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Money / Politics

Fake News: Marketwatch and Drudge Are Wrong, 500,000 Jobs Not Lost in 2018, the Economy Created 2.2 Million Jobs Last Year

economy

You might have noticed some alarmist reporting from Marketwatch and the Drudge Report implying the economy lost 500,000 jobs last year.

“JOB GROWTH REDUCED BY 501,000,” reported Drudge, linking to a Marketwatch report that was headlined, “U.S. created 500,000 fewer jobs since 2018 than previously reported, new figures show.”

But these headlines are quite misleading. It’s fake news.

Overall, the economy created 2.2 million jobs in 2018 if you look at the household survey, which matches any new estimate in the establishment survey that might be derived from routine benchmark adjustments by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to population estimates.

The unemployment data we get every month is based on two surveys, one of households and the other of businesses, to determine who is working and where they are working. As part of those surveys, the Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises their datasets based on more complete information that comes in later.

This is a part of the normal comings and goings of the agency, and it is irresponsible for Marketwatch and Drudge to ring alarm bells when they should know better. These survey revisions do not change whether people have jobs or where they have jobs in the aggregate, it changes the assumptions that are made in the survey, and they certainly do not show job losses.

It is normal for the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ to revise the benchmarks for the non-seasonally adjusted establishment employment survey, modifying the assumed population levels from the initial survey, which then gets finalized the following year and the data smoothed out across the dataset into its reported seasonally adjusted form.

For example, for the March 2018 revision, the preliminary estimate showed the establishment survey had 43,000 more jobs than initially reported, but by the time the survey was finalized, it ended up showing 16,000 fewer jobs than initially reported.

The worst scenario from these standard revisions, assuming the preliminary estimate holds, would be to simply bring the establishment survey more in line with the household survey, both which are really, really good, showing the Trump economy has produced about 5.2 million jobs since Jan. 2017 instead of the 5.7 million initially reported in the establishment survey. Instead of producing 223,000 jobs a month in 2018, it might have instead produced 185,000, but we’ll find out for sure in February when the final number is posted.

Overall, the economy created 2.2 million jobs in 2018 if you look at the household survey, which matches the new estimate in the establishment survey.

That doesn’t mean we lost any jobs and Marketwatch and Drudge’s click-bait headlines to the contrary do their readers’ a disservice.

In fact, 2018 produced the strongest economic growth reported since 2005, and unemployment seen during the Trump administration is the lowest it has been in the past 50 years, and pending a reversal, those are the numbers the American people will be considering as the 2020 presidential cycle nears.

Originally published at Daily Torch.

Reprinted with permission from - Americans for Limited Government - by Rick Manning

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Gary Fisher

The economy, from Main Street to Wall Street, depends heavily on trust. If people can be persuaded to think things might go poorly tomorrow, they respond in ways which make that happen. The Great Depression resulted not from money magically disappearing, but from a loss of confidence which then affected the entire country, and the world. Those who hold to a different view of America’s future than President Trump and those who voted for him are well aware that a loss of confidence in the economy can sour voters on a President they previously supported, and to them – the “New World Order” types, the socialists, the RINO Republicans and more – bringing down the economy might seem like a small price to pay for bringing down a President they hate, and his “deplorable” voters.

Stephen Russell

Pres Trump declared Trade War on China: Bring US firms Home, & dont bring back Fentanyl into the US either.
Disinvest in China

Glenn Lego

Seems the mainstream media is trying to create a recession just so they can discredit our president. Some talking heads on tv say they hope we have a recession. It wouldn’t bother them but it would sure bother the rest of us “deplorables” and”smelly Walmart shoppers “ some of them would call us.

Rick J.

I’m surprised Drudge is usually accurate. The president has done an excellent job reviving the economy. His
confronting China is long overdue and would do better if the dems would lend support. China’s goal is world
domination. If we don’t stop them now, they will succeed. If the US isn’t willing to accept some short term pain, there is going to be a world of long term hurt. Yes, it is now or never, and the never will fall on our
children and grandchildren.

Mimi

What is it that people don’t get about FAIR TRADE!!! Quit harassing President Trump – he knows what he is doing. It will take time to shake out. Another thing, it is good for people who are dollar cost averaging into their retirement funds with stock market purchases at regular intervals – you hope to buy on the dips, so you get more shares. I detest the press when they get all bent out of shape when the market goes down several hundred points. The press talks in a gloomy tone – stating market dips – when they should be encouraging about the benefits of buying low. I am retired and have been diversified and feel secure. Always purchased a basket of diverse mutual funds during my working years via a 401 K account.

Brenda Blunt

The markets are going to be alright. Let the President do what is right. China can start paying USA to do business with. China doesn’t own the USA. Business needs to return to the US. Business should not receive any tax Incentives for doing business out of USA.

Phyllis Armeli

I have noticed many negative news items on the Drudge Report lately about the country and President Trump and his administration. I have gone to his website for many years but no more. There are many others who report fairly. Mr. Drudge, you have changed and not for the better and this latest report about the job loss clearly defines your current position. Farewell!

Edward Jackson

For most of 2019, Matt Drudge has drifted to the ‘dark side’ and accepted the
democrat story line. I noticed this several months ago. He slowly and surely
stopped linking to conservative news sites, and increased his links to CNN,
MSNBC, and the rest of the lying MSM. FoxNews and Market Watch have been
doing more negative reporting of the President, and conservatives by becoming
a mouthpiece repeating what CNN and MSNBC tell them to. Almost all of it has
been lies.

Morty Tupperman

The voting public will believe what is repeated over and over and over again. 2020 will be an uphill battle for President Trump and VP Pence…

Lloyd 1954

Buy American! It’s not hard!

Hdrydr

Matt Drudge became FAKE NEWS. Thank God his Drudge Report is history.

Mimi

Lloyd, I agree that we should buy American. But I don’t agree that it’s not hard to do. Every time I purchase things I need, or gift items, I look at the labels and most of the time it’s made in China. I’ll be thrilled to buy more American made goods. They may cost a little more, but they are made better and last much longer. China doesn’t seem to believe in quality control!! I hope our companies come back and manufacture good ole MADE IN AMERICA products!!!!! Trump 2020!! He isn’t trying to line his own pockets, he’s truly trying to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! Let’s all help him in 2020 to keep going!!!

The OLD Warhorse

Figures don’t lie, BUT, liars figure!

Greg Russell

In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act. George Orwell

Be careful where you get your news kiddies-if it comes from ABC, CBS, CNN, CNBC, etc., you know before you read it, it`s not the truth.

Morbious

Drudge has some sort of bug up his behind. I started noticing it two yrs ago. I now use whatfinger. They are the successor to drudge, who has run his course.

D Dironualdo

Another scare tactic from the left!! ! They will do anything , say anything !!
Only this time they are deliberately trying to destroy our economy which hurts us all!! Talk about hate!! If they end up destroying our economy who is going to pay for all the feee stuff they are promising?? Not them!!!! People wake up before it’s too late ..

Diana

This garbage needs to be prosecuted for trying to discourage the American People, but We the People know these fake news leftist socialist reporters politicians are just what they try and pull off FAKE lying dogs

Robert

The fake news is becoming a real problem, because most people don’t follow through to see what is fake and what is true. They accept what they read as being truthful, when some of the time it is not. This needs to change, and our government needs to be involved in this problem. The problem is that they will not become involved in this problem.

James

The Grudge Report fits right in with other fake news outlets. An overwhelming dislike for President Trump sets their agenda. Not that long ago Americans had no choice but to get their news from these fake news manipulators. Now, other news sources are exposing them with a bright light.

Dale Hammond

That is not only fake news, it is preditated LYING,.and the Dems don’t give a Boulder Dam.