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Delusions of Victory – 2024 Presidential Election

Posted on Wednesday, May 3, 2023
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by Barry Casselman
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103 Comments
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AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

Election

Establishment wisdom has already decided the 2024 presidential election. This liberal establishment conclusion is that Joe Biden will be the Democrat nominee, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee, and in that contest, Mr. Biden will defeat Mr. Trump. That’s it. All done.

In reality, with 18 months before Election Day, none of that is certain.

The Democrat establishment, with its media friends in tow, has decided that a frail and aging first-term president must be renominated despite historically low voter support, and that his even more unpopular vice president should remain on the ticket.

So far, not one of the potential serious Democrat challengers has dared enter the nomination contest. Two less-than-credible challengers have announced they are running: Robert Kennedy, Jr. and Marianne Williamson. Even in the earliest polls, Mr. Biden only leads his primary opponents 60%-20%, with 20% undecided.

The party establishment has also rearranged the traditional primary season calendar so that it heavily favors the Biden-Harris ticket. New Hampshire, the traditional first primary state, was told it had to come later, but it is refusing to play ball, and is saying it will stage its primary first anyway. Mr. Biden, for now, would not even be on the ballot in New Hampshire, although a write-in campaign for him would likely take place. New Hampshire Democrat voters are not happy.

Iowa is traditionally the first caucus state. The Democrat Party establishment has cancelled this early caucus, and made South Carolina, a Biden-friendly state, the first nomination event of its 2024 campaign. If somehow Mr. Biden falters, some prominent Democrats could enter the race. Newt Gingrich suggests that might include Michelle Obama (who has previously declared she is not interested in running for president).

Meanwhile, the Republicans will stick to tradition, contesting both an Iowa caucus and a New Hampshire primary before the South Carolina primary.

As matters stand now, Mr. Biden will almost certainly refuse to debate his primary challengers, Kennedy, Jr. and Williamson, while the numerous Republican candidates will debate frequently on national TV over several months.

The notion that the Democrat electorate is being openly defied and disrespected by its own party leadership — and will thus consequently passively go along with the establishment scenario — is likely a delusion. As first-term Democrat incumbents, Lyndon Johnson in 1968 and Jimmy Carter in 1980 (and Republican first-term incumbent George H.W. Bush in 1992) learned, unhappy primary voters can produce unpleasant surprises in the nomination season, and prevent their re-election. Johnson withdrew after Eugene McCarthy’s showing in New Hampshire; Carter beat Ted Kennedy and Bush beat Pat Buchanan for the nominations, but each lost their re-election in November.

The Democrat establishment thus has good reason to suppress a serious challenge to Mr. Biden, but the president’s age and physical condition, coupled with the negatives of continued inflation, a volatile declining stock market, the southern border crisis, rising urban crime and unrest, the implosion of public education, rising taxes and budget deficits, and other woes, domestic and International, make a smooth and uneventful primary season to be likely wishful thinking.

On the Republican side, it is obviously premature to declare a winner. Donald Trump’s likely most serious challenger, Ron DeSantis, has not even declared his candidacy yet, nor have several other credible Republicans. Mr. Trump’s legal problems, current and future, have not been resolved. Mr. Trump has a big lead in current polls, but polls are not primary vote results. While Mr. DeSantis trails Mr. Trump in current GOP polls, some general election polls show Mr. DeSantis doing better against Mr. Biden or any other Democrat nominee than Mr. Trump does.

It might yet be Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump next November, but such an outcome will almost certainly provoke some third-party candidates who could throw any general election arithmetic into disarray as was the case in 1968, 1992, and 2000.

With each party almost certain to win about 225 electoral votes in November, the winner of the decisive remaining electoral votes in 2024 is far from certain, no matter who the major party nominees are next year.

It’s not done yet.

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legally present
legally present
1 year ago

Well any Democrat applicants should do a debate without Joey there, what will they say about that???

anna hubert
anna hubert
1 year ago

The vote will not matter if it is already decided who will “win”

Morbious
Morbious
1 year ago

The dem electorate is much farther left and way more robotic than in 92 , let alone 80 and 68. Theres not the slightest reason to believe they wont form up like sardines to vote for sniffy. They would vote for a cardboard cutout if it promised unlimited abortion. All that aside, the voting procedures in swing states must be fixed prior to 24. If not, even a Lincoln on the R ticket wont stand a chance. We can hope for a miracle, such as a strong dem third party showing by rfk jr, but hope isnt a game plan. Btw, thats how Lincoln was elected. The dem ticket was split.

Deb
Deb
1 year ago

I think Kennedy has a chance because people are tired of Biden because he either wasn’t radical enough or because he was too radical and he had dementia now.
Kennedy may not win the dem party vote but he certainly will take votes away from Biden. That works

James Thompson
James Thompson
1 year ago

Bidumd will win ,the Dems will cheat.

Spitfire1940
Spitfire1940
1 year ago

There is a very good reason Democrats have a JACK*SS as their national symbol!

Paul S.
Paul S.
1 year ago

It’s not even something to debate until election integrity has been restored. For the last 2 election cycles, many of the people’s choices were denied victory by the corrupt uni-party establishment.

Rik
Rik
1 year ago

What’s changed? . . . I don’t see where Republicans “fixed” why they lost the last election? . . . President Trump’s policies were very successful and every President with a successful first term usually gets easily reelected! Biden is as popular as jock itch and the ONLY way he could have won was by cheating and so it was! So I expect that the WORST PRESIDENT EVER WILL EASILY BE REELECTED! . . . Wanna bet?

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
1 year ago

Both RNC DNC Estd seek delusions

Rick
Rick
1 year ago

To my Republican friends: If Trump wins the Republican nomination the Democrats win. NO one
repels democrats and independents like our ego driven 45 President. At present the dems have
a weak group of potential candidates while Republicans have a choice of many competent contenders. Trump is repulsive to many Independents and moderate Democrats who want change and would vote for many of the other Republican candidates. Even if he pulls off a win he enters office as a lame duck President who will only be in office for four years, and then the country then has to go through another Presidential election. Now the Dems have had time to find more credible candidates and new ways to cheat ( Yes they are always ahead of Republicans in this area).
As a Republican I think we need to elect a candidate; who can attract voters of all parties; who will
stress that to heal and solve the countries problems it will take a congress and senate working with
the president to realize goals and years to achieve them and then run for and win a second term.
If Trump was a true patriot he would realize this and bow out of the race. BUT .. Trump won’t do this because his EGO far out ways his patriotism. And YES Donnie you were a draft dodger for someone with bad bone spurs on your heals you can sure stand on your feet for long periods while
you’re bloviating about how great you are.
FYI I’m 74, Viet Nam vet, life long Republican and supported and voted for Trump In both elections. I’ve taken a hard look back and realized he’s great at self promotion and that many
of his problems have been of his own making. I’d like to write more detailed explanations but this isn’t the form.

David Millikan
David Millikan
1 year ago

The clock is ticking. Will Americans WAKE UP and FIGHT for OUR country or will they go Mooo like cattle and be enslaved by the Socialist, Communist, and Fascist democrats?
The choice is not hard at all. Either you are for FREEDOM or you are for Socialist, Communist, and Fascism?
Did ALL of OUR relatives and friends who fought and paid the ultimate price for OUR FREEDOMS die in vain?
Or will you HONOR them?
I for one will HONOR them by FIGHTING for OUR FREEDOMS.
I will NEVER bow down to Socialist, Communism, and Fascism because I am an AMERICAN.
And I am a firm believer in FREEDOM.

Steve
Steve
1 year ago

Trump has shown what he can do as President. What was not to like. If you don’t like his personality – remember, it takes a tough person to deal with the SWAMP.

Sue
Sue
1 year ago

Got God? Got integrity? Got courage? Got values? Be strong and courageous. Stand firm in your commitment to family. Git freedom?

Vietvet 6768
Vietvet 6768
1 year ago

This is going to be very interesting

Marc Ziegler
Marc Ziegler
1 year ago

Turmp will win both primary and national elections, hands down. Period! If that doesn’t happen, either by election interference or outright steal, the country will be over and corrupted. Bye Bye America, Bye Bye Freedom! Hello Fascism, Marxism, and Socialism. The world will never be the same.

Dave W
Dave W
1 year ago

Is there anything more hilarious than reading about Trump as a presidential candidate at a site called the Association of Mature American Citizens?

GTPatriot
GTPatriot
1 year ago

What a foolish commentary. I must be a fool to be among them. Biden is in his last
months of mental presence. He is already at 50% of full ability. Based on what ?
My opinion which is all that counts. Then you get Kamala who cannot function.
The fear of Donald Trump has paralysed the left. Therein, that single fact cements
Trump among his considerable followers. If the left had the good sense to never
discuss Trump he would be forgotten but the left, placing mouth over reason, will
keep the spotlight on Trump. That defines the Trump power. The media cannot
cover “news” ( who the hell knows what that is) as long as Trump is a candidate.
CNN allowed itself to be ruined by Trump yet it still, every day, has Trump addiction

GTPatriot
GTPatriot
1 year ago

The real problem, and we all know it, is that the democrats have no viable candidates.
How can a major party have no one who wants to run for the highest office.
I propose two possibilites: 1. there is no talent 2. those with talent know they are
part of a loser

Joseph
Joseph
1 year ago

When they start saying again, “Ladies and Gentlemen” at online work, then I will return, but not until then! Florida is a common sense conservative state where most la-06 people have brains!
Open The Link——➤ apprichs.com

Joel
Joel
1 year ago

It’s interesting to read through the comments, some of which I agree with, some I don’t and see how divided we are about who leads this country. The differences between this administration and the last are incredibly obvious. Personally I want Trumps America back. Those of you who see him negatively need to understand how much the entrenched in our government fought him on every turn. Read up if you are curious, there are unelected, dare I say swamp members who only Trump was and is willing to fight. I see a positive future with him both foreign and domestically. Just think how many Ukrainians would be alive today if we would have had true strong leadership when it mattered.

Andrew P
Andrew P
1 year ago

I expect that Kamala Harris will be the Dem candidate, and the incumbent president, by the time of the 2024 election. She can beat any Republican in a 2-man race over the abortion issue alone, but it is not likely to be a 2-man race. If Trump is the GOP nominee, Manchin runs 3rd party. If Manchin runs, he will run to win and not just to be a spoiler. That means he must plan to win a contingent election in the House in 2025, by a procedure that hasn’t been done for 200 years. That means Manchin must win enough states to deny the others 270 EV, and he must gain critical support in key House seats in states with closely divided delegations.

DAVID
DAVID
1 year ago

Whoever votes for Joe Biden next election loves high inflation, high gas prices, open borders, a high crime rate, perversion of our country and is pro China and believes in corruption and I guess just hates America.

Mary Ann
Mary Ann
1 year ago

I’m not political but I am trying to be socially responsible. Marianne Williamson is running for president and has intrigued me. We have to use our power to create change. She could bring real change but Washington is scared of her. She would disrupt the system of corruption they have all learned to just live with. This is an enormous endeavor but nothing in life this momentous was going to be easy. She needs the support of the people because unlike the career politicians she is not backed by the machine. She is not beholden to them as well. If we want change we have to speak up, stand up, and support change. They say it is impossible to squash your will. Nothing is impossible if we rise up and take them on. We out number them and together we have the power.

Jeffrey Dunaway
Jeffrey Dunaway
1 year ago

I voted for Donald Trump twice. He did amazing good for our country. But the press and the swamp did the dirty work on him. I believe the independent voters will not support him enough. That will hand the country over to the left. So sad…

CB
CB
1 year ago

If little hitler gets in again there will be civil war. But then again maybe that is what we need!

Andy Stull
Andy Stull
1 year ago

Trump should pick DeSantis as VP because the democrats will likely assassinate Trump, but they wouldn’t like to have DeSantis take over.

Jess
Jess
1 year ago

Remember the Obama’s?
A creditable source, Bill O’Reily, recently opined, that Mechelle, could announce one day before the DNC convention in Chicago, that she wants to run for the Presidency in 2024. She would automatically win the nomination, per Mr. O’Reily.
It’s just conjecture for now, but if this scenario should play out, The Republic is in very dire straits. You know very well she would pick up, where Old Joe left off!That’s the downside for the Republican Party and the Country.
The upside is that several Democratic Senators are up for reelection in 2024. It’s within the realm of possibility Republicans can keep the House and win the Senate too! If your sick and tired of the Marxist movement which is now plaguing us, vote to replace the incumbent Democrat where ever you live. If not get use to eating bananas!!

John Z
John Z
1 year ago

The GOP national corporate has let the little people take a backseat to special interests and their money a long with Rino’s that are the go a long get a long for the radical leftists. It’s a sad reality when GOP volunteers aka the little people work very hard to preserve of Constitutional Republic. The corporate level sell us out by being ignorant of the proven leftist narrative to only obtain power so they can destroy America as we pro-Americans watch them do so without a united voice to preserve it .

Paul
Paul
1 year ago

Here we go again with the incompetent republicans chasing issues that are non- winners for them. Abortion and gay stuff. Lets get by these non important issues. Instead, form a monthy process where the RNC publishes and talks about how the left (democrats) use these topics to enslave black Americans. Abortions by blacks are 5 times greater than whites. Why? the left must keep the number of black Americans in check. if this was happening in any other country, we would call it genicide! The percentage of gay people in the US is about 4 percent. Yet Republicans spend a huge percentage of their time trying to leveage this issue. We all know whoever gets an abortion or lives a gay life style, will have to answer to the great one. Perhaps the dead church leaders of America could lead on discussing what will be the results for after life. Now to the debt limit. We all know the Repubicans will come out of this with egg on their faces. Instead, pass the budget Mr. Biden wants and spend a great amount of time explaining how it affects us. Do this montly and put the blame directly on rat democrats. In summary, I find it very difficult to support Republicans sense it is just more of the same B/S chasing stupid themes for the distractions the Demos give the terrible Republican leaders.

Gary Dornier
Gary Dornier
1 year ago

They have this confidence, becasue they were completely successful in stealing the 2020 election, and are sure that they can and will steal the 2024 election. In 2016, 133 million votes were cast, when, Donald Trump won the election. In 2020, Donald Trump, received 11 million more votes than in 2016, which should have assured him a landslide victory; But, in this election over 158 million votes were cast. No one batted and eye, as the tally was not only accepted, but acclaimed to be the most secure election in history. 2020 being a census year, indicated that the U.S. population, ( and the voting population ) had not changed much in 10 years. Another thing that has not changed much?? The laws governing the way we vote, since the 2020 election.

Melinda
Melinda
1 year ago

Maybe RFK Jr. will drain enough votes away from Joe. But, but, doncha know, old Joe has to finish the job! (wink, wink)

Melinda
Melinda
1 year ago

Trump’s naysayers may have a point, but if he is the nominee I will vote for him just for the success of his policies.

Cole
Cole
1 year ago

Right now it seem as though the Democrats are not willing to let anyone run against or debate Joe. Since Joe is not running things, actually we do not know for sure who is in charge, they would be willing to keep it that way. The media, Big Tech conspired to throw an election and will be willing to do it again, I have really lost faith in our government which I feel has become the enemy or the people. They are telling us what we can buy, what we can’t say or think, changing history and have turned our children away from education and into indoctrination, and completely opened our borders, while permitting the criminal element and mentally ill to run free. Sadly, I feel if we are not there we are very close to the end of the United States of America.

tempus
tempus
1 year ago

What is certain about the 2024 presidential election is that the Democratic party bosses in the large cities of the swing States will decide who will be the next president.

Jerry
Jerry
1 year ago

Any American who loves this country and wants to see it survive better vote for Trump. He did good for this country before and he can do it again. We just need to have a free and fair election this time.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
1 year ago

Nevada’s Dem run legislature shot down voter ID and passed a “popular vote” bill affecting the electoral so I’ve no doubt they won’t ALLOW anyone but Biden to win. Oh I’ll still vote mind you but I’m not very enthusiastic about the outcome!

Gloria
Gloria
1 year ago

I’m in agreement with Mike Lindell – if every voting precinct would remove the damnable Dominion machines it would be 80% better, require voter ID and citizenship to vote would be another jump in the right direction. But with Lucifer and his minions in control right now —doesn’t look good

Sam
Sam
1 year ago

Any chance at ALL we can have an election (LOL) without Biden or Trump at the top?!

Pat R
Pat R
1 year ago

Well Joe has been so easy to manipulate, of course the DNC want him in there again. Can’t help but wonder how much financial backing the Dem party gets from Soros. They certainly seem to be advocating the same thing – the destruction of the USA as a Free, Sovereign, Independent nation.

Hugh Duane Chinn
Hugh Duane Chinn
1 year ago

In truth, it IS ‘done yet’. Since ZERO has been done to prevent vote fraud nationwide the fix is in for Bozo Joe in 2024. Bank on it.

LILLIE PRICE
LILLIE PRICE
1 year ago

I made the same comment ” if it is a Trump vs Biden” race Biden is a sure winner. The Dems will see to it that he wins by hook or crook (more likely crook like the last time). Sadly, the United States no longer has fair legal elections; too many outsiders have decided to destroy us, and the democrats sadly are willing to play in their hands. I cannot understand why they, the democrats, think a socialist country is better than the free country that they (we) all grew up in. Surely, they understand that they will not be the supreme beings when it is all over! That they are just being used as ponds to get what the millionaires want at which time they, the users, will take over. Our only hope is God; the one Person who has protected us and saved us throughout our many years of existence. I am asking everyone to get on their knees and ask Him for protection from this horrible possibility and to help lead us in the ways He wants us to go. He is our only Hope!!!

Republicans versus Democrats, signs with two types of skies showing the opposite
kamala harris
trump flag
President Joe Biden departs after speaking at the NAACP Convention, Tuesday, July 16, 2024, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

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