Politics

Impeachment Update – Wind Tunnel Ahead

impeachment

We are entering a political wind tunnel.  An impeachment vote in the US House appears, after conclusory hearings, increasingly likely.  But a word of caution; “Be careful what you wish for”, may become the Democrat mantra.  Here is why.

From the moment this “impeachment inquiry” began – first without a chamber vote, then with one; first in closed hearings, then nominally public; first demanding the whistleblower be heard, then demanding he not; first promises of material witnesses, then excluding them; first swearing “fair and impartial” proceedings, then offering “sit down and shut up” partisanship – the outcome was clear.  House Democrats, who failed impeachment with Mueller, still want to unseat Trump.

As impeachment proceeds, expect it to get messier. The next step will be deciding whether to call more anti-Trump witnesses, as Thanksgiving’s recess will school House Democrats on their weak case.  Independents are tipping against impeachment. 

One way to improve their odds is to showcase more anti-Trump witnesses.  Risk is this takes time, confirms their case’s weakness, and pushes more Independents and Democrats against impeachment.  It could also get boring.

Assuming no more witnesses, the process remains messy.  At present, House Speaker Pelosi has not “whipped” the vote.  She will surely wait until after Thanksgiving, then give a rah-rah-must-impeach speech.  Leadership will ask, then demand, cajole, and threaten payback, if Democrats do not vote “yea.”

An outside chance exists that whipping it hard, Democrats do not get the numbers for a big “yea” vote, triggering a rethink, retreat to censure.  Five reasons explain.

First, the case is objectively weak – and after Thanksgiving recess, members will return having heard “yea” from their base, but “whoa” from the rest.  Getting outside their DC bubble, House Democrats may realize their case is weak.

Second, more than 50 Democrat seats are in jeopardy during 2020, with more than 30 in districts Trump won in 2016, before his roaring economy.  In 13 of these, Trump beat Clinton by six points.  Notably, if the GOP wins 20, the House flips.

Third, many House Democrats may realize – looking ahead – that Republicans will call witnesses in the Senate, disrupting the tidy House storyline and highlighting Chairman Schiff’s personal machinations.  Once on, the lights will be bright.

In short, untidy bits – heard only in Star Chamber – will get outed.  The Democrat’s ends-justify-the-means show will become more obvious.  That will be hard to defend, harder than a no vote, next November. 

Fourth, with the Republican Senate likely to vote down impeachment, new problems arise.  House members must defend a failed effort, and personalities behind it.  Already two Democrats have said, no.  The question will be:  Why didn’t you vote against this nonsense in the House?  Every House Democrat will be on the spot.

Fifth, perhaps most stinging, House process was not “due process.”  The process used is a nightmare to defend.  No credible claim can be made that it was “fair and impartial.”  Articles of impeachment were likely long before public hearings. 

Moreover, release of Justice’s IG report in early December, paired with Senate Judiciary hearings, will likely suggest the Russia-collusion probe was corrupt, further hurting Democrat credibility. 

To that, add likely indictments of some Obama Administration personnel in the now-criminal probe by Justice into origins of the Russia collusion story.  All this should give every House Democrat pause.

Nevertheless, political pressure will be hard to resist.  While one might imagine there are independent-minded members in both parties, do not count on House Democrats sticking their heads up.  Pelosi will sanction those who vote against her.

So, the next likely event will be a House vote – the majority favoring impeachment, even if a few fall off.  Big losers in this vote will not be Republicans, not even Donald Trump.  The House Speaker, in a clearer time, swore she would only stage an impeachment vote if bipartisan.  That plainly is not in the cards. 

She knew the process would fail to be bipartisan, which is why she did not start with a chamber vote; she did that only when forced by political pressure.  That vote was overwhelmingly partisan, two Democrats joining all Republicans in opposing it.

No, the big losers will be the Democratic Party, torn between ultra-left socialism, and a few wistfully recalling Harry Truman’s Party – now dead.  Trump will use this impeachment debacle against his opponent, and House Democrats who jumped into the caldron.

The other big losers will be the American people.  Why?  Not only has this rabbit hole caused the House not to conference appropriations bills, pass legislation, and support trade, it now hobbles Senate work on all those priorities.

The impeachment also endangers national security, as US adversaries move forward around the globe, and US leaders are distracted, dysfunctional, and viewed as weak. 

House Democrats are hobbling Executive operations across government, distracting Defense, State, Homeland Security and Justice with this political trick. Who will pay for that?  The American People.  Just as we pay for the perception that American democracy is off the rails, our beacon dulled.

Expect an impeachment vote against the President, unless 30 or more members of the Democratic caucus stop it – and retreat to censure.  Expect a puffed up, theatrical Senate trial – costly, distracting, politically-inspired, a hate-fest. 

The President will likely be acquitted, but our nation will be wounded.  Far from Pelosi’s odd claim that “impeachment will unite us,” no such thing will happen. 

In the end, Democrats will say they impeached a Republican president, laying a historic marker.  Republicans will point out the pointlessness of that exercise.  Then, all will face the American people.  That is when the real wind tunnel will blow.

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Read more articles by Robert B. Charles

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R shoemaker

Meanwhile the economy keeps roaring ahead. Meanwhile, the House is doing nothing on the very important US/Mexico/Canada trade agreement that was submitted by the WH back in July. The media is working day and night to discredit Trump and give the DIMs cover for their naked ambition to take complete power. I just hope their are enough bright people left in the US to settle this in the 2020 voting booth.

Dennis S

If they were doing this on their own time, and not being paid for not accomplishing anything important, this would stop immediately. Instead, taxpayers are paying the House members for doing nothing but sitting on their thumbs.

Greg Baker

Nancy Pelosi is going down in history as the worst speaker of the house! If the Democrats want they can elect a new speaker to try to save face, which I doubt will happen! If the Democrats would get back to work and fix things they might save a few Representatives from losing their jobs. Trump is doing a good job getting things done and I’m glad I voted for him and I am voting for him again! I am also looking to see if we can have the next President keep it going on draining the swamp!

Veteran

Democrats have overplayed their hand putting on full display their open aggression against our laws, constitution, our country, our values, and our way of life. Since they no longer believe to be bound by any of it neither House rules, laws, or the constitution, or their oath of office, why are they still permitted to participate in government? All throughout the last few years they have dropped any and all pretense that they might be in any form interested in furthering the public good, or our country; acting instead to endanger the public, obliterate our borders, and destroy our defense from enemies closer to their ideology who wish to gain global dominance. The long list of corruption, bribery, quid-pro-quo, pay-for-play, graft, theft, sedition, depravity, conspiracy, slander, and treason we have seen acted out by the Democrats and their organization leads to the question why this party has not been banned.… Read more »

Wayne D Peterkin

The Democrats have been dedicated to a political coup to erase the 2016 election. That is both obvious and true. They deserve complete and total condemnation for what they have done and are doing. However, even though they have zero evidence that President Trump committed any crime at all, they will vote to impeach him on hearsay and conjecture. His removal from office should die in the Senate with no hope of conviction. I have argued this entire travesty, which is in fact treasonous, is really intended to continue smearing the president to prevent his re-election. I hope it backfires and fails. No intelligent person should ever vote for another stinking Democrat after this farce. In fact, I would support arrest of the leaders of this coup charging them with treason, because that is exactly what they are guilty of based on the Merriam-Webster definition of the term. Whether you… Read more »

Patty H

I have never watched the quasi-impeachment hearings. They are too farcical for me to waste my time. Nothing, absolutely nothing, has been accomplished by the House other than hiding in the basement of the White House. Come to think of it that’s a good long-term idea. Lock the door from the outside.

James E Jones

I for one want to see an impeachment trial cause it will blow the democrats out of the water due to testimony will have to be under oath and there are some democrats that should be subpoenaed who they have a very difficult time stating truth.

Robert J. White

Know what the saddest part of this whole thing? The Dems with a little thought could have shared the lime lite with Trump on the success of a positive America. They chose HATE INSTEAD. Americans do not wallow in hate, it gets old very fast.

M. Franklin

Schiff, Pelosi and Company’s obsessive anger, corrupt impeachment train wreck, and vile hatred for President Trump has far more than clouded their ability to think straight and has completely stopped their willingness or ability to get ANY much needed work to be done. Further, this unwarranted partisan disdain for the President has also blinded their ability to see, accept, or heaven forbid PRAISE all of the great-for-America accomplishments he has done in spite of zero support from Democrats or the media. Yes, President Trump has and continues to put America FIRST by KEEPING his promises, while the do-nothing of importance Democrats chase childish ghosts and hunt fairy tale witches. Voters will remember in 2020.

John Karkalis

Good economy, takedown of a cutthroat terrorist.
But I repeat myself.
Concentrate on accomplishments, not burlesque.

James Minnich

THE SOONER THESE PEOPLE ARE VOTED OUT OF OFFICE THE BETTER. THEY HAVE CONTINUED TO WASTE TAX PAYERS FUND AND DO NOTHING FOR THE WELL BEING OF OR COUNTRY AND PEOPLE.

Stephen Russell

Impeachment outcomes:
Those running for office vacat trail for DC hearings
More lies ahead
No proof
Public ticked off over events since 2016.
ZZZZ, boring hearings.
“Impeached” but wins reelection?
Have No plans for winning or losing Impeachment.
& WE Voters Suffer

Lila Ryder

I agree with everything you have said. Even I am getting tired of hearing the same dogma over and over.

djl

i suggest stopping congressional paychecks until they do something to earn them

GA Fisher

I like the photo which illustrates this post – a wind tunnel’s huge impeller – and wouldn’t mind seeing the Schiff hit the fan. If the Democrats have any sense that is unlikely to happen, for the reasons given plus the fact this impeachment sideshow has all but buried the Democrat Presidential campaign – the debate which took place just after the hearings adjourned had the lowest viewer numbers yet, embarrassingly low, and even commentators from the left (which is most of them) are laughing at the Schiff-show. Meanwhile, President Trump’s numbers are rising as America comes to realize that whether they like him or not, DJT has committed no “high crimes” nor misdemeanors, certainly none which rise to the level of impeachment. My members of Congress are well aware of my opposition to the farce; contacting their offices is easy, and I *always* request (and get) a personal response;… Read more »

Rick J.

All this nonsense has proved one thing… Pelosi is full of “schiff” !!
The “dimocraps” can’t walk and chew gum at the same time.

Bill Hall

Remember. This whole impeachment process is to distract us from the revelations to be forthcoming regarding an attempted overthrow of an elected President by unelected bureaucrats and ‘intelligence” entities that know more than we the people. We cannot allow them to get away with this. This isn’t just about President Trump, he’s the immediate victim, this is about the integrity of our democratic republic. It must stand.

Ed J

I’m looking forward for this impeachment effort to simply implode at some point (hopefully sooner rather than later). The Demsheviks ultimate failure will be the only POSITIVE thing to ever come our of this fantasy perpetrated by Bull Schiff, Crazy Nancy and their likewise intellectually challenged co-conspirators.

Patriot Will

Hearsay, gossip, partisanship, wishful thinking, false assumptions, hate, weak thinking, etc. are the Democrats rationalizations for impeaching President Trump — very sad and disgraceful. The Democrats are doing their best to destroy both themselves and the USA.

Dave Campbell

If you hate The United States of America, vote for Democrats.