AMAC Exclusive – By Andrew Abbott

In the wake of Biden’s spy balloon debacle and as top military leaders warn that an armed conflict with China could be on the horizon, questions are mounting – from both Republicans and Democrats – about President Biden’s weak response to growing aggression from Beijing.

Nearly three weeks after Air Force pilots shot down a Chinese spy balloon that had traversed over some of the country’s most sensitive military installations for more than a week, the Biden administration has still failed to give an adequate accounting of what happened. Although the military said they began tracking the balloon over Alaska on January 28, the public was not made aware of the threat until days later when social media users began filming the object over Montana. But instead of dispatching the balloon then, Biden chose to wait until it had traveled all the way across the country, finally downing it over the Atlantic Ocean.

The administration has said that it waited so long to dispatch the balloon out of concern that falling debris could hurt people – an explanation that has drawn significant skepticism given that the balloon traveled over some of the emptiest parts of the United States and Canada. Many are also asking why the Biden administration waited until the balloon was discovered by private citizens before disclosing the threat.

Those concerns were shared by lawmakers in Congress, who passed a resolution on February 9 both condemning China for its actions and requiring the Biden administration to “keep Congress informed on the incident.” Notably, the resolution passed the House with an astounding 419 votes in favor and no votes against – a clear message from House Democrats that they believed Biden’s response to be insufficient.

Some Democrats were even more explicit in their criticism of Biden. Rep. David Scott of Georgia said that “they [China] got us on this one” and that Biden’s failure to shoot down the balloon earlier in its flight “sends a powerful message to both our enemies and our friends.” Democrat Senator Jon Tester of Montana, who just announced his reelection campaign, has similarly slammed Biden for allowing the balloon to travel over his state, saying that he is “demanding answers” from the administration.

A Chinese spy balloon violating U.S. airspace would be concerning on its own, but it is made even more alarming by the fact that some military leaders are warning that conflict with China could be closer than most Americans expect. Just one day before the spy balloon crossed into the country, Air Force General Mike Minihan released a memo to officers predicting that America and China would be at war by 2025.

“My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” the memo reads. “[Chinese President Xi Jinping] secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”

General Minihan is the commander of the U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command, one of the Air Force’s nine highest command levels which oversees aerial refueling and airlift operations. The command played a significant role in the evacuation of Kabul following the collapse of the Afghan government.

Many Biden administration officials have dismissed the memo as simple hyperbole intended to “motivate” the troops under his command. However, historically when senior military officials use similar rhetoric against countries with which America had an adversarial relationship, they were met with instant condemnation from the Pentagon and senior political officials. But in this case, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby meekly stated, “our view is a conflict is not inevitable, and not certainly not on that particular timeline.” Meanwhile, the Pentagon has yet to comment on the memo but did confirm its authenticity.

Growing Chinese aggression toward Taiwan has provided another reason for concern. As its spy balloon was traversing the United States, Chinese jets also crossed into Taiwanese airspace – just the latest such provocation from the Chinese military. President Biden has said repeatedly that if China attempted an invasion of Taiwan, the United States would defend the island nation.

Biden’s leadership appears to have exacerbated all of these tensions. Emboldened by the U.S. military failure in Afghanistan, China is growing more aggressive in the Pacific and even testing American resolve by sending spy balloons over the United States. While Russia bears ultimate responsibility for the Ukraine war, Biden’s failure to prevent the conflict and his response to it has served to drive Russia and China closer together.

For the White House, none of that is good news. If some elected Democrats are openly questioning Biden’s leadership on China, it’s a safe bet most Americans are as well.

Andrew Abbott is the pen name of a writer and public affairs consultant with over a decade of experience in DC at the intersection of politics and culture.

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