left and right. I am guessing some blood will be shed …. I hope I’m wrong.

johnh
johnh
1 month ago

I had quite a chuckle yesterday when I saw Trump in a garbage truck in Wisconsin on the news. Republicans made a big mistake last week with Puerto Rico comment at rally about garbage & couple of days later Biden spoke of garbage & now Trump has turned the whole garbage thing back to plate of Democrats. Not much good for America , but is entertaining at times.

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