Government Watch / Politics

Iran Nuclear Breakout – Time to Focus


Iran is accelerating the pursuit of nuclear weapons. What the Biden Administration and Congress do next will fundamentally affect global security. The next few months may be the most important in 40 years. Here is why.

Iran has long wanted to create five small, implosion-type nuclear weapons. A leading sponsor of terror, this radical Islamic state – hostile to the West and competing ideologies, religions, otedot branches of Islam – is an inherent danger. See, e.g., Iran’s Nuclear Timetable: The Weapon Potential.

Nuclear weapons compound that danger, even if delivery systems are primitive and number of devices limited. Iran would instantly broadcast their breakout, intimidating and threatening others with nuclear weapons.

Worse, a nuclear Iran would change the established norms – centered on limited nuclear powers. Breakout, even premised on deterrence, would be the opening salvo in a global race for nuclear capabilities. Sunni nations, and others consciously holding back, would open, pressing ahead.

Reality:  The much-touted Obama nuclear containment deal – never properly ratified as a treaty, silenced by Trump – was nothing more than a foil. The unenforceable treaty was systematically undercut by Iran, amounting to a shameless, pre-agreed “get out of jail free” card entitling Iran to nukes. 

Not having that precatory, unenforceable non-treaty in place – hard truth –had no appreciable effect on Iran’s ambitions. Iran was as they are, unfettered, undeterred, and unrepentant – wholly determined to be a nuclear power.

Why are the coming months so important? Four reasons.

First, Iran is nearing “break out” in their technology development. If Iran decides this is a breakout moment, they could enrich uranium to weapons-grade within months, possibly in weeks. They have been nearing this goal for years.

Congress has just been briefed on this sobering reality. Democrats and Republicans are reacting differently. Republicans have pressed– in a hard-hitting letter to Biden – that Iran be stopped, no new “deal” reached, period. They note that Congress and the next administration – would kill it dead.

Democrats have taken a predictable tack, blaming the pending Iranian breakout on Trump’s withdrawal from the non-treaty, hand wringing, hoping for the best, asking Iran to please sign a new deal. Hope is not a strategy.

The second reason the next few months are vital? Iran will make the breakout decision – or decide to postpone it. Right, Biden’s course is to lock on to that reality – confront it, not hope for another, fictional reality.

Biden should stop peacenik negotiations in Vienna, reverse the recent lifting of Trump’s sanctions on Iran’s civilian nuclear program, talk turkey. Say: The US and allies will use all tools to blunt the breakout – diplomatic, economic, cyber, and kinetic. Make the Iranians guess. 

Biden should send a top-fight diplomat to Teheran – to make clear this is not business as usual, not a tolerable event, their critical infrastructure could fall.

Biden should prepare – with clarity – to isolate Iran economically, then make clear what is muddled: We have concrete actions ready also for Russia, China, and North Korea. This kind of global leadership would give Iran pause.

Third reason coming months are going to be critical:  The US is about to be tested as not since WWII, or tough moments in the Cold War. A confluence of hostile probes, warm spots that could go hot simultaneously, is afoot. 

Not to see, this is pretty hard. Most Americans see it – without special briefings, without special training. China, Russia, North Korea, drug traffickers, communist and socialist internal destabilizers, border busters – and Iran – are all pressing us. They could press simultaneously, cross-cover, and distract.

The fourth and final reason these could be tough months – starting with Iran? As indicated at the top, Iran is the potential first domino. All could tip to instability. Or something else could happen, regardless of whether Biden’s team steps up before breakout. 

If a united, effective, global response follows potential Iranian nuclear breakout; if a combination of diplomatic, economic, cyber, and kinetic reactions is prepared – and then stops Iran in their tracks – this could be the sort of inflection point which changes everything, for the positive.

If the world can prepare for a breakout, try to deter it with intent, but then – if it happens – turn it around with unified action, the future becomes brighter overnight. No other nation will seek that avenue; Iran might even back off. 

Main point: When a destabilizing global reality forms on the horizon, as in June 1914 (WW I), November 1917 (Bolshevik Revolution), October 1938 (Nazi Germany invaded the Sudetenland) – do not look away. We have a chance to get this right – so, let’s try.

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1 year ago

Don’t let the Russia Ukraine situation side line us. Keep your eyes peeled on Iran. Who’s worse?
Hope the good Lord is still on our side

Judy K.
1 year ago

I can hardly believe I’m living in this time. A time that may be our last in a country that was once blessed by Almighty God to be the most powerful nation on the Earth. He blessed us with faithful, strong leaders who stood toe to toe with leaders of nations who were either tyrants or who were strong leaders themselves who just needed help to protect their people from those tyrants.
God has been good to us in this country! He helped us win very important wars, like the War against Hitler, and our own Civil War. We fought for the good of mankind in the world and here at home.
America began to basque in her successes, and become puffed up, touting her greatness to the world. We began sticking our nose where it didn’t belong….in wars that we weren’t asked for help or support in. Many lives were destroyed by either their being killed, or being physically mamed for life. Our brave Soldiers who selflessly fought in those wars were not treated with the dignity and respect they deserved when they returned home. It was shameful, dispicable and inexcusable!
The rest of the world gained the perspective of our country as being an overbearing mother hen. Some of our leaders were not supportive of one another, and tensions began to escalate between our two party system. Our dependance on God’s guidance and purpose for our country was also fading.
There have been judgements against this country for her times of stepping back from God. But the last time was in September of 2011. We were attacked and our Twin Towers were destroyed, and over three hundred thousand people lost their lives…at last report. Many were on their knees asking God’s forgiveness and mercy. That time God saw fit to give us another chance.

Now, I’m afraid of what God has planned for Americas next hour.

A few years ago I was listening to the song, ‘Bye, Bye Miss American Pie.’
It reminded me of a message taught from a Paster years ago from a passage of scripture in the book of Revelations. It was about the nation once blessed by God to be a great and powerful nation. That nation turned her back on the Lord God. She had become lifted up and saw herself as equal to God. He gave her a name; MYSTERY BABYLON THE GREAT, THE MOTHER OF HARLOTS. She brought God’s mighty vengeance against her. She would be destroyed with a bessom of destruction ‘in one hour’ to never be inhabited again.
The words to Bye, Bye Miss American Pie I discovered is about America’s eventual destruction. I wonder how many others discovered the same from that song. I think
Don McClean was either a visionary or he heard a similar message based on what is going to happen to this nation when God says, enough!
The Pastor of a church I had attended, made an assumption about the time God may remove His hand from this nation. He said that if this country ever turned it’s back on Israel, he said this country might be finished.

I pray for the Salvation of my family and God’s mercy on our Souls. Please don’t let it be time yet Lord, help us please, help our country return to you Heavenly Father. I pray for a Spiritual Revival in America,
In Christ’s precious name, Amen.

Thank you Lord God that you are the only God of truth and that you are in control of everything. We are assured we are never alone. Thank you dear God most of all for your Son, Jesus Christ, our Savior! Amen

1 year ago
Reply to  Judy K.

I know that you have a grasp on the word of God. Remember that Lord Jesus that the days would become like the days of Noah. The books of Genesis, Exodus, Esther, Isaiah, Jeremiah, Ezekiel, Joel, Habakkuk, Zechariah, Malachi, the 4 Gospels, Romans, 1st Corinthians, 1st Thessalonians and Revelation lay out the groundwork of the things that are coming in the future for God’s Kingdom on this world. Fear is a weapon that Satan has used from the beginning to keep God’s children from following his commands. Bible prophecy has been and continues to be fulfilled on God’s time table, not ours. It can be delayed but it won’t go away, it will be fulfilled. Continue to do God’s work despite the daily persecution worldwide as Satan does his best to mislead the children of God. Hand your life to God and do his bidding. Amen.

Helena Brus
1 year ago

…religions, otedot branches of Islam… – Can’t find this word in the dictionary; was it a typo?

Biden should send a top-fight diplomat to Teheran…Did the writer mean top-flight as top-fight is not in the dictionary?

jake the snake
1 year ago

well this is exactly what Obama and the democrats wanted! a Muslim country with the same capabilities as Israel and the USA.

I suspect the democrats will do everything they can to help IRAN.

1 year ago

Biden doesn’t do anything without the say-so from his billionaire handlers. His few remaining sputtering brain cells couldn’t make such decisions. The controlling globalists will do whatever is most negative for America and Israel. They want a military and monetary collapse so they can “Build Back Socialist”. We’re not dealing with just “bad people”. We are dealing with evil, wicked, conscienceless people controlled by Satan. They do not care about human life, just their agenda of a one-world government with them in control.

Stephen Russell
1 year ago

Coming WW3

1 year ago

Very well written article RBC, but Iran is going to allowed to get the nuclear bomb by the Biden administration no matter what phony document both sides ultimately agree to. Blinken has pretty much already agreed to give Iran everything it wants, and Iran is holding out for even more from a U.S. that it sees as desperate to make a deal at any cost.

Iran will ignore any deal it signs, just like they did with the last one under Obama and continue towards building a nuclear weapon. Once Iran has nuclear capabilities, the rest of the world is NOT going to rally around a united front against Iran. Half of Europe views Iran has a valuable trading partner, so they are not going to join in any serious diplomatic, economic or military actions that might deter Iran. Look at the convoluted mess over in Europe over Ukraine and there’s not even any serious talk of nuclear weapons, wide-spread war across multiple countries or anything approaching the type of threat a nuclear armed Iran would pose to the world. Just Putin taking advantage of a weakened United States under Biden and fractured EU incapable of agreeing to anything but endlessly talking about it to grab some more land.

I agree with you that the world cannot continue to either look away or simply choose to appease regimes that have the potential to inflict great damage upon the world. We both know how that ultimately ends. However, to do the sort of actions you outline requires real world leaders, that are willing to do the hard things to end the threat. Whether that be either economic or militarily. At this point in time, we don’t have any such leaders either here in the United States or in much of the rest of the western world. Which is why the Mullahs in Iran, Putin in Russia, Xi in China and Kim in North Korea feel so emboldened to pursue their current courses of action. Weakness always invites aggression. Strength always deters it. Currently, from the United States perspective, we are projecting weakness in spades everywhere.

1 year ago
Reply to  PaulE

We know that Israel will do what it needs to do to defend itself from Iranian terror with or without USA support. The downside — The Biden administration will condemn Israel for any action taken that they feel embarrasses the USA.

1 year ago
Reply to  Max

The Democrats are already trying to sanction or otherwise punish Israel for simply speaking the truth as to what Iran will do once it is nuclear capable. Iran itself has stated the exact same thing a number of times, but of course the MSM in this country buries the news. So the average American is completely oblivious to what Iran is promising to do to the United States.

Yes of course Israel will defend itself, but neither the U.S. nor the Europeans should be burying their heads in the sand in the meantime hoping Iran doesn’t target one or both of them first. Look at what the Biden administration has already decided to give Iran in the latest “negotiations” with Iran, in terms of concessions and billions of additional dollars, and Iran doesn’t even have a viable nuclear weapon yet.

1 year ago
Reply to  PaulE

The administration continues adding on to the forthcoming nightmare.

1 year ago

0bama directly financed a lot of this.

Steve G
1 year ago

Everyone thinks that the coming elections will get rid of the demoncrats power, but will see, with the elitists & tech giants working feverishly to subvert the voting machines, the influx & spread of illegals throughout the country being paid to vote democratic, chief satanist Soros spending billions across the country to spread poison to our justice system & support a false racism in our country, the spread of hatred for America in our schools, the spread of cancel culture & wokism. I see the only way this country remains free is a revolution by the grassroots of hardworking Americans & forceably getting rid of the illegal media & the groups mentioned above. A large concentration camp in the desert of Nevada is where they can all be sent to of those that survive the bloodshed that is coming!!!!!!!

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