Election Coverage / Government Watch / Politics

Five Potential October Surprises That Could Still Shake Up the Midterms

AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris


With more than two months still to go until Election Day, there are a number of potential developments that could yet shake up the midterms. Here are five that would instantly change the national political environment heading into the home stretch.

A Deliberate Leak That Joe Biden Won’t Run in 2024

As the fall approaches and Democrats feel the heat of public frustration at the dire state of the nation’s affairs, some in the President’s party and even his own White House may be tempted to do something desperate that they hope would change the political game. One strategy would undoubtedly instantly redraw the electoral landscape: dropping the bombshell that Biden will not seek reelection.

While the prospect of Biden himself announcing before November that he won’t run for a second term seems unlikely at this point, the choice may not be up to him alone. Cunning political operatives hoping to save Democrats’ chances might calculate that by preemptively rendering Biden a lame duck, they could turn the election from a referendum on Biden—as Republicans wish to style it—into more of a choice about the nation’s future governance.

Such a leak, whether from senior Democrats in Congress or perhaps even officials in Biden’s own White House, would do much to take the wind of voter anger out of Republicans’ sails. It would simply be difficult to arouse the same passions against a spent political force in Joe Biden. Meanwhile, many Republicans have built their entire message around opposition to Biden, often barely mentioning Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and the Democrat Congress. Democrats effectively announcing Biden’s imminent retirement would leave the GOP without a clear message in the closing stretch of the campaign and cut short the expected rallying effect of the President’s historic unpopularity.

For Democrats and the media, Biden has always been a blunt instrument to advance their own power. Don’t be surprised if they throw what’s left of his political career to the dogs this October if they think it will improve their chances in November.

A Major Development in the Hunter Biden Saga

According to information from anonymous sources late last month, Justice Department prosecutors are weighing possible criminal charges against the President’s son for his sketchy business dealings and involvement with foreign governments – charges that could implicate Joe Biden himself. Additionally, there are still a number of lingering questions about the FBI’s involvement in covering up the Hunter Biden laptop scandal ahead of the 2020 election. Just last week, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg admitted that the platform actively censored the story at the behest of the FBI.

According to a Rasmussen poll conducted after Joe Biden took office and mainstream outlets finally admitted that the Hunter Biden laptop was legitimate, two-thirds of voters believe the story is “important,” while 79% believe it could have changed the outcome of the 2020 election if it was not suppressed by the media. With pressure mounting on investigators to provide explanations for the string of suspicious payments to the Biden family, another major bombshell could be just around the corner. This time, voters will likely be far more skeptical of the inevitable media cover-up.

(More) Damaging Revelations About the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago Raid

Following the FBI’s raid on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, questions have emerged about the motivation for the raid and just how much senior members of the Biden administration – and the President himself – knew about the assault on Biden’s chief political rival. Following the release of a comically redacted affidavit that offers only a shoddy legal basis for the raid, and as Attorney General Merrick Garland continues to dodge questions about why it was necessary to send 30 armed agents to rifle through every slip of paper on Trump’s property for nine and a half hours, taking with them private and privileged material, it is increasingly obvious to voters that the raid was a blatant political hit job.

According to a recent Rasmussen Reports poll, a whopping 53% of voters agreed with the statement that the FBI has become “Joe Biden’s personal Gestapo.” America has not even begun to reckon with the profound concern and even genuine fear that realization may be inspiring in ordinary voters.

Conclusive evidence showing that the raid was indeed politically motivated, unjustified, or illegal would certainly raise the corruption of law enforcement institutions to become one of the top midterm issues for a vast swath of voters. Such a development would again lend credence to Trump’s persistent warnings about the unholy alliance between the Democratic Party and embedded career bureaucrats in the intelligence community.

Another Major Foreign Policy Disaster

Democrats have already seen one precipitous polling dip following Biden’s disastrous evacuation from Afghanistan one year ago. Then, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine exposed how little America’s adversaries fear the United States under Biden’s leadership. At the same time, the Biden team has remained stubbornly committed to re-entering the disastrous 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal while China has grown more aggressive toward Taiwan, alienating U.S. allies around the globe.

Should Ukraine completely fall, China move on Taiwan, or some other similarly calamitous world event occur in the next eight weeks, Biden – and by extension the Democratic Party – will likely see a backlash from voters, who will instinctively understand that Biden’s weakness provoked disaster.

Major Economic Downturn

Inflation remains near historic highs, the country is effectively in a recession (despite Democrats’ attempts to redefine the term) and gas prices are still nearly 40% higher than when Biden took office—but there is still time for things to get worse before Election Day. Home sales were down more than 12% in July, indicating that there may be trouble ahead in the housing market. Several major hedge funds are also predicting a major slide in the stock market in the coming months. A sharp economic downturn in October could seal Democrats’ fate in November.


If these or any other unforeseen developments shake up the campaign between now and election day, Republicans must be ready to respond quickly and to capitalize on the opportunity. As we have been reminded time and again in recent cycles, the election is not over until it’s over—and circumstances often continue to shift dramatically right up until the voting stops. Given recent history, the smart money may well be on quite a few additional surprises before all is said and done.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_.

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6 months ago

Then Mitch McConnell needs to GO. He is a worthless, back-stabbing Rhino!

Robin W Boyd
6 months ago

This is why Republicans need to stop harping on ousting Biden. Let Biden continue to be as bad as he is, at least until after the mid-term elections.

6 months ago

Excellent point on a leak that Biden will not run; a game changer. It would be taken different ways by different groups, but overall I think it would benefit the Democrats. Some are already trying to distance themselves from him. The truth is much of the problems are not just Biden. These are Socialist Democratic policies and they are wrecking the nation. Unfortunately Republicans have done a poor job of messaging on what they are for and even less at taking any real action. The Democrats are good at sticking together and taking action… their problem is the actions are so bad for America.

6 months ago

Who knows what could happen. One thing we DO know is that these socialist/Marxist democrats will stop at NOTHING to keep their control and power. We’ve watched it in real time for two years.

6 months ago

I’m an old veteran that knows the fear of being surrounded and the shock of” fix bayonets”. Talk of China invading the west coast makes sense.Consider California. Liberal people will run to the beaches to greet them. Our military controlled by Biden. Who and how to stop them??? The only thing that has saved America is our guns. Taurus has quality guns at affordable prices. Hurry Trump. Thank for AMAC for this site love your magazine

Marie Langley
6 months ago

Watch out for voter FRAUD on election day or before. The Demoncrats are desperate to keep power and will do anything they can to keep it. They are evil, GODLESS, and corrupt. Let’s make sure that doesn’t happen, especially in swing states.

6 months ago

The margin of victory for Republicans must be LARGER than the margin of Dem voter fraud, for the Red Wave to materialize in November.

6 months ago

You can bet the democrats have a plan to disrupt the midterms as much as possible so they can manipulate the system.

6 months ago

I truly believe something major with huge ramifications is going to happen before the Midterm Elections and/or in 2023 that will change the dynamics of America’s future.

6 months ago

The United States has had two effective leaders in recent times and both of them were Democrats who became Republicans: Reagan and Trump. Neither man felt any guilt about his own identity: No white guilt, masculine guilt or Christian guilt. Let’s hope other Republicans understand this and proceed accordingly in the upcoming election. Donald Trump may be a rough diamond, but at least is is a diamond and he’s our diamond!

6 months ago

Any of these could happen, do not underestimate these communist. Fasten your seatbelts, it is going to get really evil and dirty. They will do unimaginable things between now and election day!

Donald Christian
6 months ago
Reply to  Felix

I pray for divine intervention. We need His help and He needs more to proclaim Him as Savior. Please come Dear Jesus.

6 months ago
Reply to  Felix

Mar-A-Lago is just the start.

6 months ago

Beware! The DemonRats are expert cheaters.

6 months ago

The communist “Biden” party and administration are making sure money is printed at record speed and hoping runaway inflation doesn’t catch hold until after the elections. If they succeed in stealing enough offices to retain the House, the Senate, or both, our economy will be utterly and forever destroyed.

6 months ago

Dems will look to grant amnesty for the illegals crossing into our country every day to add additional voters. That’s an October surprise that needs more attention than it’s getting. But the GOP has got to get a coherent and effective message out to voters like yesterday, and it needs to be in anticipation of any and all the Communist’s dirty tricks.

6 months ago

Yes, these 5 are all good surprises, but what about threats that are not controlled by man like a volcano going off. Yellowstone is screaming right now, but the USGS says there is nothing to see here.

6 months ago

Hunter’s “sketchy” business dealings? More like MAJOR racketeering kickbacks from Ukraine on-going for several years (not just the war), sweet deals from Red China, any countries that get USA aid money. Exact same maneuverings that BOTH Clintons engaged in!

Jim D.
6 months ago

It’s ALL about Democrats! Not just Biden! He’s just the dupe with the pen! Savy voters understand this.
So, announcing that he won’t run in 2024 will probably do very little to swing the midterms.

6 months ago

Politically incorrect.

6 months ago

The lockdowns in China are suspected to be cover for military equipment movements – to prevent prying eyes reporting to foreign governments. China has converted their entire economy to wartime demands. They are readying for war. Those thousands of supposedly inactive merchant and cargo ships sitting well offshore are militarily prepped, loaded, and ready to go. J.R.Nyquist says they will invade the West Coast of the U.S. Cargo containers are armed with Club-K cruise missiles. Why is nobody talking about this, investigating this, asking about this, or verifying this info?

6 months ago
Reply to  Jim

Totally unbelievable…but probably true.

Karen Knowles
6 months ago
Reply to  Jim

Praying you are wrong about all this!

Jeff Savlov
6 months ago

When are Republicans going to put the blame for our economic woes on the real culprit, the Democrat Party and their chosen legislators. Let’s stop spending so much money on individual candidates. Take part of each minute of commercial time educating voters of the follies of the party and how their votes will either allow them to continue the rape of our republic or send them packing and allow the Republican Party, through their elected representatives, right this sinking ship and put the country back on the track of recovery. Tell voters that allowing Democrats to remain in the position to stall or scuttle the necessary corrective policies will only put each and every voter, their children, and yes their grandchildren deeper in debt for decades to come.

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