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An Update On President Trump’s Early Voting Progress In Pennsylvania

Posted on Monday, September 30, 2024
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by Paul Ingrassia
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We are now within the 40-day window until Election Day – and all eyes are on the Keystone state.  Over the next couple of weeks, both President Trump and Senator JD Vance have multiple rallies scheduled in Pennsylvania, including one in Butler County scheduled for October 5th. There the President will make his much-anticipated return to the town in which he nearly lost his life three and a half months ago.  The time between the fated Butler rally in July and the President’s return trip is 84 days, more than twice the period of time left until November 5th

So the clock is really ticking.

As of today, to the extent mainstream polling at all can be trusted (not much) the President would garner over 270 electoral college votes, and hence, win the presidency.  This of course will all depend on the President keeping a safe lead ahead of Kamala Harris in each one of the critical “sunbelt” battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina – and either winning Nevada, where he is currently ahead, and Nebraska’s third congressional district, where polls suggest he lags, or taking Pennsylvania, a “toss-up” rapidly trending rightward.

Of course, there are multiple ways to 270 (and beyond) for President Trump, which includes crisscrossing through Wisconsin and Michigan, both key to his 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton – or picking off a longshot state like Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, or potentially New Jersey or New York, all states that have been largely written off by pollsters and thus have scant data, but could nevertheless be ripe territory for an upset.

All that said, however, given the lack of polling in those other states, we are reduced to mere speculation.  And speculation, at this late stage, deals with far too many unknown unknowns to pin down a winning strategy – at least from the standpoint of political forecasting, especially with this little time left.

Granted, forty days in politics is tantamount to many lifetimes.  But, as it stands, Pennsylvania has already begun issuing applications for mail-in ballots, and at least nine of sixty-seven counties statewide have even commenced early voting – and a few of those counties, including Philadelphia, have even opened the doors to early, in-person voting.

Accordingly, we have a ton of data already to crunch about Republican performance and can compare these data sets with 2020’s final results to determine whether Donald Trump can expect to see, at this still early date, positive trends in his favor. 

A few numbers already stand out: voter registration efforts by on-the-ground grassroots activists, like Scott Presler, and organizations, including the RNC and TPUSA, have made inroads in chipping away at that once formidable lead the Democratic Party commanded not too long ago in the Keystone state.

Based on official data reported by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, back in 2020 registered Democrats outpaced registered Republicans 4,228,888 (46.52%) to 3,543,070 (38.97%), with another 1,319,004 (14.51%) of voters remaining unaffiliated.  Today, so far, the Democratic advantage has been cut to 3,933,706 (44.02%) against 3,595,310 (40.23%) for Republicans – a 3.76% reduction (with ‘other’ voters tallying 1,408,063, or 15.76%, of the remaining registered voters).  Those trends obviously bode well for President Trump, who “lost” the Keystone State to Biden in 2020 by just 1.2% points (in other words, the current number passes the “too big to rig” test) and won the state by 0.7% against Hillary Clinton four years earlier.

National polling currently gives Kamala Harris a stingy 0.8% edge in Pennsylvania, though the presumption that that number is artificially boosted by older polling rests on solid footing. The latter polls gave the vice president a gratuitous boost based on false and debunked media narratives concerning Kamala’s debate performance. More recently, reputable polling either has President Trump tied with Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania or even gives him a slight lead – a phenomenon that is slowly but surely acclimating to the on-the-ground truism that Pennsylvania is, incontrovertibly, Trump Country. 

For comparison, as of this date – approximately forty days out from election day – Biden enjoyed a 4.7% overall polling advantage over President Trump in 2020, while Hillary Clinton benefited from a 2.4% lead at this stage in 2016.  Indeed, this should be noted with the caveat that cross-election comparisons are an imprecise science since pollsters tweak their methodologies year-to-year.  In addition, one is also dealing with different pollsters election year over election year, meaning an entirely separate set of data and calculations, resulting in an ersatz cross-reference. 

The other overriding factor in place that helps account for why many polls have the two candidates tied in Pennsylvania, rather than giving the President the outright lead he actually has is due to inherent bias. Each year the polls – particularly the ones self-selected by legacy outlets like the New York Times and CNN – are driven by the same subversive motive: to boost the Democratic candidate, whoever that might be, against the perennial bogeyman in Donald Trump.  Mainstream pollsters are generally deemed “reputable” insofar as they do not deviate too far from preferred, if unspoken, expectations by their legacy media handlers.  Ergo, the current scenario in which at least four polls, concomitantly afraid to anoint Trump with the lead he truly has, each instead indicating the race in Pennsylvania is “tied.”  More on that in a moment.

Betting markets, like Polymarket, have reflected broader momentum trending in the 45th President’s favor.  Recently, the popular prediction platform gave the President a slight lead in tossup battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Nevada, which has led to him tightening his overall prospects of winning the electoral vote, according to these platforms, considerably in the past week.  In summary, this confirms two major takeaways: 1) the Keystone State is the ‘key’ battleground; and 2) this race is President Trump’s to lose: he has the upper hand and should run with it.

Having said that, to declare victory this early on would of course be foolish.  As Steve Bannon said in a recent op-ed, we must put “everything we have into these final weeks.”  Republicans – through the relentless work of many grassroots activists and groups – have gone a long way towards correcting long standing disparities in Pennsylvania, but in absolute numbers they remain behind (less encouraging is the fact that as of this date, Republican ballot absentee requests are at 26.45%, up by just 1.37% from 2020).  The Democratic machine there, as anywhere else, spearheaded by Kamala henchman Josh Shapiro, is robust and will resort to any means to try to cheat the system once again.

And, as alluded to above, in politics public perception matters just as much (if not more so) than the facts themselves.  This proved true four years ago when judges and courts across the nation decided to not take up cases of election fraud, despite the overwhelming evidence that existed, citing hackneyed excuses like “a lack of standing” to circumvent the controversial issue.  This was driven by legacy media narratives that ran wild with the conspiracy theory that Donald Trump was plotting to “overturn” (a word neither he nor anyone close to him ever used) the legitimate results of the 2020 presidential election.  Rather than report on the accurate claim that he – and those like Jeff Clark and John Eastman who faithfully carried out their duties – was merely exercising his Article II constitutional prerogative, as commander-in-chief, to take care that the election laws were being conducted properly and legitimately.  These solemn duties are ultimately grounded in the higher principle that credible elections are essential to democratic governance. 

To achieve credibility, the public must have the belief that their elections have not been corrupted by fraud.  Without confidence in the electoral process, the government, rightly or wrongly, will be ensnared by the perception of illegitimacy – if the belief persists long enough and becomes widespread throughout the body politic, as has occurred under the Biden-Harris administration, it starts corroding the president’s credibility like a cancer where governance then becomes impossible.  At which point, the president is reduced to two options: either step down and return political power to the people, where it belongs, by ensuring a free and fair electoral process, or spurn the people entirely and rule as a tyrant.  It is a regrettable though irrefutable fact that Biden (and now Harris) has chosen the latter option.

Finally, in closing, I would like to repost an excerpt from a piece I released last week, detailing Pennsylvania’s outsized importance this year and why I believe the Keystone is all-important to securing President Trump’s path back to the White House:

A Word On Pennsylvania…

Which brings me again to Pennsylvania, the aptly nicknamed Keystone State, which will prove “key” to determining the outcome of this year’s race.  The subject of Pennsylvania and its role in this year’s election is a Herculean one, one deserving of an entire piece all of its own.   Its importance lies in three major reasons: 1) Pennsylvania boasts the largest number of electoral votes of the seven deemed “critical” battleground states this year at 19; 2) of the three ‘blue wall’ states that handed Donald Trump the presidency in 2016, it has consistently trended more in his favor by national polling than either Michigan or Wisconsin (which lag only slightly behind) — being more demographically favorable, with large swaths of older, blue collar white voters — than the national average; and 3) of any state in the union, Philadelphia is arguably “ground zero” for voter fraud, and the most corrupt election precinct in the country, a trend that goes back decades.

To put things into context, the President can afford to lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona – a whopping 36 electoral votes – and still win the election if he secures the Keystone State (assuming that he holds Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada, three sunbelt states that he has constantly lead all this year and still does today).  By contrast, if the President loses all three of the key rustbelt battlegrounds – he would have to win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and pick off a state like Virginia (which should not be written off entirely, based on the strong electoral reforms Governor Youngkin enacted this year to help fortify election integrity there, coupled with recent polling that places Trump within the margin of error among Virginian voters).  In the latter scenario, he can still afford to lose Nevada, but the point that it would be more difficult to win the presidency without Pennsylvania should be obvious.  (There is another scenario, where, hypothetically, President Trump can “lose” Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona – but would need to win Virginia, New Hampshire, Georgia, North Carolina, and hold onto Nevada, in addition to winning Nebraska’s at-large congressional district.  But that scenario deals in too many implausible hypotheticals – the prospect of losing every rust belt state plus Arizona, where he presently leads, and then picking off Virginia and New Hampshire, that it is not worth giving serious merit to.)

This hypothetical electoral college map, where President Trump can afford to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona, but retains Pennsylvania and the other three critical sunbelt battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada (alternatively, GA and NC can also conceivably turn blue and the Trump victory result would still hold if he adds AZ, but he would need all three of NC, GA, and AZ to lose NV), demonstrates the Keystone State’s outsized importance to 45’s prospects of becoming 47.

All of which is to reiterate the “key” in “Keystone.”  More specifically, the RNC must devote serious election integrity resources and legal “boots on the ground” in Pennsylvania.  Ideally, the playbook for Pennsylvania should be distinct from that used in other states.  Pennsylvania’s election rules are ostensibly far more ambiguous (i.e., more room for interpretation and potential sabotage by creative lawyering) than other states, which specify, for instance, greater specificity and detail in their procedures that must take place to process mail-in ballots, including the requirement of showing identification in the form of a driver’s license or passport, or matching one’s signature with a registrar of state voters.  So far, it is unclear just how election integrity lawyers will be able to verify a voter’s residence in Pennsylvania, especially if voter rolls are not publicly available.  Again, the predominant issue is illegal alien voters appearing on voter rolls – and the mistrust of the public in lawmakers like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, a Kamala Harris crony, who will doubtlessly do everything in his power to guard those state voter rolls from becoming disclosed, given his vested interest in Kamala’s election.

Beyond that, Pennsylvania lawyers should come equipped with rigorous knowledge in Pennsylvania election law, and deploy that knowledge, enforcing the law wherever needed, in the most important precincts in that all-important battleground – like Philadelphia County, neighboring Bucks County, or Delaware County – all of which house some of the biggest populations in the entire state, and thus are especially ripe for corruption and fraudulent activity, being under the thumb of Democratic officials, many of whom are Soros-aligned or DNC-funded.

An ideal strategy would be one that combines maximum knowledge of the law combined with a focus of being deployed on the ground, weeks in advance if need be, to thoroughly peruse the highest-risk precincts, and challenge fraudulent cases ahead of time.  Being on the ground will also allow lawyers and other RNC personnel, such as poll monitors, to better get a lay of the landscape, and anticipate possible fraud – or the ways in which fraud might be attempted this cycle – and design a proactive strategy to mitigate, or eliminate, fraud before it occurs.  It will also give RNC personnel a sense of what and who they are dealing with on the ground – providing opportunities, if all else fails, to shine the national media spotlight on bad-faith actors, before November 5th, using the light of transparency afforded by media outlets as a powerful antiseptic against fraud and unlawful conduct.  The goal has always been to create a deterrent effect for bad-faith actors who would otherwise like to manipulate and interfere with this election cycle in particular to block President Trump from ever entering the Oval Office again.

But in a situation where the fate of the country literally hangs in the balance, the highest possible stakes literally ever for a presidential election, a proactive approach that works to guard the vote in a critical battleground that has already begun early voting will be absolutely essential to protect the integrity — nay, sanctity — of America’s institutions – and save democracy from the demonic forces looking to bury it once and for all.

Paul Ingrassia is an Attorney; Communications Director of the NCLU; a two-time Claremont Fellow, and is on the Board of Advisors of the New York Young Republican Club and the Italian American Civil Rights LeagueHe writes a widely read Substack that is regularly posted on Truth Social by President Trump. Follow him on X @PaulIngrassiaSubstackTruth SocialInstagram, and Rumble.

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of AMAC or AMAC Action.

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Clark Kent
Clark Kent
12 days ago

GA, NC & AZ have turned to corner for Trump. That alone would give him 281 electoral votes. NV, WI, MI & VA are waiting in the wings.Expect the MSM to downplay this and smear Trump ruthlessly until NOV 5. Vote early & never give in!

Thinking
Thinking
11 days ago

We can Poll, look at the odds. Put circumstances in the mix and still not predict what happens on Nov 5th. October surprise like Iran attacking Israel. Hurricane Helene destroying 4 states so people can’t get to the polls. Harris not talking. Biden sleeping on the beach and MSM covering all this up. Outside forces will determine the election up to the 5th of November. And don’t forget the fraud factor. EVERYONE VOTE TRUMP/VANCE. Let’s vote for a truthful honest regime.

deerjerkydave
deerjerkydave
12 days ago

A new Trafalgar has Trump leading in PA by 3. Kamala is sliding in the polls and may never recover. It helps to trumpet this to our leftist friends who will be heavily demoralized.

michaelR
michaelR
11 days ago

It’s amazing that there are that many people that would EVEN CONSIDER voting for the same crat party that has allowed our border disaster as well as the rest of their ruinous policies. This is why Harris constantly sounds like she’s appealing to the equivalent of farm sheep.

Matt
Matt
12 days ago

Paul – Take a look at the even more recent polls by AtlasIntel. They have a Democrat lean (bias) and their latest polls are PA – Trump +3, Michigan – Trump +4, WI – Trump +2, GA – Trump +1, NC – Harris +3 (not so good), AZ -Trump +1. AtlasIntel is ranked 7th in Nate Silver’s pollster rankings.

Grace Larson
Grace Larson
11 days ago

The total devastation from the hurricane and Biden saying he sent all they have !!! Kamala detached from human suffering. Iran is stepping up their attack on Israel and China’s moving into areas closer to Taiwan and the Philippines. Plus they’ve sent military men to our land! I pray Trump wins. All the money they just sent to Ukraine should have gone to the South that’s so devastated.

CAT
CAT
11 days ago

People have to ask themselves, seriously and honestly, “Was I better off four years ago than I am today? Was our country more stable and less threatened four years ago?” By all means, please vote. You have no right to complain if you do not vote. If you choose to vote Democrat, be aware that you are continuing the Clinton/Obama team that has been propping up Biden and Harris for these past four years.

D G
D G
11 days ago

If this country has shifted enough to the left that sheeple elect DEI Harris even after she was forced upon them, and after listening to her “policies”‘ then I will know that America has lost its way, probably for good.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
11 days ago

I don’t get it; this should be a slam dunk considering few can positively answer the all important question of “ARE YOU BETTER OFF TODAY THENN4 YEARS AGO?”! What is wrong with these people? BTW: Don’t count on Nevada. I never know how this state will go until the results are final. In 2010, Sharron Angle led Harry Reid 50-46% when I went to bed… and woke up to Reid winning! Remember we were the state with ACORN in it!

Centurion
Centurion
11 days ago

Trump will win by a landslide, IF, AND ONLY IF, we can keep the voter fraud down. If it can be kept down then Trump wins. We need to man all the counting houses and live stream the count. So when the fraud does occur the proof of it is already out there.

Steven Alton
Steven Alton
11 days ago

The American people are tired of high prices, on food, gas, purchasing or renting a home and or Vehicle.And they are also tired of not having a police force that can protect us And the invasion of our southern border by illegals because they are taking our jobs and wanting to be given the same privileges that the American people who were born and raised here have, only they want it for free,And we are tired of all the rampant sale of drugs(fentanyl and other illegal drugs, and the rampant crime in our country because of stupid laws like Catch and release program. and We are tired of all the lies that have come from the Democrats in Washington DC and How they going to help us but never do.

Donald
Donald
11 days ago

What’s going to determine this election I believe depends on how many votes the democrats can manufacture overnight in key battleground states after the polls close, like they did last time! It was simply miraculous and impossible the way Biden produced all those votes overnight under the cover of darkness in those key states…I pray they don’t cheat their way to victory like last time…

Aoooga
Aoooga
11 days ago

I’m still waiting to hear what part Crook’s dad in the assignation attempt. The phone call he made to the cops on the 13th is fishy. Information is being stepped on.

Larry
Larry
11 days ago

Go here to see Kamala’s 1984 Communist party card, she really is a card carrying COMMUNIST!
blob: https ://amac .us/e721cfd7- 5778-403e-a022-741352c556ae

TPS
TPS
11 days ago

All people have to ask themselves, did my money buy more when Trump was president. If they are honest with themselves, they will vote Trump!

Orion Bennett
Orion Bennett
11 days ago

All the polls in the world … will matter little, if along with the legit mail in ballots, hundreds of thousands of illegitimate mail in ballots, with a democrat slant … end up being counted. It happened in 2020 and the only thing that is different, is that they have learned by their mistakes. 2020 was too lopsided, and obviously fixed. The margin will appear closer if they have done their job … but you can bet, the fix is already planned and in process.

Marie
Marie
10 days ago

Demonic alright that’s why they are now called DEMON-CRATS? How can these people betray our country? We are at the precipice of WW111 and do they really think our enemies will respect Kamal when they can see what a failure she is on the borders? Whether you like him or not, we need Trump to stop the wars, the looming attacks on us and most of all our economy and the security of our borders. Think with logic not emotion.

stephen stewart
stephen stewart
11 days ago

Has anybody in Pa got a mail in ballot yet? We sent 4 requests already nothing in the mail?

Fred Noel
Fred Noel
11 days ago

None of these polls take into consideration the fraudulent ballots that happens with illegal ballot harvesting and stuffing unsecured ballot drop boxes. Early voting is another avenue for fraud and corruption.

Raymond
Raymond
11 days ago

What about Trump closing the borders and Biden/Harris opening the borders. That alone shoud give Trump a landslide win. But, with all the “Democrat, No Matter What” voters, I’m not so sure

Robert
Robert
11 days ago

Polls are junk science! If they were right, we would have had President Hillary!

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
11 days ago

Thanks PA now other states do same

David
David
11 days ago

This year use the democrat tactic (VOTE EARLY VOTE OFTEN)

SAW
SAW
10 days ago

Election optimism is a good way to live, providing that cheating is minimized. The last election cycle was a fools parade thinking people would be honest. The republicans in congress and the states in the last election were to busy preparing for their millions to come in, instead of being proactive on all of the “What Ifs?”
This might be our last rodeo if the republican’s still do not have a grand plan in place. And that would mean all 50 states…

Clark Kent
Clark Kent
7 days ago

The REAL Clark Kent predicts massive voter fraud a la 2020. Anyone banking on polls is delusional. ALL Dumbocrats care about is POWER and they will do ANYTHING to keep and hold same. WAKE UP!

Veteran John Victorine
Veteran John Victorine
7 days ago

THINK: ????????????
This May be;
Our LAST {FREE}}
ELECTION !!!!!!!
P.S.
YES-VOTE (TRUMP-TRUMP-TRUMP)) ????????????

A lutz
A lutz
12 days ago

I AM a member and AM logged in. Across top is welcome! But the rest of page on iPad is: View profile, join AMAC, subscribe, Renew. Leaving little space for articles etc. I wanted to share an article with my boys, but cannot determine how to send an article to their emails.

johnh
johnh
11 days ago

Fracking is a big issue with Trump in PA, but how many people really understand what fracking is and the pros and cons of doing this with oil and natural gas. There are numerous cases on this subject , and a lot depends on if it is in your backyard or my backyard. Wonder if Harris,Walz,or Vance even know how it works?

Gilbert Gatica
Gilbert Gatica
12 days ago

If you take the averages of polls from 538, then this article is a useless exercise. Me, I will look at my ballot, Harris or Trump. Hmmmm. One candidate is a felon x34, twice impeached, indicted 4x, adjudicated rapist, awaiting sentencing on 34 felony counts, awaiting trial on removing top-secret documents, not returning them, (currently on appeal) awaiting trial on causing an insurrection, awaiting trial on attempting to overturn the will of the people in the 2020 election,exhibiting symptoms of dementia (shoots himself in the foot every time he opens his mouth) an inveterate liar, verbally attacks veterans, LGBTQ, Mexicans, Haitians, Jews, journalists, comedians, singers, pretty much anyone who disagrees with him, calls his supporters basement-dwellers….and the other candidate is none of these things
Character, honesty, integrity, compassion, and humanity will count for more than the polls, and will count for more than voters’ bias against black/south asian women.

jim nicholson and kamala harris with bible and rosary behind them about her anti-catholic acts
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