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What the Polls Got Right and Wrong About Trump’s Historic Night

Posted on Thursday, November 7, 2024
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by Shane Harris
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81 Comments
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As more results are finalized from Tuesday’s election, it looks like the polls once again underestimated Donald Trump’s support nationally and in key battlegrounds. But compared to the major misses in 2020 and 2016, pollsters made noteworthy improvements this year.

If one had only listened to the pundits in the weeks leading up to Election Day, there were two big “surprises” as the votes came in. The first was that Trump swept all seven swing states, handing him a landslide Electoral College victory. The second, and perhaps more unexpected result, was that Trump won the popular vote.

But neither of these results should’ve been all that surprising given the polling data. In the RealClearPolitics average, Harris had a national vote lead of just 0.1 points on Election Day eve. Most polls ranged from Harris +2 to Trump +3, indicating a close race that could go either way given that those polls had a margin of error between one and three percent.

While votes are still being counted, The New York Times projects that Trump will finish with a 1.5-point popular vote advantage. That result is well within the margin of error for most major polls. That’s a far cry from 2020, when the final average showed a 7.2-point advantage for Biden and he won a 4.5-point victory.

The fact that Trump won every swing state was another “surprise” that shouldn’t have been all that surprising. In the RCP averages, Trump led in every swing state except Michigan and Wisconsin, where Harris led by half a percent. Once again, a Trump victory was still within the margin of error in those states.

Nonetheless, the polls still underestimated Trump’s support in every swing state. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s actual margin was 1.5 points higher than his advantage in the last RCP average. In Georgia Trump did 0.9 points better, in North Carolina he did 2.2 points better, in Michigan he did 2 points better, in Wisconsin he did 1.3 points better, in Arizona he did 2.4 points better, and in Nevada he did 4.2 points better – by far the biggest polling miss in the seven swing states.

These elections were still close, although Trump won Wisconsin and Georgia by larger margins than Biden did in 2020. On average, the battleground polls underestimated Trump’s support by about 1.3 points – enough for him to carry every swing state. This was a marked improvement from four years ago, when state-level polls underestimated Trump by sometimes as much as six and seven percent.

What the polls appear to have missed was the breadth of Trump’s support not just in the battlegrounds, but nationwide. Trump winning any one swing state in itself is not surprising – the fact that he won all seven points to a deeper trend among the electorate that most pollsters did not predict.

Trump’s performance vs. the polls was notably better in the Sun Belt than the Upper Midwest, a trend to pay attention to in future cycles. Nevada saw a seven-point swing from the 2020 results there, with Trump running far ahead of the polls. In Texas, Trump won by 14 after polls showed him up just nine. It was the same story in Florida, with Trump winning by 13 after polls showed him up eight.

Ohio was another pleasant surprise for Trump that pointed to deeper support for Trump nationally than many polls indicated. After Trump won the state by about eight points in 2016 and 2020, most polls showed a similar result this year. The actual result was that Trump won by more than 11 points, continuing a rightward trend in what was once a perennial swing state.

In hindsight, Trump always should’ve been considered a strong favorite heading into Election Day. Harris’s sudden entry into the race in late July gave her a honeymoon boost in the national polls as the media heaped praise on her and a reinvigorated Democrat machine tried to boost her over the top.

But in the battlegrounds Harris struggled to gain an advantage over Trump, running neck and neck with him throughout August, September, and early October. By mid-October Trump had seized back the momentum and the initiative, closing the gap in the national polls and building a lead in the battleground polls.

There will certainly be plenty of well-founded discussions in Democrat circles in the weeks and months ahead about how so many believed so strongly that Harris had a clear path to victory, and even that she was a favorite in the race.

At least part of this belief appears to have been founded on biased outlier polls and a willful ignorance about what the reliable polls were actually saying. Having worked so hard to convince the public that Trump is the embodiment of human evil, Democrat insiders seem to have convinced themselves that no one could possibly vote for him.

This time, however, Democrats who feel blindsided by the result can’t blame woefully inaccurate polls as they did in 2016. A Trump victory was always staring them in the face – they just refused to see it.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.

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Linder
Linder
1 month ago

Answered prayer for many. TRUMP FOREVER!!

Gina
Gina
1 month ago

It appears to me that these polls forgot to include the horrific “policies” Biden-Harris put in place and their affect on the American populace. During his first 100 days in office, Biden shut down the Keystone pipeline forcing many out of employment. Then Biden doubled down on COVID-19 “vaccine requirements” causing many to go against their beliefs. Of course, Trump’s keeping many of Obama’s “henchmen” didn’t help. Then there was Harris’ failure to secure the border, which allowed millions to enter the country illegally, impacting the lower border states negatively. There are many other instances to write about, but I believe the point has been made.
Trump is not perfect, but his love for America shows. I believe he has learned much after his first term, and he has a good balance with Vance.
I look forward to seeing his cabinet choices.

Joe
Joe
1 month ago

The vast majority of pollster’s sampling is biased, so I don’t rely on them going into an election.

C. Harris
C. Harris
1 month ago

Shane, from one Harris to another, it was all GOD! President Trump has even said it. He is still with us for a purpose. Let’s work together with him.
He is the President for all Americans!

Marie Saqueton
Marie Saqueton
1 month ago

This will show the let that we the people really love Trump for his ability to lead and his foresight for our future in the world stage. Congratulations Pres. Trump.

Philip Seth Hammersley
Philip Seth Hammersley
1 month ago

Polls are only as good as the samples they choose. These corrupt outlets always over sample DIMMs. However, it was good to think it was closer as it made the MAGA voters want to get off their duffs and vote! Don’t expect any apologies from these creeps; especially the dame who said Kackler was winning Iowa by 3% when she got beat by over 10%.

Thinking
Thinking
1 month ago

The dems created this thinking by persecuting Trump the past 4 years that they even came to believe Trump was the incumbent. But the people saw what was going on. They were better off under Trump. The dems kept blaming Trump for every failure of their policies the past 4 years. They are still saying it was racism and sexism that runs rapid in this country, according to the dems and the talking heads on MSM, that is why they lost. Only it held no truth. The people saw their plan to prosecute and persecute Trump for everything that was wrong in this country. Biden Harris are still stonewalling that Trump is bad and they are the answer to the future. They will never admit any failures or shortcomings. She was told “you haven’t been to the border” by saying “I haven’t been to Europe either”. That makes no sense. The people, no matter what race, what gender, voted for Trump. No racism no sexism involved. It was a matter of who was a leader for America and who was a spokes person for the Global elites. They spent a billion dollars to get her elected. This shows the citizens of the United States of America were United in rejecting the democrat premise that bankrupting the nation to make a global world through dictatorial policies and executive orders and compromised judges doesn’t work. It’s the people that have the say how America should be governed. It will take years to undo the damage Biden Harris have done to this country. Let us go forward as one people United in the resolve America is the land of the Free and home of the Brave. For the people, of the people and by the people.

J. FARLEY
J. FARLEY
1 month ago

The polls were wrong, but the polls had nothing to do with how I voted, if the polls had said 99.999% of the people were voting for Trump. i would have voted for Trump any way or if the polls said that 99.999 % of the people said they were voting for Harris, I would have still voted for Trump. The polls have no bearing on how I vote, I spend 6 hours a day online and 7 hours a day watching news programs, I knew the issues and I knew the polls were wrong, I voted as I have always voted. I voted to protect the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.
We must not vote according to the polls, we all must vote to protect our freedom, as we are the last best hope for a decaying world.
We have one final opportunity, to save this nation and my advice to the Republicans who now control our government, choice your legislation wisely and stay away from petty infighting and reward those Democrat or Republican who work with you to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Diane Kennelly
Diane Kennelly
1 month ago

I was employed with a group that polled people all over the country, during the Obama campaign. We asked the questions written for the survey… but the questions were worded so that it led up to them voting for the Democrats. They omitted parts of the stories that we were supposedly quoting from. They exaggerated statements made by Republicans. It was a farce and was certainly NOT a real, honest poll.
They would have our group of callers give surveys on the phone (within a day or even several days) until they got the statistics they wanted. Then they would shut down and telli us to go home, or start making calls for a different survey.
After Obama won… the head of the company visited and made the comment that our supervisor “single handedly got Obama elected.”
What does that tell you?
I don’t believe ANY of the polls or statistics prior to the election! They are all skewed, as far as I’m concerned.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
1 month ago

If the polls were accurate, it would have accurately predicted the outcome. They’re worthless because if anyone is like me, I see a number I don’t recognize, it goes straight to BLOCK.

Jon W
Jon W
1 month ago

Polls don’t work because most conservatives have better things to do than to answer some leftist leaning poll. This is why the polls are so skewed. It is no ones business what we think unless we want to share it. Most do not want to.

Granny
Granny
1 month ago

I’m grateful this part of President Trump’s fight is over. Now, with help, perhaps he can accomplish what he wants for the country – which seems to be very close to what WE want also. God Bless this man…he must be exhausted but still continues on. God has given our country grace and possibly mercy for one more time; I pray we well honor this privilege and stand in the gap instead of be apathetic and lethargic in letting things happen that we have to fight years down the road. This mess is REALLY our fault for not doing something when things happened…abortion, education decline, transgendering our children, hate, censoring religion, encouraging deviant behavior, scorning the law and Constitution, and allowing the medical profession to get wealthy doing operations which in any other country would be murder!

Jeanie Moore
Jeanie Moore
1 month ago

I’m so very thankful Trump is running for election again! Our President in America should be a man & as Trump is…honest & upright!!!

Enuf Said
Enuf Said
1 month ago

Does ANYBODY believe more people voted in 2020 THAN in 2024!

Judy Ross
Judy Ross
1 month ago

We just had the most important election in the history of this nation and I am looking at the statistics. No one, and I can guess why, has addressed this glaring discrepancy so I am going to mention it here.
Did you know that Biden (supposedly) received 81,283,501 popular votes to President Trump’s 74,223,975 in 2020?
Yet, in 2016 President Trump received (supposedly) only 62,984,828 (yet more electoral votes) to Hillary’s popular votes 65,853,514?
In this 2024 election Kamala received 67,961,051 popular votes, only about 2,100,000 more than Hillary got in 2016?
Donald Trump’s total for 2024 popular votes (as of Nov. 7) is only 72,646,926 so far and he has 295 electoral votes (only 270 are needed to win).
If you subtract Kamala’s number of popular votes (2024 – 67,961,051) from Biden’s (supposed 2020 81,283,501) the difference is 13,322,000?
So, the question is: Why didn’t those (supposedly) 13,322,000 folks who “voted for Biden” in the 2020 election, if they really existed, vote for Kamala in 2024? We KNOW that they didn’t vote for President Trump as he’s still 2,000,000 votes down from 2020.
What do you think?

MAGA2024
MAGA2024
1 month ago

GOD was looking out for AMERICA, and he spared Trumps life in July!

Olga Lena
Olga Lena
1 month ago

I think the polls were fraudulent just like the 2020 election. If it looked like voters were really behind Harris and trusted her, those undecided may vote for her.

American Patriot
American Patriot
1 month ago

I hope Trump starts sueing the news outlets for slander. If Guiliani could be sued by the mother/daughter in Georgia for defamation, that opens the door…….

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
1 month ago

Polls always skewed by Dems for thier side to win, cant trust them

Michael J
Michael J
1 month ago

The polls were effective in making Americans believe the race was too close to call, when in fact the fake numbers were so skewed in Harris’ favor. Trump had to win way beyond a shadow of doubt so that nobody could spin the results.

Tidewater
Tidewater
1 month ago

Polls are a nemesis and should be sunk! The evidence of corruption, debt, and all else by the incompetents was enough. Americans do NOT want any more corruption and several articles are providing the path to the demise of politics, liars, and many other now barriers to American citizens. Yes, change is coming and it will sweep away the corrupt, money, lying and all other simpleton motivations these fools still cling to.
Representation is the new watch word, and it will also change the entire selfish run rules and entirely new guidelines and public insistence will kick butt and change it all!
The raft is sinking and good riddance.

Truth
Truth
1 month ago

Demons would have won in lies and cheating!!!

Chet Lambert
Chet Lambert
1 month ago

What we should all know by now is that the polls reflect what the pollsters want them to reflect. Be careful who you trust.

Dot whitley
Dot whitley
1 month ago

God had mercy on us. The real Christians who prayed for Trump to win, would do well to remember that God is ruling and reigning, and apart from His answering our repentant prayers for our sins,we would have had no hope. We must keep praying,and take God seriously, because this was possibly our last chance at getting our America back.

Glen
Glen
1 month ago

Most of the polls are lies, with made-up numbers or biases that favor the Democrats. This is done so that when they try to cheat in the election, which is really supposed to be their SELECTION, no one becomes too suspicious. Their “polls” always show that the candidate of their choice is always ahead. If you wanted to understand the real popularity of the candidates, you just had to look at the size of the rallies and listen to what they are saying. In this election, we also saw what each individual’s policies did to or for the country. Finally, there

Leslie
Leslie
1 month ago

I never read articles touting polls. I see only headlines as I scroll right past them. Based on the low viewership on election night, I’d say I am in the majority. Sick of polls, sick of the MSM only reporting part of the story. Glad that this is over and when half of the “other” side quit pouting (the rest will continue with TDS), hopefully they will get on board with fixing America and help bring America back together.

greasemaker
greasemaker
1 month ago

Harris was not qualified for the job and proved it time and time again. Just because she was a woman and some thought it was time to have one in that office does not cut it…Can’t see what people are thinking now days. Joe was not in any shape to be in from the beginning also.

TX Conservative
TX Conservative
29 days ago

I used to be signed up for a legitimate long-time/well-known polling entity that was doing online polling. Every so often they’d send me an email to do a poll. Not once was I able to complete one of their polls because the questions and answers were horribly, horribly, horribly biased. Not quite this bad, but most of the questions were of the ilk “Do you support Obama or are you a Nazi?” It was awful! So, after a year I just unsubscribed, having never once being able to complete a survey. As best I can tell it’s only gotten worse, much worse, since then.

uncleferd
uncleferd
1 month ago

On a related topic, I have to say it’s a bit shocking to me that Joe Biden lasted (in politics) even until 2008, given that he’s often exhibited the roadside manner of a high-schooler who routinely requires alternating doses of supervision and forgiveness. Obviously, Obama’s ego was far too big and fragile to accommodate a running mate with any chance at all of upstaging him… but I would have feared that choosing “Young Joe” allowed WAY too big a risk of him losing track of a moment, and engaging in forms of indiscretion that could draw a far more attention than respect. His Dad’s union connections provided his “leg up” in politics, per my understanding, which could be a fair clue of why he never seemed to reach a more refined stage of development. Had there been much more documented material on his “antics” during his heavily-assisted assent into politics, I’d have to wonder how he was ever accepted by the Delaware BAR Association. Only in America, could a guy like Joe Biden become POTUS… but I surely hope the rest of us are still evolving.

Jeri
Jeri
1 month ago

One needs to understand that polls are one of the easiest things on the planet to manipulate.

Emily Watson
Emily Watson
1 month ago

Is there a minimum percentage of electoral and/or popular votes received for a result to be considered a landslide? LBJ, Nixon, and Reagan had landslide victories. I would say Trump’s margin was comfortable but not a landslide.

Judith
Judith
29 days ago

The common man has spoken.

ROBIN
ROBIN
29 days ago

I never got polled….im a TRUMP SUPPORTER..

Irma Craig
Irma Craig
1 month ago

I believe that a lot of Republicans and conservatives refused to participate in these polls or were seriously undersampled.

Elaine
Elaine
1 month ago

I think the polls underestimating the lead that Trump had was a good thing. In 2020 a lot sat at home and didn’t bother to go vote because it was predicted that Trump would win in a “Red Landslide”. When there is almost a tie whether it be from polls or an actual count people will be willing to get out and vote for Their Choice!
My wish is that the polls be eliminated and let it be a true surprise at the end of the campaign game!

Orion Bennett
Orion Bennett
1 month ago

Probably a lot of effort to cut through the numbers in this article …. something not really said was …. in 2020 the democrats cheated. At 74 years of age, a guy who has been around the block many times … there is no way in Hell, that anyone is going to convince me that Arizona in 2020 turned blue. Arizona has been red, as long as I’ve been voting, and there are two elections where I didn’t vote republican. There was a cheat in 2020 … found mail in ballots, that just happened to put biden over the top. BULL … found ballots in a drawer in some democrats office maybe. There is no way that a mentally fading old man … who barely left his basement, when he did leave, and had a ‘rally’ the only people who showed up were the media. Beat Trump by 10 million votes. Nope … numbers that could say otherwise, be damned … no way!
In Arizona in 2022 the cheat was in … Kari Lake should have been Governor … Katie Hobbs, was not that popular as Secretary of State … and yet she got more votes than Kari Lake … and didn’t even recuse herself … certifying her win? Come on … numbers are great for figuring out if you have the money to buy groceries … but forecasting popularity contests? Give me a break.
I intentionally sway every poll I have ever been asked to give my opinion on, and know a lot of people that do the same. Why give them any insight? Does it put money in my pocket? If not “Are you gonna vote for a lying black white brown woman who can’t define women for president?” Me: of course I will … nudge nudge wink wink.
Polls are stupid … they prove nothing, and mislead the voters … and should be banned.

TPS
TPS
1 month ago

Polls mean nothing and this election should prove that to all those spewing them. IMO

SCbubba
SCbubba
29 days ago

I have NO USE for pollsters, or their so-called “results”. In over 50 years, I’ve never been polled. Pollsters need to get REAL jobs!

Chicken Nuggets
Chicken Nuggets
29 days ago

I can’t believe how ignorant some of you are for admiring a politician. Trump got my vote because he cut my taxes but he’s garbage just like Harris and Biden, all have so many sex scandals you can’t even count them, but Trump cut my taxes and that’s what matters and oh gee enough with the religion, it doesn’t mix with politics

John C
John C
29 days ago

Trump is the embodiment of pure evil because he refused to concede the 2020 election and tried to cause a civil war over it. I’m a member of the GOP and they have better policies on most issues. My vote was straight ticket GOP except Harris over Trump not because I liked her but because Trump is pure evil. Now that Trump is in again will he grow up or be his usual self which only hurts the GOP. I still don’t understand how 3/4 of the GOP falls for him. He is a corrupt criminal who cares only about himself and wants absolute power.

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President Joe Biden, son Hunter Biden and sister Valerie Biden walk across the South Lawn of The White House on July 28, 2024 in Washington, DC. President Biden is returning from a weekend trip to Camp David. (Photo by Michael A. McCoy/Getty Images)
President-elect Donald Trump shakes hands with Dana White during the UFC 309 event at Madison Square Garden on November 16, 2024 in New York City.

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