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Joe Biden Could Be in Primary Danger

Posted on Monday, February 6, 2023
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by Aaron Flanigan
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94 Comments
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AMAC Exclusive – By Aaron Flanigan

Conventional wisdom among the Washington, D.C. political class suggests that the 2024 Democratic nomination is Joe Biden’s for the taking, should he decide to mount a reelection bid. But amid consistently low poll numbers, repeated gaffes calling into question Biden’s mental fitness for office, and a growing list of policy failures, the troves of younger Democratic presidential wannabes may sense a political opportunity too enticing to resist even if the president does decide to run again.

In the modern world of cutthroat election politics, ambitious presidential hopefuls have shown that they will not hesitate if they sense weakness from an incumbent commander-in-chief. With Biden’s approval ratings now near the lowest of his presidency and polling from December showing that 70 percent of voters – including 57 percent of Democrats – don’t want Biden to run, there is reason to believe that the president is vulnerable in a primary contest. Additionally, according to a Gallup report, incumbent presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have consistently lost their reelection campaigns—another clear indicator that a primary challenge is fair game.

Repeated gaffes from the 80-year-old Biden have led to a growing perception, even among Democrats, that the president is both mentally unfit for office and will be unable to run a successful presidential campaign. In just the last few months, Biden has said that there are 54 states, forgotten the name of MLK’s daughter-in-law while singing “Happy Birthday” to her, and repeatedly looked lost and confused as he wandered off stage. White House staffers reportedly mute or turn off the TV whenever Biden speaks for fear that he will make a gaffe or veer off message.

Biden has also racked up a number of major policy failures that challengers could use to attack him in a primary contest. In addition to botching the COVID-19 response and the withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden has also overseen record-high inflation, a humanitarian crisis at the southern border, shortages of everything from couches to baby formula, and a litany of other crises.

Biden has also faced mounting criticism for the ongoing classified documents scandal and his outrageous claim that he has “no regrets” for his actions. While these fiascos will undoubtedly be hammered by any potential Republican challenger to Biden, they are also potent ammunition for other Democrats to take down the incumbent president.

Each blow against Biden is an opportunity for a potential primary challenger, including Democrats like Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and even Vice President Kamala Harris – whom Biden has repeatedly referred to as “President Harris.”

Especially if Biden looks unlikely to win a general election in 2024, ambitious Democrats could argue that any challenge to Biden is a necessary service to the party.

If history is any indication, a primary challenge could be a foreboding sign for the aging president. In the modern presidential primary era, roughly beginning following the end of World War II, every incumbent president who has faced a serious primary challenge has gone on to either drop out or lose in the general election.

During the 1968 primaries, incumbent Democrat Lyndon Johnson performed surprisingly poorly in the New Hampshire primary against Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy and faced dismal approval ratings, opening the door to an additional challenge from then-Attorney General Robert Kennedy. Johnson’s decision to halt bombing in North Vietnam early in 1968 instead of pursuing victory in the war, while popular with a small, far-left minority within the Democrat Party, was broadly unpopular with the public at large, and Johnson was eventually forced to exit the race.

“So low had Johnson’s popularity sunk,” according to a 1968 TIME report, “that last-minute surveys before the Wisconsin primary gave [Johnson] a humiliating 12% of the vote there”—an astonishingly low number for an incumbent commander-in-chief. The Democratic nomination was eventually won by Johnson’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, who went on to lose the general election to Richard Nixon.

The next Democratic president, Jimmy Carter, also faced an intense primary battle in his reelection bid. Though he ultimately eked out a victory against then-U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, Kennedy won an impressive 12 primary contests—including in the all-important states of California and New York. Kennedy did not concede the nomination until the Democratic National Convention that summer.

Republican presidents, too, have faced competitive primary challenges. The most notable was Gerald Ford, who barely won his primary contest against Ronald Reagan in what TIME magazine deemed as “the closest a sitting President has come to losing his party’s nomination in modern history.” Ford would go on to lose the general election to Jimmy Carter.

George H.W. Bush also survived a challenge from Pat Buchanan. Though Bush’s primary challenge was less significant than those faced by Johnson, Ford, and Carter, the 41st president was also weighed down by a strong third-party candidate in Ross Perot, who peeled off support from Bush in critical states.

Given Biden’s exceptionally turbulent first two years in office, it is not difficult to imagine that he, too, could face viable primary threats—and his would-be competitors almost certainly know this. And as Biden continues to face one setback after another for his administration, a primary challenge must look increasingly tempting to younger and more dynamic politicians in his own party.

Why, after all, should any young and politically talented Democrat presidential aspirant voluntarily sit out the 2024 race? The problems Biden faces are of his own making, and must seem disqualifying even to many Democrats.

Whether or not other potential candidates will have the courage to defy Biden and the national Democratic apparatus remains to be seen. But as presidential primary history suggests, these figures likely have little to lose from a primary challenge—and if they play their cards right, they could have everything to gain.

Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.

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tika
tika
1 year ago

one thing is certain; he will never know.

james carlyle
james carlyle
1 year ago

This guy was a setup to deselect Trump. Neither he nor any of his Democratic colleagues are qualified to be POTUS

TOMASD
TOMASD
1 year ago

The man is too old, too incompetent and too clueless. The republican party should hope he runs in 2024 but Biden’s only chance of winning would be against Trump. Too many people simply despise Trump and will (have) voted for whoever was running against Trump (Biden). I know people that said they knew nothing about Biden or politics in general BUT they couldn’t stand Trump so they voted for Biden. Although this is ridiculous and a sign of ignorance, it goes to show that Trump should not be the candidate. Also, Trump would be a lame duck from day one. We need someone younger and that doesn’t have built in opposition from the beginning. It seems like DeSantis is the leading republican but we know that can all change very quickly. If Biden were to run and win in a primary (doubtful), he won’t be able to hide in his basement this time around, after all he is (supposedly) running the country (into the ground). Whoever (Obama’s third term) is pulling Biden’s strings would want Biden to run again and with the crooked support of the media, they could steal another election. That would give Obama his fourth term and put him up there with FDR.

Bob jewell
Bob jewell
1 year ago

True democrat presidents, Truman, JFK, and LBJ (without Vietnam) were truly presidents of the people. Most democrats then ran their lives as conservative, there was no such thing as woke this or that, and whatever wild radical types ran as obscure third party. Things can’t get a whole lot worse, Biden and the rest have to go to. Let’s all keep track of his lies tonight, then listen to Sarah H. For the truth.

Ben Ray
Ben Ray
1 year ago

The gaffes and weakness are definitely a concern – especially on the world stage with Afghanistan, Iran, Russia, Ukraine and China. The next thing has to be the corruption of the Biden crime family: Joe, brother James and son Hunter. He has been greatly compromised.
Finally, and this is an issue for any Socialist Democratic candidate, are the policies. Their policies are destroying the nation. Huge spending and waste (Republicans can share in the blame for some of this as well); lack of support for Law Enforcement, Liberal courts and ignoring the rule of law = higher crime; Open Borders = Billions, stressed services, human trafficking, deadly drugs; more & bigger government (most Americans view government as our biggest problem); no strategy on Climate change other than fear, radical mandates and spend trillions; woke hate, racism and division… Democrats have bad policies but they and the media are experts at messaging and spin.

Ken
Ken
1 year ago

Can’t imagine being a secret service agent and have to protect and take a bullet for this bumbling idiot.

ja graham
ja graham
1 year ago

I wish I could figure out who is really in power of our country. Is it really the military or some dark Left wing group or both. Either way, under this administration we are doomed. Biden displays no real leadership on any level I can see. As crazy as things have gotten Biden could run and win again. He stole the last election. Why not another. Not at all what I want. Please, a little sanity would be nice.

Myrna Wade
Myrna Wade
1 year ago

If there is no contest for the nomination, there should be.

Morbious
Morbious
1 year ago

Both johnson and biden represent disastrous times in american history but theres one big difference between them- many dem voters in 68 were traditional dems living conservative lives. The actual poll numbers weren’t given in the piece but im guessing bidens poll numbers to be roughly double what johnsons were. The reason is that todays dem voters are communists, perverts and layabouts. Therefore whatever candidate they field will poll between 40-50% no matter what. Thats a luxury the Rs lack. R voters can be swayed by circumstances. Dem robots cannot.

David Millikan
David Millikan
1 year ago

DICTATOR Beijing biden wasn’t even fit to run for president let along be one. Look at all the Drugs they put him on during Debate with PRESIDENT TRUMP so he could act coherent responding.
How many Drugs will he be on for his DICTATOR Address so he can read the teleprompter?
Either way, he is a DISGRACE and has made the United States a laughing stock in the world.
Look at recent actions doing NOTHING for 8 DAYS before having 1 of at least 3 Communist China SPY Balloons shot down while flying over the U.S. covering 4,000 MILES while others just keep flying over the U.S..
Communist China definitely found out that we don’t have any response to THREATS unless the Polls suggest action should be taken.
Only FASCIST liberals would depend on Polls to Defend OUR COUNTRY.
PURE WEAKNESS and DISGUSTING.

Joearcher
Joearcher
1 year ago

According to the article, “according to a Gallup report, incumbent presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have consistently lost their reelection campaigns”. All the more reason to encourage FJB to run, and lose!

Rick
Rick
1 year ago

The demented ol crook should be in jail, not the White House.

Granny26
Granny26
1 year ago

He should be in a ‘home’ for dementia patients, not the White House.

ROGER CLAY
ROGER CLAY
1 year ago

The people who placed Joe in power would like to place a different puppet in power.

anna hubert
anna hubert
1 year ago

When complaining as a child gran always said it could always be worse I pray to God that is not the case

Barrett Smith
Barrett Smith
1 year ago

biden would have to run another basement campaign and you know what that means.

CoNMTX
CoNMTX
1 year ago

I don’t see where it matter which candidate gets the nomination. One is as evil and satanic as the other. None of them are the brightest bulbs on the string, and all of them are wicked Godless globalists whose goal is one-world government. I also don’t think it matters because they will win regardless. The globalists need to act fast to obtain their goal by 2030. Therefore, they will stop at nothing. They will cheat, steal, lie, or kill. I don’t see anyone able to overcome their satanic backing.

Patriot Will
Patriot Will
1 year ago

Carter barely won his renomination, and even though he was a very weak and dysfunctional leader, his executive abilities were significant compared to those of an incompetent and feckless Biden. This leads many to believe that Biden has absolutely no chance in being renominated. Even some of Biden’s strongest protectors and supporters are openly expressing grave doubts about Biden’s abilities as a communicator and policy maker. Biden has long a history of being a partisan hack who changes his talking points frequently to fit his latest attempts at fooling the American public. It looks like Biden has finally blown his cover, and even the Marist media can no longer hide Biden’s true empty suit ineptitude.

Del
Del
1 year ago

The list of Democrat challengers is laughable. Any one of those mentioned in this article would be as bad a choice as Biden himself. Buttigieg couldn’t run his town as a mayor and is AWOL a aTransportation leader. Newsom has driven his state even further into debt and disarray with Calfornians fleeing the overwhelmingly bad decisions he has made, their taxation, high cost of living, immigration and race relations. crime, the homeless and an increasingly poor public educational system.In fact, the only good thing about CA these days is the weather, even with drought, mudslides and earthquakes. In fact Calif. is the butt of many very bad jokes due to Newsom. And I doubt anyone is seriously considering that the Cackler could make it past a primary for the WH. There is little to no Democrat bench so the DNC may just continue to support Biden as the pick of the litter.

Ann S
Ann S
1 year ago

Aaron didn’t even touch on the education system that is being forced on our kids and Brandon supports. And what about keeping us safe at home and in the work place or on the streets.
He doesn’t care. It is genocide by criminals. And he supports it.
How anyone can support this man and his regime is beyond me.

Spacey
Spacey
1 year ago

Biden is worst President in the history of the USA. Bring back the true winner of the 2020 election and someone who works for the betterment of our Country. The left is blind and are in an unrealistic plane of existance. The Right is Right. We see the corruption of elections and officials, we see the quid pro quo. The people need to be prosecuted for thier crimes. We need the FBI, Justice Dept and others brought back to non partisanship where these crimes are prosecuted and brought to a stop.

Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
1 year ago

Maby secertly the dems ant a repub. in there,

timothy Michael
timothy Michael
1 year ago

Without question, J.R. Biden is the worst President in American history. His list of debacles and poor decisions will be studied by historians, who will confirm his incompetence and malfeasance. Worst of all, he will be proven to have sold influence throughout his career as a politician and office holder. If justice in America was truly fair and the rule of law was the standard for every citizen, Biden would spend his last days in a federal prison and not a beach house that was purchased with money from foreign sources dedicated to overthrowing America.

Joe
Joe
1 year ago

Biden has much bigger issues than running for re-election in 2024. Hopefully, the Republican House will get a solid case on him for the corruption he and his Son (Hunter) and Brother (Jim) are involved with. When he was VP during the Obama administration, Joe Biden empowered this crime syndicate to develop for years. Money from China, Ukraine, and Russia, to name a few. Money has flooded into Biden’s accounts. The money that has exchanged hands from these countries to the Biden’s is mind-boggling. The American people need to know and learn the truth about the Biden family’s corruption. He should not have ran prior and stayed in Delaware! 

Steven Tapper
Steven Tapper
1 year ago

In a recent poll with voters having an IQ over 50, 10 out of 10 have indicated that Biden is unelectable even with voter machine tampering and the normal voter fraud that takes place when Democrats run for office. He wasn’t cognitively fit to run for office in 2020 and with his family ties to China he is likely to be indicted before the next election. The Democrats will have to search their deep bench of unqualified candidates to find his successor.

Rik
Rik
1 year ago

What difference does it matter? . . . He NEVER WON the last election! No matter who the Progressively Communist wannabe Democrats run they will be “elected” too because I haven’t seen where Republicans have done anything to guarantee an “honest” election! Besides, why do you think they are allowing 6 million illegals into the country, it’s because they want to make them “voters” knowing they will probably “vote” for the hand that helped them. And when that happens, Republicans should demand that any “voters” SHOULD HAVE TO READ, WRITE & SPEAK ENGLISH or sorry, they’re not citizens!

John Bass
John Bass
1 year ago

Primary danger my foot! So long as elections remain the same, we’ll be getting the same results. We’ve allowed one steal already so why not another and then another. Until the problem is fixed or there are no longer any dems, we’re going to continue to have stolen elections.

If you remember there was an article on AMAC several weeks ago about how the dems from day one of the democratic party have been cheating and rigging elections. Now they’ve perfected it and it seems the American public is too lazy to care.

Dennis Belotti
Dennis Belotti
1 year ago

Patriots, As long as the voting machines and poll workers remain corrupted the DEMS can elect a three legged dog with no problem !
This situation must be corrected or there is absolutely no hope of a fair election

A.Grace
A.Grace
1 year ago

Don’t the Dems have a better choice than JB who isn’t afraid to run against him?

Michael Brown
Michael Brown
1 year ago

One thing that Joe Biden has gotten better at, having begun as an expert, is gaffs.

Veteran
Veteran
1 year ago

The “Primary Danger” for Joe Biden at this time has nothing to do with elections, but the prospective for a permanent change of venue to a different kind of gated, guarded federal government facility, and wearing orange jumpsuits for decades !

jocko
jocko
1 year ago

THIS CANCEROUS, ANTI-AMERICAN, LYING, CHEATING, MENTALLY DEFICIENT POS liberal NEEDS TO BE HUNG IN PUBLIC

John Diaz
John Diaz
1 year ago

I no longer care if Joe Biden is in danger of anything other than letting the nukes out. I only care about America and what Americans are going to be suffering if it gets too stupid to understand his misdirection of his leadership.

Lieutenant Beale
Lieutenant Beale
1 year ago

Biden, Butt-Giggle, Newsom, or Harris.
We’re in trouble if the election system remains as it is.

Tom
Tom
1 year ago

I respect the office of President of the United States and have stayed away from news and tv for 35 years. Had to watch Biden speach to see what all the problems claimed by others. No way. This is not real. This man appears drunk on stage and lost physically and mentally! Read where Biden team don’t get along with Harris crowd. Question: Why is Harris standing to Bidens right at every speach??? Is this a normal act or is this mental support for Biden. Never saw that before. Remember the dems will be loaded for bear in 24. What can be accomplished to get an honest election???

Kim
Kim
1 year ago

Never in my 70 years have I witnessed such bungling in the federal government. Even worse is the fact that half of this country’s voters chose this administration! Biden’s mental deterioration will probably worsen over the next 2 years, so I doubt if he’ll be allowed to run for reelection in 2024.

Conservatives have improved somewhat in the arena of media misinformation by fighting back and challenging “journalists” when they lie for the other side. We can’t let even the smallest slight get by without pushback.

Since there’s no one in the D party qualified to be president, it should be an easy (or should I say logical) win for a Republican, assuming honest elections and strong representation from our candidates. Please don’t be tempted by a third-party candidate or writing-in your favorites. That’s guaranteed to lose races for Republicans.

PaulE
PaulE
1 year ago

Another article ignoring the elephant in the room. As long as mass mail-in balloting continues to the new defacto standard for voting across this nation, any Democrat is likely to win in 2024. Remember, it’s who counts the votes that matters, not the number of votes cast. Whether it be Biden, Newsom or any other Democrat candidate really doesn’t matter at the end of the day. They ALL stand for the exact same socialist policies, so there would be no real change in national direction. We would continue on our downward trajectory, while we continue to make ourselves ever more dependent on China for everything. So who really cares whether Biden heads the Democrat ticket or it is another socialist. The end result would be the same.

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