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Heading Into Convention Season, President Trump Looks Formidable

Posted on Monday, July 8, 2024
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by Paul Ingrassia
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Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore | Flickr

One is hard-pressed to imagine a better case scenario for President Trump a week out from the Republican National Convention, which is set to formally begin on July 15.  Over the last two weeks, the 45th President has enjoyed maybe the best stretch of his entire political career.  Between Biden’s meltdown to the Supreme Court recognizing presidential immunity, the Trump Train has been propelled by a mountain of good news. Every reputable poll has President Trump leading in each of the six most important battleground states.  The New York Times, which has never been friendly or fair to President Trump, has him up between 1 and 5 points in each of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.  Winning all those states, in addition to the states he carried in 2020, would guarantee him his greatest electoral college victory ever.

But the momentum does not stop there.  A recent Fox News poll has President Trump tied with Biden in Virginia.  Polls by both Emerson College and McLaughlin & Associates have President Trump outright leading in the state of Minnesota, which no Republican has carried since Richard Nixon in 1972.  Perhaps most remarkably of all, a poll by co/efficient has President Trump up by 1 point in the state of New Jersey! 

As the weeks progress, polling will better capture the fallout from Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, which should be even more to President Trump’s advantage.  Expect the numbers above to get only better for President Trump, who is well on his way to a landslide victory, if the election were today, based on these projections.  Even if current polling has somehow overcorrected or biased in favor of President Trump (it would be a first!), he would only need to pick off one of the midwestern battleground states to defeat Biden in November.  Or he can hold onto his leads in North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada – and secure either a New Hampshire or Maine, which would be enough for victory.  

Although Trump supporters know more than anyone — given how scandalously off they were in 2016 — not to obsess over the polls, President Trump’s fortunes go beyond the positive news from pollsters.  First, he is enjoying great enthusiasm on the ground.  In May, he hosted over 100,000 people in Wildwood, New Jersey, smashing every record for the largest political rally of any kind in state history.  He has enjoyed similarly huge turnouts north, south, east, and west, from Las Vegas to Miami to Virginia and Milwaukee, which is playing host to this year’s RNC.  

It is no secret that President Trump’s base is enthusiastic like never before.  In sharp contrast with Biden, whose “supporters” are defecting to the Trump Train or other candidates in droves, the 45th President’s base has been galvanized by the lawfare that has made a martyr of President Trump, the ultimate victim of our weaponized justice system.  What is more, they are tired of being ransacked by inflation of a scale that surpasses anything most Americans have experienced in their lifetimes.  The message of closed borders and mass deportations resonates with all Americans, who so desperately want a return to the rule of law and a focus on American interests, rather than prioritizing those of another foreign nation or people. 

Hundreds of millions are fed up with radical woke insanity.  They do not want to see men competing in women’s sports or changing in their daughters’ locker rooms.  They find equally appalling the idea of having abortions at eight or nine months, or even post-birth, as many mainstream Democrats have advocated for.  They are fed up with DEI policies which prioritize skin color, gender, and sexual orientation over merit and ability.  They do not want to be saddled by crippling regulations, made in the name of “climate change,” which prevents us from tapping into our vast natural resources, thereby creating a greater dependency on competitors like Russia and Iran for their oil.  

All these policies have the effect of making us poorer and more vulnerable to foreign adversaries.  At the same time, our economy has basically entered a recession, defined by little to no growth, lingering inflation, fake jobs, and a hollowing out of industry.  On top of it all, migrants from across the world have invaded our borders by the tens of millions.  Almost all of them are low-skilled, adding zero cultural or economic enrichment.  Many belong to gangs, deal in drugs, traffic children, and have committed some of the most barbaric crimes conceivable. 

These policies, taken collectively, spell doom for America – and will bring about our demise as a nation if allowed to go on with this suicidal trajectory another four years.  It is thus the survival impulse among the populace that is ultimately responsible for the seismic shift in the polls, support, and yearning to see President Trump back in the Oval Office – and Biden’s crime family kicked to the curb.

Biden’s implosion on the debate stage, before a national television audience, was legendary.  He was so bad that he got networks like CNN and MSNBC to immediately turn on him and demand that he be replaced.  The New York Times, which similarly called for Biden’s replacement, for the first time in living memory might now be more antagonistic to Biden over Trump.  The effect of this has been to further mobilize President Trump’s base, and demoralize many would-be Democratic voters, who will instead opt for a third-party candidate like Robert Kenney or check out of the election altogether. 

Also, the timing of Biden’s meltdown could not have been any better for President Trump; we now have less than four months to go until November.  If the Democrats want to replace Biden this late in the game, even with an ostensibly easy switch like Kamala Harris, they are going to encounter a litany of logistical and constitutional obstacles that will further complicate matters given the short timeline they are forced to work with.  

Biden is also a stubborn old dog. Further, he is being aided by a power-hungry Lady MacBeth of a wife in “Dr.” Jill. He is highly recalcitrant to the prospect of stepping down and surrendering power.  In that regard, he is following the tradition of many other geriatric Democrats who have gone before him in recent years – from Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who held onto that court seat until the bitter end, to Diane Feinstein, who famously voted in the Senate during the day, only to kerplop later that evening.  

As people age, they tend to get more stubborn.  Combine stubbornness with arrogance as well as a pathology for power, and, well, you get a deadly combination – the paradigmatic example of which is this Biden melodrama playing out in real-time. 

All of that, of course, is not to say that President Trump – or the American people, should rest on our laurels.  We cannot claim victory prematurely.  We should continue our relentless push forward, operating as if we are ten points behind in the polls.  We need to double and triple down with our ground game in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, especially; registering voters, deploying lawyers and poll watchers, educating vote counters, and harvesting ballots, all to ensure an orderly electoral process and secure President Trump’s victory – which, based on the current rules, goes on for weeks, if not months, prior to Election Day itself. 

Nevertheless, Team Trump is in a formidable position: the best for President Trump, yet, at this stage in each of his three races.  That is reason to be cautiously optimistic. That is also reason to be hopeful that God has not abandoned the American people, or the great cause of freedom this nation epitomizes.  

Paul Ingrassia is a Constitutional Scholar; Communications Director of the NCLU; a two-time Claremont Fellow, and is on the Board of Advisors of the New York Young Republican Club and the Italian American Civil Rights LeagueHe writes a widely read Substack that is regularly posted on Truth Social by President Trump. Follow him on X @PaulIngrassiaSubstackTruth SocialInstagram, and Rumble.

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Joe
Joe
4 days ago

I don’t want to be a pessimist, but DJT was in the same position in February 2020 before the Chinese virus came into full swing, and the liberals didn’t let a good crisis go to waste. Four months is plenty of time for the liberals to attempt another election steal. Should Trump win the election, and he should if it’s fair and transparent, the evil empire has six months before Inauguration Day to send our country into even greater turmoil. The damage may be irreparable. Pray for a spiritual revival that will bring God’s favor to our nation!!!!

Dan W.
Dan W.
5 days ago

Two years ago it was the “Red Wave”. Today’s version of the red wave is “Formidable”.

Reality is that the margin was razor thin before the debate and remains razor thin today.

Very few people are changing their votes because of the debate. If we don’t crank up our enthusiasm now and our turnout in November, we are not going to sweep the House, Senate and the White House.

Kim
Kim
5 days ago

There is no doubt that President Trump is cognitively capable of holding the presidential office, while Joe Biden shows no such capability. I’ll even offer that Trump has sharpened his game, become more “presidential”, and is aware of current domestic and global situations that call for mental dexterity and perhaps a split-second response to an emergency.

If Trump loses in November, something will have gone seriously wrong in the elections process…namely fraud on such a massive scale that I believe America will revolt. We deserve and need–in these perilous times–someone much better than Joe, Jill, and Kamala. Enough of the woke foolishness, a mismanaged economy, filthy and dangerous cities, political corruption, the unguarded borders, a biased judicial system, and the systemic weakness projected to other nations. Let’s get back to the important issues that made this the most successful of the free nations.

Biden is in such a poor position politically, physically, and mentally that I have to wonder about those who continue to support him. Maybe they need a psychological evaluation.

GMA
GMA
4 days ago

People/Voters have to get smart..vote for Freedom not Communism.

Mark
Mark
3 days ago

Sadly, even with the Trump Train holding enormous rallies across the country, flipping Blue states Red, receiving millions in donations, and appearing to be unbeatable, patriots MUST UNDERSTAND THIS – IF Trump’s ENTIRE team, from attorneys to volunteers, the RNC, CPAC organizers, and every Republican and Conservative in the Senate and House (just to name a few groups) do NOT STOP THE MASSIVE CHEATING THAT IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE by the damn ILLEGALS, who are already voting AND planning on voting, which was all made possible by the America-hating, Socialist/Commie, lying and MEGA CORRUPT DAMN-O-CRAPS, Donald Trump will NOT WIN.
The Commies in Wisconsin and many other states have once again approved ballot boxes (boxes just waiting to be cram-stuffed with illegal’s ballots, homeless and dead people’s ballots, voters who are registered in multiple states casting multiple ballots, pre-printed ballots already filled out and marked ‘Democrat’). And so many other ways these evil, law-breaking scum will cheat this time around, making damn certain that Trump can’t win.
So Trump’s people better have massive, well trained armies in every state, every city, every town, every polling place, and at every ballot box location CLOSELY monitoring (and video taped if necessary) to prevent ballot harvesting, ballot box stuffing, and to verify voter registration rolls at every polling locations so as to catch these scumbags in the acts of treason.
And if you’re assigned to a polling place, pack your lunch and or dinner so you don’t have to leave to eat. Because as soon as you leave, you’ll get locked out so you can’t return. And the police (if they’re spineless like they were in 2020) won’t help you get back in. And then the cheating begins. Trump ballots shredded and Biden ballots counted. That’s what many of these Damn-o-crap, Satan-worshiping workers in various polling places across the country did in 2020. And they will do this and so much more this time around to keep the Socialist/Commies in power. .

Susan Kathy Houser
Susan Kathy Houser
4 days ago

I can assure you that God did not abandon America. We abandoned HIM!

Veteran John Victorine
Veteran John Victorine
4 days ago

Get (Hope—“NOT)”—Dope !!!!!!! }}} !!! ????????????
Fact:
They will {Cheat}} !
BUT:
They can *only** Cheat—SO Much !

Leslie
Leslie
4 days ago

No polls will convince me that Trump will have a landslide. Too many people do not like him, plus his conviction (regardless of sham trial). It is absolutely critical that he pick a VP that can and will be able to take over on Day one, that is the only way to win the Indpendent/non-Joe Biden fans over. It is a MISTAKE to put out articles like this this far in advance. When Trump won in 2016, and had a Republican congress, they still barely got anything done. I remember this, as do plenty others. You cannot assume that if people do not want Biden, they’ll vote Trump, because they probably won’t. People will leave a blank. If some conservative media outlets don’t start getting the truth out about just how far the swamp has gone to get rid of Trump, he will not win. And if he doesn’t, guess who does.

michaelR
michaelR
4 days ago

The obvious difference the debate showed for Biden was,…. like he does at all his press conferences, couldn’t turn around and walk away after 5 minutes. He’s mind is shot,…..mentally had it. He’s NOT running the country and hasn’t been since day one.

SCbubba
SCbubba
4 days ago

“…..a litany of logistical and constitutional obstacles” may indeed exist but won’t deter determined DemocRATS, liberals, “progressives”, “the woke” and their ilk, aided and abetted by a complicit MSM and a gullible electorate. They have no regard for customs, rules, laws, or our Constitution and actively work to illegally circumvent or outright ignore them to further their sordid agenda. God, please deliver us!

anna hubert
anna hubert
4 days ago

There are people who will vote for Biden again Why I do not know Quite few I know are educated and descendants of immigrants They are aware of what the parents and grandparents escaped from But being born here can’t imagine it possible They are woke and they are democrats Obtuse is to put it mildly They have no clue of the potency of the fire they are playing with and there is no way to talk some sense into them and convince them that once on the shining path there is no way back

Lisa
Lisa
2 days ago

I agree with Joe. There was no way Biden should have or did win in 2020. If the dems put half as much effort into serving the people as they do to fraud and cheating we might be ok. Don’t count out the greatest cheaters when it come to election integrity.

Sean Rickman
Sean Rickman
3 days ago

Let’s just hope that President Trump can beat the leftists.If their cheating is as good as it was in twenty-twenty and the Republicans are that naive and don’t get their doo-doo together and the anti patriot party wins,AMERICA will be non existent.The leftists are intent on giving AMERICA away.

Jackie
Jackie
4 days ago

A very well written article. These truths we find self evident.We must stay the course any never take God’s faith in us for granite.Stay strong, Vote, Speak out and never believe anything that the lying Totalitarian Communist Democrat Party Comrade’s say.God Bless America!!Trump 2024…

Secret Service agents rush Donald Trump off the stage.(AP: Evan Vucci)
President Joe Biden greets President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping, Wednesday, November 15, 2023, at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, California.(Official White House Photo by Carlos Fyfe)
President Joe Biden speaks on the phone with Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick to discuss his approval of a FEMA disaster declaration in response to the impacts of Hurricane Beryl, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in the Oval Office of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

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