from – IJR Review – by Chris Enloe
Despite the 2016 presidential election being 18 months away, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Institute of Politics says 43 of 50 states have already decided which party they will back in the Electoral College.
Sabato unveiled his 2016 predictions on Thursday, when he said only 7 states are true “swing states.” He told the Daily Mail:
“Of the 50 states, 40 or more are almost set in stone politically. Just seven are true swing states.
According to Sabato’s map, Republicans have a lock on 20 states — with 4 more states either leaning towards the GOP or likely GOP states. The Democrats on the other hand have 19 states on their side.
Don’t let those numbers fool you. While the GOP may have more states on their column, the Democrats have many more electoral votes locked up than the GOP – 247 to 206. This could mean that Democrats are only 23 votes away from winning the election.
The seven states which Sabato says will decide the election:
- New Hampshire
Those 7 states hold a combined 85 Electoral College votes.
Sabato said that two of those states are must-wins for the GOP:
“If the Republicans want to win, they absolutely need a ticket that can carry Ohio and Florida.”
Sabato believes that if Democrats want to win, they only really need to carry Florida, even if Republicans capture the other six toss-up states.
Democrats have history on their side when it comes to winning Florida, as they’ve won the state in the last two presidential elections. However in 2000 and 2004, the GOP carried the coveted state.