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Climate Change Alarmism Is ‘Garbage In, Garbage Out,’ Retired NASA Physicist Says

NASA climate change global warmingHOUSTON—Unvalidated climate models that don’t correspond with physical data and the requirements of the scientific method contribute to unfounded climate alarmism, a retired NASA physicist said at the Heartland Institute’s recent America First Energy Conference.

Since America’s national security depends in part on energy security, unsubstantiated claims about global warming that prevent policymakers from making “rational decisions” with regard to the development of U.S. energy resources have become a national security threat, said Hal Doiron, a 16-year NASA veteran.

The “propaganda” underpinning climate alarmism is “causing tremendous political bottlenecks” that prevent government officials from “doing the right thing” on energy, he said.

Doiron, who helped develop the Apollo Lunar Module’s landing dynamics software during NASA’s moon missions, also expressed concern that the U.S. military has been directly affected by climate alarmist claims separated from sound science.

He criticized the Navy for “preparing for something that is unreasonable and would cost too much money” in the form of “extreme sea-level rise,” which has not been borne out by rigorous scientific study.

Doiron defines unvalidated climate models as those that do not agree with physical data. Public policy and military planning should be based only on models validated by physical data, he said.

“At NASA, we have a policy: You can’t make a design decision on a spacecraft or rocket that is not validated,” he said. “You don’t make critical decisions based on ‘garbage in, garbage out.’ Yet our government has been doing that with respect to climate alarm, because too many academics in universities are writing papers, drawing conclusions from models that don’t agree with physical data.”

Doiron is part of a group called “The Right Climate Stuff,” which includes engineers and scientists from across generations who have taken part in NASA’s most high-profile missions dating back to Apollo.

The group has produced its own “rigorous, earth surface temperature model using conservation-of-energy principles” that operates similarly to the way the surface and internal temperature of a spacecraft is analyzed, the Right Climate Stuff team explains on its website.

The reports produced from the analysis provide more “realistic projections” of the rise in the earth’s surface temperature over the next 150 years that show severe anti-fossil fuel regulations are not justified, Doiron and other former NASA team members contend.

“The scientific method requires that your hypothesis and theories be confirmed by physical data,” he said. “Computer models are not physical data, although I think many in academia don’t understand that.”

When unvalidated models are compared with validated models based on physical evidence, the validated models predict much less global warming, Doiron said. Moreover, the fact that unvalidated models often don’t agree with each other should be a “big, red flag.”

The retired NASA physicist is calling for U.S. policymakers to establish official data on two key metrics; specifically, “the true sensitivity of surface temperature to greenhouse gases” and a “reasonable projection of greenhouse emissions and [the] concentrations rise in our atmosphere.”

Doiron and his team have developed “a new metric” called “transient climate sensitivity,” which measures how much warming can be seen with a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the “way that it’s actually happening,” based on a “very small amount of [carbon dioxide] each year.”

That’s something that can be measured and verified against available physical data, he said. But because policymakers, including military planners, are not operating from reasonable projections, they are not in a position to adequately plan for the future, Doiron cautioned.

Another way climate change alarmism has worked to undermine America’s national security standing is by consuming too much of the military budget at the expense of military readiness, a top naval commander said during the panel discussion.

Adm. Thomas Hayward, who retired from the Navy as chief of naval operations and a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff after serving as commander of the 7th Fleet and commander in chief of the Pacific Fleet, also addressed the Heartland Institute’s energy conference and sounded concerns.

For the past six to eight years, Hayward said, climate change has been given “a higher priority” than the readiness of the Navy’s fleet. During that time, the Defense Department has spent $100 billion on “just climate change,” while the Navy has spent “$58 billion chasing what is called the ‘green fleet.’”

That means many Navy vessels are using biofuels, but Hayward wonders how many ports around the world are equipped to accommodate Navy vessels that rely on a high percentage of biofuels, and he worries how that would work in a combat situation.

This report has been modified to state correctly how much Hayward said the Defense Department has spent on climate change.

From - The Daily Signal - by Kevin Mooney

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Rik

First it was the alarm for the so-called Ice Age and when that didn’t happen it then became Global Warming which also didn’t happen, so then it morphed into “Climate Change”. Who knows what the alarmist snowflakes will call it next? … How about “Mother Nature’s Temperature Tantrums”??? … This is as phony as Gun Control, you know, where the city with the strictest Gun Control Laws, Ultra Liberal Chicago, has the highest gun murder rates in the nation. But the Progressively Loonitic Communist Democrats will staunchly defend their positions with (Un)Common Sense Loonatistics! (New Word). Solar Power anyone?

PaulE

Good article AMAC. Hal Doiron and his team at NASA appear to be following what is generally accepted empirical research and analysis methods that have been used in scientific research for hundreds of years. The way real science used to be validated or invalidated before the left decided science should be based on “settled consensus” of a small minority (77 out of 79 total respondents to a survey sent out by a grad student to over 3,000 scientists) gave the left a talking point to push Climate Change (formerly Global Warming in the 1990’s, formerly Global Cooling in the 1980’s, formerly The New Coming Ice Age going all the way back to the 1890’s). Nice to see Obama wasn’t able to completely subvert all aspects of governmental scientific research to push the hoax of man-made climate change. Also good to see a former Admiral speaking out about the incredible waste… Read more »

Martin

The only “Climate Change” we need to be alarmed of is the “Moral Climate Change in Congress”

Trap

Last 6-8 years. Yep that has obamma and his nutty cronies hands all over it. destroying America from within. smh

God Bless America
Trap

Hank

It seems the existing policy is a way of weakening the navy. How far does one have to “bring down America without firing a shot” before one can return to shooting more effectively? All the political spins put on “improving” America really seem to be aimed at diluting America.

Jim Hawkins

I predict that within the next 50,000 years there will be another ICE AGE! Nature has its own way of cleansing the earth. Congress, liberals and communists have their own way of bilking the world population in their attempt to destroy the concept of capitalism and free enterprise while lining their own pockets.

Hen3ry

But but but
If Climate Change Alarmism is Garbage
How will the Lefty Dems and the Deep State get and keep the power to control our world and lives ?
I’m sure Schumer and Pelosi and Pocohantas will devise something.
I guess that’s really why they didn’t make it to the meeting at the White House today.
They were all way too busy trying to subvert Trump and the election of 2016.

Leland Durst

If we are responsible for the current scare about climate change JUST WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE PAST GLACIERS (13 of which has left their marks in the layers of earth the archeologists are uncovering and the hundreds more over the 40,000 more. ) ??? I In my opinion this is just another SCARE our politicians are using to divert our attention from all our serious problems.

Wayne Peterkin

My take on Climate Change: There are many Chicken Littles making comments once again that every weather anomaly we see is the result of climate change, and by inference, man-made climate change. Today, hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria are used as their “proof”. Rather than quibble, I concede that this is an active and dangerous hurricane season. However, it follows several years of relatively calm seasons. Then there was 2005 when Katrina was followed right after by Rita, both of which did major damage on the Gulf Coast, and both of which made Cat 5 status before coming ashore as Cat 3’s. That season saw so many hurricanes and tropical storms that the naming list was exhausted and the National Hurricane Center started into alternative names. It may happen again next year. Tell survivors of Andrew, Camille, Audrey, Carla, etc. that the intensity of storms this year is far worse… Read more »

Tommy

Climate change is just a scam to get into the people’s coffers,

Big Ed

I graduated from college as an engineer and spent my working career using scientific principles. A few years back, the leftists told me that only Democrats knew and understood science, and handed me a treatise on global warming. The science, they said, was “settled” and there was no arguing against what they discovered. Even though their science was so corrupt that they had to rename it every couple of years, it was none-the-less, settled. I regularly used many different principles in my work, oddly global warming was the only theory I was aware of that was settled. Amazingly, since Trump was elected president I am seeing what I recognize as scientific study again. Actual research involving data collection, fitting data to theories, and attempts made at producing a level of predictability to the theory. I am amazed that the know nothing conservatives have brought back a form of scientific study… Read more »

Joe

All good comments, but this is all about driving a political end-the destruction of our economy, traditional values, country, and current political system. The leftists do not like industry, publicly traded companies, capitalism, and simply consumption by the public. They worship mother nature not god. They dislike people that produce kids. They are killing the middle using climate change as a tool to limit population. Look at a place like California. They are creating a 2 class system and are perfectly fine with it-the wealthy and poor. The bizarre thing, is they are letting poor mostly uneducated illegals into our country that under their rules hurt the environment. I would surmise because they vote their agenda is way to kill the middle class. These loons have even taken it to the level of teaching our kids not to eat certain foods like beef because cattle gas creates to much carbon.

Tom

‘Global Warming’ is a misconception of natural movement of our planet used to have Countries donate money to the Global Warming accounts overseen by Countries of Europe and the USA. That money then disappears. Open the overseas bank accounts of our Congressmen and Senators and you will trace portions of the money. The EU leaders take their personal share as well. Stop them.

Mike T

Saying GIGO gives an excuse to the criminals who intentionally created and perpetuate the lie of anthropogenic global climate change. What should be written is that the so-called, self-proclaimed “elites” created the LIE in order to manipulate the masses while enriching themselves personally to the tune of trillions stolen from taxpayers as is their standard MO. This claim can be factually proven by reading a document a NGO called The Club of Rome published in the mid 1970’s titled “The First Global Revolution” in which they openly admit they were searching for a cause they could use to manipulate the masses. In discussing their scheme to defraud and control the ignorant masses, they actually state the common enemy of humanity is man! If that is not enough to convince the skeptic, let us examine the scheme the governments decided upon to combat this evil known as climate change. Governments decided… Read more »

JLE

Yeah, this is simply an Obama-Era holdover, where Obama imposed unjustified, costly, burdensome restrictions based on the climate-change scam in order to herd the US into the world-government corral. Simply returning to efficient fuels would be an easy fix.

mike

How do you climate change folks explain the ice age? Do you blame it on fred flintstone and barney rubble? 30 years ago you were all braying about how our crops are all going to die because of global cooling. You should call it gullible warming, the gift that keeps on stealing. GIGO!

SARGE

All this leftist, globalist, elitist,tree hugging BS is coming to an end. The United States didn’t bite. Came awfully close, but didn’t bite. Gee, ivanka wanted the paris accord but daddy said no sweetheart, think of something else you want.

Rudy Dagnello

In today’s climate, the truth is hardly relevant, because it doesn’t stand alone.

Kim

Have you noticed over the last few years that weather reports rarely include the AVERAGE daily temperatures? This plays into the climate change hysteria by ignoring the fact that fluctuations over time determine the average. This short-term data collection is predicted to get us to pay attention only to the wild changes in daily conditions. THIS IS CALLED WEATHER. You’d have to be looking at data over a very long period of time in order to declare any negligible changes in CLIMATE.
Even the East Anglia data hoax is hardly ever spoken of today. And to imagine how much of the cost of sequestration could have been alleviated if those funds had not been wasted on this nonsense!

Leland Durst

climate change alarmism