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Is Virginia About to Swing Red? Evidence Indicates the Blue Wave Has Crested In the Old Dominion

Posted on Tuesday, June 22, 2021
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by AMAC Newsline
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85 Comments
Virginia

AMAC Exclusive by Daniel Roman

Conservatives have had little to celebrate in Virginia politics over the last decade. Since Republicans last swept the statewide offices in the 2009 off-year elections, Virginia’s political history has been the tale of the long march of the left through the states’ offices until Democrats took full control of both houses of the legislature in 2019. What followed was a near cultural revolution, as the new Democratic-dominated government passed laws restricting gun ownership, eliminated prison sentences for a host of offenses to public order, retroactively ratified the Equal Rights Amendment (a failed Constitutional Amendment from 1972), allowed for no-excuse absentee voting, and voted to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, thereby seeking to do an end-run around the Constitution in order to abolish the electoral college.

Yet the tide may finally be starting to turn against Virginia Democrats. On June 8th, the Democratic Party held its primaries – the Republican party having opted the month before for an “unassembled convention” – and the Left suffered a series of stunning defeats. Not only did “old white male” Terry McAuliffe, a former governor and long-time Clinton fixer and crony, easily defeat a diverse set of left-wing challengers with 62.17% of the vote, but several of the most left-wing members of the state legislature lost renomination.

This may be a sign that mainstream Democrats sense the growing backlash against their far-left governance of the state, and are eager to rid themselves of the most problematic figures on their own side.

In the general election, Democrats are now facing the most formidable Virginia Republican candidate in decades in the form of Glenn Youngkin.

Youngkin is running on the promise to provide a commonsense alternative and balance in Richmond. A successful businessman unconnected with the factional quarrels and failures which have come to define the last decade of Republican politics in Virginia, he emerged at the Republican convention with a message focusing on local issues of state governance. He is well placed to transcend the two major elements of the state. His tenure as CEO of the Carlyle Group, one of the premier success stories of Northern Virginia, makes him an embodiment of everything that attracted millions of new residents to the growing region. His strong conservatism shows that unlike many others who moved to the region for jobs, he knows precisely why Virginia—with its low taxes, low crime, and small government—historically proved more attractive than Maryland.

In effect, Glenn Youngkin is running a campaign challenging the left-wing transformation of Virginia by appealing to a more positive vision of the past. Previous Republican candidates, such as one-time Virginia Governor and former U.S. Senator George Allen, and 2017 Governor candidate Corey Stewart, ran afoul of public sentiment when they became associated with Confederate nostalgia. There was an irony here. Both were Northern migrants, Allen from California, and Stewart from Minnesota. Both fell too easily into the trap of playing a caricature, one which saw George Allen make an excruciating musical appearance as a singing Confederate officer in the film Gods and Generals, while Stewart seemed to make association with Confederate monuments and the flag the centerpiece of his campaigns, while mocking the immigrant ancestry of his primary rival Ed Gillespie.

Glenn Youngkin has no such need to prove his Virginia credentials. Youngkin was born in Richmond, grew up in Virginia Beach, and attended school in Norfolk. A native Virginian all his life, one with experience of different parts of the Commonwealth, Youngkin has no need to create a fictionalized past to contrast with the present. He can and is appealing to a real past. A past in which Virginia’s commitment to small government and individual liberty helped light the fires of the American Revolution, and to save it from the excesses of Alexander Hamilton’s efforts to impose centralized rule with the Alien and Sedition acts. He is reminding Virginians that their state is the land of Patrick Henry and George Washington.

Virginia’s history is also one in which the Republican Party played a proud role. In the 1880s, the Republican Party ruled the state, introducing the first integrated public school system and seeking to eliminate racial differences, only to be overthrown through fraud by a Democratic Party which argued that different races could never work together. That is a tradition the Democratic Party is still following today through its promotion of Critical Race Theory in Virginia schools. There is no need for Republicans to reject their history when it was a former Confederate General, one of Robert E. Lee’s hardest hitting commanders, William Mahone, who oversaw that multi-racial Republican political coalition in 1881, one of the first in the nation.

As a true-born Virginian, and a native Republican, Youngkin has been able to appeal to the best of the state’s identity in offering a conservative alternative to the far-left liberalism of the statewide elected Democrats and the awkward confederate nostalgia of migrant politicians in both parties.

Voters appear to be responding to this message. In post-primary polls, Youngkin is neck and neck with Democrat Terry McAuliffe, trailing by a mere 48%-46% no small achievement given McAuliffe’s name recognition as a former governor. It is even more impressive when one considers that Donald Trump lost the state by nearly 10% in 2020 after losing it by 5% in 2016. It is also worth noting that McAuliffe in particular has a history of massively underperforming his polling numbers. In 2013, when he last ran for governor, he led by an average of 7% only to win by 2%. If that pattern holds, it would imply that Youngkin is currently ahead.

Furthermore, there are signs that even Democrats are concerned about the political impact of their far-left governance in the commonwealth. Three of the most left-wing members of the legislature lost renomination.

One of them was Ibraheem Samirah in the 86th District, who famously disrupted a speech in Jamestown, Virginia by President Donald Trump in 2019.  President Trump was the honored guest of the Virginia General Assembly that had convened in special session to celebrate its 400th anniversary as the oldest legislative assembly in the Western Hemisphere.  Samirah shouted and held up signs that said “Deport Hate,” “Reunite My Family” and “Go Back to Your Corrupted Home.” “The fact that the racist-in-chief, who so openly stokes hate against immigrants, was even invited to this event is insulting to Virginians and insulting to the history of our Commonwealth’s democracy,” Samirah later wrote on Twitter, declaring “The man is unfit for office and unfit to partake in a celebration of democracy, representation, and our nation’s history of immigrants.” On June 8th, 2021, voters in Samirah’s district decided he was unfit for office, evicting him by a 52%-48% margin in favor of a Jewish challenger who denounced his support for Ilhan Omar.

In the 50th district, Lee Carter, a two-term state representative who described himself openly as a “Socialist” and co-chaired Bernie Sanders’ campaign in the state not only failed to make a dent in his run for governor, winning a mere 2.77%, but also was defeated for renomination to the legislature with only 38% of the vote.  

The most prominent figure ousted was Mark Levine, a longtime fixture of the left who also ran for Lt. Governor. Levine had argued against the Supreme Court’s Bush v. Gore decision in 2001, calling Bush an “illegitimate” President and served as Counsel to Representative Barney Frank where he tried to argue that Faith-Based Initiatives were unconstitutional. Levine not only was defeated for Lt. Governor. He lost his seat in the House of Delegates on the same day.   

There are five months to go until election day, but signs are that Republicans have the best chance in 12 years to reverse Virginia’s bluing trend. They have a star candidate, a united party, and are facing a Democratic Party that has embraced left-wing extremism in office. All they need is a little luck—and they may succeed in turning Virginia red.

Daniel Roman is the pen name of a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics.

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Joseph
Joseph
2 years ago

Don’t see it but enjoyed the article. Very informative, but those densely populated leftist northern counties decide everything. And I think Virginia is long gone. But I will be glad to be wrong as I don’t live there and I’m not on the ground there. KAG

Joyce Gibson
Joyce Gibson
2 years ago

I certainly hope the Republicans win in Virginia this year. I am certainly working as hard as I can to help this happen.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

Hooray, awesome shake up DC elites alone

Phil Hammersley
Phil Hammersley
2 years ago

Hopefully, even some DIMMs are waking up to the Marxist (communist) leanings of their party. Do they really want “The Punk” McAuliffe, a Clinton butt-kisser, to regain the governor’s chair?

Ellen
Ellen
2 years ago

They may need luck, but they really need fair and honest elections!!

DJames
DJames
2 years ago

Patriots, This is encouraging news. States must take control to combat the Socialist federal government. Commie Joe, Harris, Pelosi, Schumer, and Obama need to see the will of the people.
The groundswell of Democracy is finally starting to build. We must pray to God for courageous leaders to forge ahead and not back down to this evil corruption in Washington.

George Washington's Admirer
George Washington's Admirer
2 years ago

Hope that Republicans win in Virginia this year. As a lifelong student of history; I was chagrined at the removal of General Robert E. Lee’s statue from the capitol of Virginia. When will they manage to remove President George Washington off of the face of the earth? This supposedly solaced the oppressed. This will not satisfy the Communists. Our history will be discredited then buried in the sands of antiquity. Our Founding Father’s statues desecrated then put in ‘storage’. Nothing will be politically correct. NOTHING. Eventually, Communists will destroy their own history; when there is nothing left to destroy.

Janette Lewis
Janette Lewis
2 years ago

I hope Glenn Youngkin wins in Virginia. If I live there I would vote for him.

Paul
Paul
2 years ago

For the sake of the USA,We need to turn a few more Red.Illinios,Colorado,New Mexico,California.We need to clean up the USA and rid ourselves of the Communism.

Daniel
Daniel
2 years ago

I wish that everyone would stop referring to the Democrat Party and the Democrats as Democratic. They are NOT democratic and the party is NOT the Democratic Party.

Coral
Coral
2 years ago

You are presuming victory dependent on honest elections…praying for election integrity to return to our voting rights….

HocasPocas
HocasPocas
2 years ago

With all of the election fraud that happened in November of 2020, and I’m going guess prior to and after, how would anyone really know what the margin of defeat or victory really is/was?

Ed J
Ed J
2 years ago

Let’s hope that the reemergence of the Republicans and conservatives in Virginia politics is only the beginning of becoming a light at the end of the tunnel – a light that will progressively increase into a blinding flash across our entire nation!
 
It is essential to the continued existence and flourishing of our Republic that those who embrace any of the radical leftist, socialist dystopian ideologies be isolated and relegated back to the fringes of our political society, or better yet, consigned to the dustbin of history as insignificant footnotes, or best yet, not even recorded in history.

Kitty
Kitty
2 years ago

As a native Virginian now happily living in South Carolina, I’m still delighted at the prospect of seeing Virginia return to sane and conservative, Republican leadership. I’d like to be proud once more to say to one and all, I’m a native born Virginian!

PaulE
PaulE
2 years ago

The glaring omission in this article is any mention of Virginia being home to an ever increasing amount of federal government workers, which overwhelmingly vote Democrat. Yes Youngkin may be a strong Republican challenger offering both a return to proven common sense solutions of the past, those pre-socialist ideals that delivered a better overall economy and superior societal environment, but he needs to have enough of an electorate left in the state to appeal to. Bottom line: No where in the article does the author state what is the breakdown of registered Democrat versus Republican voters. Assuming the state election is honest and does not include the type of relaxed to non-existent voter ID standards that were the hallmark in so many blue states in 2020.

Looking at the stats available on-line, it is clear the northern districts of Virginia have indeed been inundated by an influx of federal government workers from Washington, D.C., which is why the state flipped from solid red to solid blue. So the question then becomes what percentage of the Democrat voters in the state are truly open enough to voting Republican? Luck is NOT a strategy for success as much as the author might like us to think so.

answierd
answierd
2 years ago

About 20 some years ago I was traveling through Virginia and found it odd to see immigration officers so far from the border.I’m wondering now if they registered immigrants to vote Demacratic and swing that state to blue.I also wonder if this is the blueprint for future

phoenix
phoenix
2 years ago

NOT VA (NOVA) is the democrat hive of scum and villany. I hop e the VA can turn it around. I hate have a blue state anywhere near where I live.

Leland Eagleson
Leland Eagleson
2 years ago

Every election in the last few decades that voting machines have been used has been favored by the Dominion system, NOT human actions. 2020 proved the entire nation is red and the blue cities use of Dominion ensures the degradation of the election process. Get rid of the machines and return to original standards with NO mail in ballots..

Judi
Judi
2 years ago

Now if only CA can turn it around!

Judy
Judy
2 years ago

None of our rights and privilege to vote will matter if Senator Joe Manchin caves to the ‘demon spawn’ Democrats, and the election killing HR-1 bill passes the Senate.

Todd Wagner
Todd Wagner
2 years ago

I don’t care how much a DEMOCRAT claims they are moderate, they always lie! VOTE RED VIRGINIA! Get rid of the damn machines, vote in person unless you have applied for a legit absentee ballot, election day is one day not 2 not 3 not 15 not 20, postmarks and signatures matter, and ID REQUIRED!

Nina Rae
Nina Rae
2 years ago

“All they need is a little luck”? Any Republican running for any office had better keep a VERY close eye on the voting system in their state! Luck won’t get you far if the System is corrupted. Every state should be required to re-verify their voting system…from top to bottom. Dominion machines should be discarded & never again allowed in any state voting system. Supervision of the vote counting should be a priority and both parties allowed to participate without obstruction. Mail in votes should meet a strict criteria, to eliminate the possibility of fraud.
The Democrat Governor of Nevada has pushed hard to get mail in ballots sent to every registered voter! The huge problem is that Nevada, particularly Las Vegas, is a highly mobile community. People move a lot, changing apartments or leaving a job or the state, & do not always forward their mail. In the recent Presidential election seeing piles of ballots on the ground under apartment mailboxes was a common sight, hundreds of them all over the city! Anyone could pick them up! Voter fraud must be stopped before we can be confident about the system again.

JohnH
JohnH
2 years ago

Looks like Biden will cause a lot of Red Voting. This is important, but only increases the division in America. Biden needs to focus on the two major crisis at the moment: Southern Border & Cyberattacks. The US Government must lead the charge to protect our electrical grid systems and provide expertise for all states/companies to Stop/Prevent cyberattacks. Contact your representatives & tell them what you think is important to future of America. Plus, in these elections will the Red voters ever accept election results again????

JohnH
JohnH
2 years ago

Someone just sent email that said ” Do not charge electric cars in California due to power shortage”. Cannot verify, but sound real to me & wonder if Biden Admin will heed warning or just ignore. Seems like the drought & power shortage has been in new for at least a month now. A pro-active approach to a problem is much better than reactive one.

Hal
Hal
2 years ago

If the majority of true citizens that want to protect and defend a Consitutional Govenrnment run by competent honest elected government officials, they will never vote again for a DemocRat in the foreseeable future … in any State or any political office at any level of government. Of course the first order of business is to fix the flaws that were apparent in the last POTUS election and put a senile, historically crooked bird brain in the Presidency. The voting system failed because it thwarted the true will of the majority of citizens. It has to be fixed muy pronto.

Brenda Blunt
Brenda Blunt
2 years ago

The TRUE person will win. A person who doesn’t have to invent anything or belittle anyone SHOULD be the right person for the job.

Joan
Joan
2 years ago

It’s a shame for the good people of beautiful Virginia that they have so many members of the disgusting DC swamp residing in the northern portion. Swamp creatures are ruining Virginia.

Squid
Squid
2 years ago

Optimistic only if the fraud isn’t still being used to change the actual vote.

Old Silk
Old Silk
2 years ago

If only they can stop the fraud there that has been going on at least since 1994 when the left sued to keep the polls open long enough to get their voters from other states in line to vote, while they lied and told the court that lines were so long that there was no way they could get in to vote before poll closing.

Harold Senekr
Harold Senekr
2 years ago

Glenn Youngkin will have to overcome the 100 million Democrat votes held in reserve in northern Virginia’s DC suburbs after the vote has been reported everywhere else in Virginia, and the Dems know how many of them they need to report to win…

Samco
Samco
2 years ago

We need to rid this country of democrats and anyone who does not abide to GODS laws or we will cease to be a nation.

Patricia R.
Patricia R.
2 years ago

Wouldn’t that be a blessing. So many Democrats do not abide by God’s law, just look how our
president,VP, Pelosi and other approve of abortions.. That is murder and the Bible tells us so.
Biden is bringing another 9/11 into our country, but this time it’s walking in at the southern border.
God help!!! that’s our only help. God said if His people would turn from their wicked ways, He
would bless their land. We have a very long way to go…

Patricia R.
Patricia R.
2 years ago

Look at what lies ahead for our country. Biden is creating another 9/11, only not with air planes but
walking through our Southern border… He made this horrible crisis, and then there’s abortion. He
approves of it, that’s murder. God tells us if His people will turn from their wicked ways He will bless
their land.We have a very long way to go God help us,He is the only answer for our country.

Paul Puletti
Paul Puletti
2 years ago

Conservatives, by large margins, believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump and several R House candidates. Youngkin’s biggest challenge will be convincing the base that they’re not wasting their time going to the polls.

Andrew P
Andrew P
2 years ago

The best thing Youngkin has going for him is that Roe v Wade will not be overturned until June 2022 – long after the election for Governor takes place. However, the case may be heard before the VA election, or not, depending on how SCOTUS schedules the case. If it is heard before or around election time, the Media will broadcast saturation scare stories to get the affluent suburban voters to vote Democrat, regardless of other issues. We will see what happens.

Charles
Charles
2 years ago

“the Republican party having opted the month before for an “unassembled convention”

No pesky voters to influence the outcome.

Hannah Tee
Hannah Tee
2 years ago

Your racism is showing

Hannah Tee
Hannah Tee
2 years ago

This article is ridiculous. It claims VA dems are embracing the far left while noting that several of the most leftist candidates have been booted… by the Dems. And it’s penned by an anonymous someone using a pen name. What? Realise Repubs are so toxic following the abysmal Trump years and insurrection attempt that putting your name to something so poisonous would risk ridicule?

Hal
Hal
2 years ago

“There is no honor among thieves.” now has a corollary phrase …. “There is no honor among Democrats.” Republicans better do what is necessary to fix the abused voting system so that a repeat of the last POTUS election will not reoccur.

Howard Hirsch
Howard Hirsch
2 years ago

The VA GOP’s electoral disaster of 2019 was due in large part because they failed to field candidates for 36 delegate seats.

I’m not as optimistic about November as the author is, but even then, the most important thing to remember is that you don’t win if you don’t show up.

Gary Swanzy
Gary Swanzy
2 years ago

Unfortunately, a lot of democrats moved to Virginia to get out of the crap of D.C. and Maryland but brought their crappy values with them and will vote for anyone with a D by their name no matter how much the state is in shambles.

Edward Hornik
Edward Hornik
2 years ago

VA may be lost. DC is a swamp and the swamp is overflowing

Warren Miller
Warren Miller
2 years ago

Mr. Roman needs a copy editor. In the seventh paragraph, he begins the third sentence with a glaring redundancy, which the late NYT lexicographer, Bill Safire, would call a ‘howler’ (because the writing glitch was so dreadful it made him howl in pain)::

A native Virginian all his life

Please awaken either Mr. Roman or his somnambulating Copy Editor.

WDM

Ron Howard
Ron Howard
2 years ago

We should welcome any Blue state that becomes a Rede state.

Deborah
Deborah
2 years ago

Pray that Virginia does go RED that would be a great change for the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Charlie Adkins
Charlie Adkins
2 years ago

Obviously we need a better understanding of our history. This was an important

JohnH
JohnH
2 years ago

Virginia must get better control of School Board meetings: the First Amendment is for a reason and it is not to be bullies & obnoxious at public meetings cuz you think you are the smartest person in the room. Most school boards are elected but not paid & do not deserve to be treated like this.

Gabby Talker
Gabby Talker
2 years ago

Biden single handed led the nation to the brink of civil war, led our enemy’s to say that if we accused them of letting Corvid 19 loose on the world killing millions, and opening to boarder has proven HE IS the enemy. He should be tried as a trader and hung.

Karen
Karen
2 years ago

Go Virginia, you will not regret it if you go red At least we have more sanity.

Johnny Davis
Johnny Davis
2 years ago

The Republican Party needs to be reformed in order to truly become a party of Lincoln rooted in the principles of the Declaration. Such a party could win millions of minority votes and would dominant states like Virginia. Youngkin is running a Romney-style campaign destined for defeat. And Carlyle Group was one of the biggest financiers of exporting jobs and building up China at the expense of the USA. Youngkin is a hardcore globalist and does not represent the change needed.

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