AMAC Exclusive – By Herald Boas
It now appears almost inevitable that after the Biden-Harris current and first term in office, very many Democrats will be seeking a new ticket for their party in 2024. Of course, circumstances can change, but considering their extreme unfavourability ratings now, the crises they are currently facing and likely will face, and the fact that Joe Biden would be 82-years-old at the beginning of a second term, the prospects for Biden-Harris in 2024 are dim indeed.
Vice President Kamala Harris has been so unimpressive so far, and her poll numbers so low, that the likelihood of her being nominated in Biden’s place in 2024 is also very low.
So who, then, might be nominated, and how might the Democrats accomplish such a rare and politically acrobatic process? The last truly one full-term president not to be renominated for a second term either voluntarily or not was Rutherford Hayes in 1884. (Several vice presidents who succeeded to the presidency on the death of the president and then had a full team of their own before leaving office were Teddy Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, and Lyndon Johnson.) Not renominating a sitting first term president would thus be unprecedented for the past 140 years.
Mr. Biden could announce his decision not to run in late 2023 because of health reasons or because it will be obvious he could not be renominated. That is the most likely scenario. Until then, as he is doing now, he will likely continue to say he is running in 2024 to avoid being perceived as a “lame duck” too early.
Another possible scenario would be for Mr. Biden and his supporters to believe they can win in 2024, and run again — perhaps with a new vice president. Biden would then likely face an intraparty challenge — probably from his left (but it could also come from Joe Manchin to his right). Win or lose, Biden would enter the general election severely weakened, as did Gerald Ford in 1976 and Jimmy Carter in 1980.
If Biden loses renomination or chooses not to run, who might the Democrats run for president in 2024?
The commonplace belief today is that the Democratic Party has no “bench.” That’s not exactly fair. They do have some notable personalities, including several who surfaced in 2020, but most of them are at varying shades of the more radical left — which is unlikely to provide a winning ticket in 2024. The two leading moderates, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, would seem unacceptable to party’s progressives. A new figure might also emerge, especially if they have success in an otherwise likely GOP wave year in the 2022 mid-term elections.
Vice President Harris would likely run if Joe Biden elected not to, but like Henry Wallace and Dan Quayle in earlier cycles, she may not find much traction in her own party. As happened in 2020, the field of Democrats is likely to be very large if Biden does not run, perhaps more than 20 major figures.
In any event, the substantial advantage enjoyed by a president running for re-election will likely not be available to Democrats in 2024. Of course, Republicans have the challenge of determining their own ticket, which could be led again by Donald Trump, or by one from the deep GOP bench, which includes Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Mike Pence, Marco Rubio, and Tim Scott, among many others. This too may be a more heavily contested primary than many observers are expecting, given the vulnerability of the Democrat ticket.
The current level of decline in support for President Biden can be seen in a recent poll by a usually Democratic-leaning pollster in which Donald Trump now leads Joe Biden by double digits. That’s a poll of the popular vote. The former President himself released a poll by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio last week that showed Trump up dramatically over Biden in virtually every major swing state.
If Republicans do enjoy the dimensions of wave election victories in 2022, especially if they regain control of Congress, the dilemma for the Democrats to determine their presidential ticket next time would likely enhance GOP prospects in 2024. History would seem to be on their side as their opponents effect the dumping of their own president and vice president.
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Biden’s goose is cooked!!!
It is no longer the Democrat party, it is truly now the libsocialist party. They have gone full on Socialist.
Finally now loads of Democrats are leaving the party as they have gone too far with this. Even for Democrats. This is America, and we have to fight to keep our country free and for the people.
The Democrap Party is now the party of Communism… not Democracy. And I think a significant majority of American citizens are reading it that way. If the Nation can survive it, I truly believe the present OBAMAnation of Governance by Rule will be cast out.
They do not need to serve four years. God help us.
2022? Beware, Dems don’t get removed from office when they count the votes. Didn’t 2020 teach us anything?
There are only two kinds of people in this divided nation at this time. You are either an American-Patriot or an American-Parasite. Outside of Mansion and Cinema, I’ve not been able to find a single American-Patriot in that oozing den of drooling parasites known as the democrat party. Such a shame.
From Tweets to Twits all in one year. I prefer the tweets…
I seriously doubt he remembers making that statement.
The democrats know Biden will not make another election. He obviously could not continue on with the mental abilities that he has. As far as who would run in his place, I for one could care less. I will NEVER vote for a socialist/communist for our government. All those sheep that cannot figure out the realities right in front of their faces and continue to support these tyrants don’t deserve to be called Americans.
We’ll see if this is just a rebranding of the same crookedness!!!
Said nothing about this idiot being impeached for crimes and then prosecuted for some of the many crimes already known.
Where is our criminal justice system? ⚖ EQUAL justice under our laws has disappeared into a 2 tier justice system.
If the Dems were smart they’d 25th Biden. And yes this elevates Harris. They then pick a VP the Republicans would consent to. After that they impeach Harris, thus putting the new VP as President and nominate another VP. If they pick wisely they could have a ticket capable of running in 2024. As it is they’re going to be in disarray.
A wild card option is Trump runs for a House seat for Florida. When the Republicans win the majority in the House they elect him as Speaker. Then if they get enough seats in the Senate they impeach and remove both Biden and Harris. Then as Speaker Trump becomes President. In that this can’t occur until after 2022 he’d still be able to run for President in 2024.
Your statement “The last truly one full-term president not to be renominated for a second term either voluntarily or not was Rutherford Hayes in 1884” is not quite the whole truth. Hayes choose to be a one-term president. “He had promised upon entering office that he would seek one term only, thus freeing him, he said, to be thoroughly independent in his actions. When friends tried to convince him to run for a second term, he adamantly refused to even consider it.” (The American President, p. 151).
1880, not 1884. Hayes was elected by the committee in 1876, after a disputed election and due to the “Compromise of 1876” did not run for re-election in 1880.
I guess the dems can do anything they want, huh? Hijack and election, with the two most incompetent candidates ever in US history, then when things are not going “their way” get rid of both of them and put in most evil people in the positions. I know Covent Leader the Hildebeast is waiting with baited breathe! She is thinking my DESTINY, MY DESTINY, is about to be brought to its completion! FINALLY ALL I HAVE WORKED FOR IS GOING TO SEE IT’S ZENITH IN ME, ME, ME, ME! I WILL MAKE GOD PAY FOR WHAT HE TRIED TO DO TO ME. WELL,JEZEBEL, MAY YOU GET EVERYTHING YOU DESERVE FROM THE CREATOR GOD OF THE UNIVERSE! THE PIT OF HELL IS OPENING UP FOR US!
God will continue to expose the evil in this party and government. The tide is building and will overtake this evil soon. Pray hard. The very future of our country is a stake.
Why ask God to do what you can do for yourself. My thought is “Wake up Americans, and don’t let a rigged election and the Party behind it do it again … ever.”
Today the numbers say Trump wins over Biden. Ok I’ll agree with that. Problem is, I don’t see Biden as the nominee. So now we are back to the fake news about Trump and the terrible election process. I want to see Trump involved but he really needs to evaluate his last campaign. Whoever runs as the republican candidate will have to have more support. Last time to many RHINOS did not support trump as the nominee. So let’s start in NOV 22 and vote the RHINOS out.
Right on brother. That’s the first step.
AMEN! RHINOS Need to go! I have historically supported Lindsey Graham from SC. No more. If he is the best the Republicans can offer, I’ll vote 3rd party.
Do we actually believe Biden and Harris were lawfully elected. What a joke.
Nope, d0efiantly not. These dismal poll numbers are evidence that they stole the election. During the election, Trump had a higher approval rating than Biden did at the time.
I don’t think the commie Dems have anyone who is smart enough or honest enough to run our country. Still waiting for a coup.
The DEMs are stuck with these two awful people Biden/Harris. And, yes, we the people, too.
Whomever the GOP puts in the White House, wouldn’t it be great to have Ted Cruz as Attorney General? We (Republicans) not only need to clean up our current mess, but also fix the corrupt laws that have been passed, and agencies who have too much power.
This useless article was written by a European with a socialist viewpoint.