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Can Republicans Shake the Democrat’s Grip on New Mexico?

Posted on Friday, July 22, 2022
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by Daniel Berman
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53 Comments
New Mexico

AMAC Exclusive – By Daniel Berman

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) of New Mexico

While New Mexico is considered by many to be a solidly “blue state,” having voted for the Democrat in every presidential election since 2004 (and having failed to do so in that year by only the narrowest of margins) there are some subtle signs that the party’s grip over the state may be weakening. While the state does not have a U.S. Senate race in 2022, incumbent Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham faces a fierce challenge from Republican Mark Ronchetti. Meanwhile, the results of redistricting do not rule out the possibility of a one or two seat gain for Republicans in U.S. House races, particularly as shifts among Hispanic voters add a wholly new and unpredictable aspect to the contests. Finally, given the current political environment and Joe Biden’s historic unpopularity, Republicans may indeed be poised for major gains – but they will have to work for them.

The situation in New Mexico contrasts somewhat with that of another key Southwestern state, Nevada, which AMAC Newsline profiled last week. With a heavily working-class Latino population, in a state hard hit by COVID-19 lockdowns, Democratic prospects there looked grim – not least because local trends had already been running against the Democratic Party for over a decade. There is a decent chance that even in a neutral year, Democrats would find themselves in trouble in Nevada.

New Mexico, despite similar demographics, is a different story. The most promising opportunity for Republicans appears to be the governor’s race, as Ronchetti, a former television meteorologist, lost the 2020 Senate race by a shockingly close 6% margin while Biden won the state by 10%. Polls show the race with Grisham as too close to call, but with Grisham stuck in the mid-40% range. Meanwhile, efforts by Democrats in the redistricting process to set themselves up to win all three of the states’ congressional seats have created a possibility that Republicans could manage that feat instead.

Drilling down a bit into the statistical history, it becomes clear that Republicans nonetheless face a tough climb in New Mexico. It becomes clear why when the last five presidential elections are considered in relation to the national margins. (These are somewhat obscured in 2016 by the strong performance by former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who won 9% on the Libertarian Party ticket.)

Year New Mexico Result National Margin Difference
2000 47.9%-47.8% Gore 48.4%-47.9% Gore R+.4%
2004 49.1%-48.9% Bush 50.7%-48.3% Bush D+2.2%
2008 56.9%-41.8% Obama 52.9%-45.6% Obama D+7.8%
2012 53%-42.8% Obama 51%-47.2% Obama D+6.6%
2016 48.3%-40% Clinton 48%-45.9% Clinton D+6.2%
2020 54.3%-43.5% Biden 51.3%-46.8% Biden D+6.3%

As with Nevada, the Democratic advantage peaked with Obama’s landslides among Latino voters in 2008. Since that election, the state’s politics appear to be static according to the topline numbers. This perception, however, is misleading. Substantial change has taken place, but unlike in Nevada, where the combined Democratic margins from Reno’s Washoe County and Las Vegas’ Clark County actually declined in raw votes from 2012 to 2020, in New Mexico, Democrats have managed to milk the growth in the fast growing inner suburbs, powered by a tech-industry exodus from California, to increase their raw vote margins. The result has been to cancel out Republican gains elsewhere in the state since 2008, in effect freezing in place the overall partisanship. The influence of Bernalillo County, home to the state’s largest city, Albuquerque, and its neighbor in Santa Fe is evident when we examine how it has behaved since 2000.

Year New Mexico Result Bernalillo County Bernalillo Vote Margin Santa Fe County Santa Fe Margin Total Margin, Bernalillo + Santa Fe Statewide Margin R Margin Rest of State
2000 47.9%-47.8% Gore 48.7%-46.6% Gore D + 4,212 64.7%-28.3% Gore D+18,043 D+22,255 D + 326 R+21,929
2004 49.1%-48.9% Bush 51.5%-47.3% Kerry D+11,802 71.1% – 28.7% Kerry D+27,608 D+39,410 R+5,988 R+45,398
2008 56.9%-41.8% Obama 60%-38.7% Obama D+61,045 76.9% – 21.9% Obama D+39,760 D+108,805 D+125,590 D+16,785
2012 53%-42.8% Obama 55.6%-39.3% Obama D+44,331 73.5%-22.3% Obama D+35,372 D+79,703 D+79,547 R+256
2016 48.3%-40% Clinton 52.2%%-34.5% Clinton D+48,719 71.1%-20.1% Clinton D+36,361 D+85,080 D+65,567 R+19,513
2020 54.3%-43.5% Biden 61%-36.6% Biden D+77,622 76.1%-22.3% Biden D+44,201 D+121,823 D+99,720 R+22,103

As is evident, while Democrats have always done well in Santa Fe/Albuquerque, that was not enough to win the state in either 2000 or 2004. It was also not needed in 2008, when Obama would have won the state even had no votes been cast in either of the two counties. Starting from 2012, however, Democrats became dependent on their margins in the area to win statewide. What made the difference compared with Nevada is that they generally managed to increase them, unlike Democrats with Las Vegas.

Does this mean Democrats are safe in New Mexico? It was not enough to stop Republican Susana Martinez from winning two terms as Governor in 2010 and 2014. So Republicans can win statewide. But generally, they need to be able to appeal in Albuquerque and Santa Fe, and not just run up the totals in rural areas.

Enter Mark Ronchetti, the GOP candidate for governor. Ronchetti was a longtime meteorologist for KRQE, the local television station in Albuquerque. Those links paid off when he ran for Senate in 2020. Although he lost statewide by 6%, compared to Trump’s loss by 10%, a large portion of the difference was made up in Bernalillo and Santa Fe Counties, where he lost 57%-41% as opposed to 61%-36%, and in the suburban Sandoval County, where he lost 49%-48% while Trump lost 53%-45%. With Joe Biden deeply unpopular and gubernatorial races being less partisan than those for Senate, he seems set to break through. Polls show Grisham, who won by 14% in 2018, leading by an average of only 3.5% this year.

There are other factors which are driving Democrats down in the state as well. If one of the reasons for the trend toward Democrats in the suburbs in recent cycles was a perception that the Republican Party had gone too far to the right, then in 2022 the reverse is true for Democrats, not just nationally but locally with concern over “woke” issues, energy, and inflation.

New Mexico Democrats have historically been moderate, but in the leadup to the 2020 elections, progressive challengers associated with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez targeted seven incumbent Democrats, including the long-time chair of the state Senate Finance Committee, John Arthur Smith, who was defeated along with five of his colleagues after a 32-year tenure. The result was to usher in one of the most left-wing two year periods in state history. Grisham, with the support of the legislature, has advertised New Mexico as an abortion haven for out-of-state patients, and sought to make cash payments to “offset” inflation, a policy certain to worsen the state’s labor shortage and further fuel the inflation it purports to halt. This extremism already caused one Democratic State Senator, Jacob Candelaria, to quit the party after suing the Governor.

Among Candelaria’s complaints was an aggressively partisan redistricting map for the state’s three U.S. House seats, which sought to target first-term Republican Yvette Harrell by splitting Albuquerque three ways. Candelaria asserted this move denied both Albuquerque and Hispanic residents a voice in Congress in favor of using their votes to elect another partisan Democrat. Under the old map, Joe Biden won two districts and Donald Trump one. Under the new map, Biden won all three.

The backlash may help power Ronchetti to the governor’s mansion as a perceived moderate alternative to Grisham’s hyper-partisan, hyper-liberal governance. But Democrats may have opened themselves to a wider backlash as well. By purging their own moderates at a time when they have already spread themselves thin, they have left themselves vulnerable to a disastrous drop in support. This is evident in the new U.S. House map. Under the old map, Biden won the 1st district by 23% and the 3rd by 17%. Under the new map, he wins the three districts by 15%, 6% and 10%, while Ronchetti lost them in his 2020 senate race by 5%, 3%, and 8%. Democrats arguably did a decent job sticking the swingiest regions into the most heavily Democratic 1st district, but by cutting their own margins, they exposed themselves to a potential Republican gain of one or even two seats.

On a wider level, New Mexico Democrats chose to bet on the inflexibility of New Mexico’s partisanship across the board since 2020. They bet they could purge their own moderates, spread their supporters thin in new congressional maps, and govern as if the state was Washington or California. 2022 will provide a test of whether they are right – or whether Republicans can break the stalemate in New Mexican politics which has existed since 2012 and sweep the state.

Daniel Berman is a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics. He also writes as Daniel Roman.

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Robert
Robert
1 year ago

All these questions! Can Republicans do this can Republicans win here and win there? Straight up? Vote in person, no early voting, clean up voter rolls, democrat operatives can be involved in the counting, hand counting but can’t touch any ballots lol. In other words no cheating in any way and the results would be in my opinion, democrats would not win a single election for any seat in any state in any office.

MBlanc46
MBlanc46
1 year ago

New Mexico’s gone. Colorado is gone. It looks as if Arizona is gone. At least at the presidential level, those states will never again vote for a Republican. The same with Virginia and Georgia. How many more Third World invaders will it take before Florida and Texas are gone? Anyone who is not thinking about break-up is not facing reality

fredwriter1961
fredwriter1961
1 year ago

bring back literacy tests to keep the ignorant from voting A voter id law coupled with a mandatory mental health exam will get rid of a lot of the ignorant voters who keep Democrats in power

George Rivera Jr
George Rivera Jr
1 year ago

Hopefully, the residents of New Mexico have had enough of the tax-&-spend liars in Sante Fe.

Myrna Wade
Myrna Wade
1 year ago

The fight between extremists is comparable to what makes churches split: people become so sure that they know what is best that they insist that either we are saved by grace or works and whoever doesn’t see it their way is hell bound. They don’t pay attention to the command judge not! God is the judge. This one-sided persecution of January 6, 2021, flag waving intruders continually reminds us that there is such a double standard: one view by the elite and famous rulers and quite another by mere mortals. I hope that when republicans become the majority, there will be a new day, and everybody will be able to speak his mind without fear.

Becky
Becky
1 year ago

The democrat party died with my grandparents in the early 70s. They long ago became Communist.
Nothing will change until we fix voting fraud, AND return to deporting these things, and hanging the Treasonous ones.

John D. Beach
John D. Beach
1 year ago

American citizens need to wake up to the fact that Democrats are more than willing to finance entitlements and stimulus checks for liberal-manufactured crises by unlimited debt. Two principled Democrats and many republicans have stood in the way of this modus operandi of the Democrat Party.
This is the mentality which must be defeated if the country is to survive.

Ron Bentley
Ron Bentley
1 year ago

We’re called the land entrapment for a reason. Democrat control for 80 years

Hal
Hal
1 year ago

The Republicans can shake that grip if they can put a halt to vote rigging … otherwise, probably not.

Linda
Linda
1 year ago

Unfortunately, part of the problem is the ‘amnesia’ that New Mexicans seem to get about election time. There is probably no one that would have re elected the Governor during Covid. But as she is sending out thousands of dollars to all taxpayers (and allowing those that didn’t pay any tax, to apply) it is no accident that those checks are being spread out now and will keep arriving until the election. For some reason, as long as I have lived here – popular discussions and opinion seem to be very displeased with the Democrats. Our economy is based largely on the oil and gas industry and as it is being over-regulated and shut down,. the economy is getting worse. Government programs and schools are over-run with illegals getting the same benefits as needy citizens. Between the amnesia and the highly irregular election processes (most are not even attempted to be hidden), I don’t hold out a lot of hope for this state to turn.

Momcat
Momcat
1 year ago

states need to use the electoral college method to keep the metro blue areas from ruling a red state.

tika
tika
1 year ago

we have to!

Mohave50
Mohave50
1 year ago

New Mexico is a third world country. It is at the bottom of every good list and at the top of every bad list. Some of the people in the State House are in their 90’s. They openly cheat in elections shamelessly and continue electing leftist idiots like their current governor. I lived in NM from 2004 to 2019. Saw it all. The really sad part is that NM is a lovely State. It has a lot of interesting history and some amazing scenery. A lot of the old West in New Mexico. Damn shame most New Mexicans think they need to vote for Democrats who give them a lot of Free Stuff.

Granny26
Granny26
1 year ago

More like demonrats….

mjl
mjl
1 year ago

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rvgrandma
rvgrandma
1 year ago

Being a resident of Washington, just like Oregon the democrats have been running our states only because the highest populations are in the Puget Sound and Portland metro area. There is a reason Eastern Oregon wants to succeed and join Idaho. Wish Eastern Washington would too.

Kay
Kay
1 year ago

I would think the Hispanics who have built a business would not be happy with illegals coming into their areas and live off the government and willing to work for little money. If people can not way into what will help them and their families they deserve what they vote for. Communism is rampant and will soon take over every state.

Morbious
Morbious
1 year ago

The article misses an essential and very timely point: mexican immigrants have taken over most of the trades in this country, often outworking their native counterparts along with being reliable and doing quality work. Thus far theyve arrived more or less in proportion to the jobs available. However, the treason party has thrown the gates wide open and will be offering welfare to the new wave of illegals. Theres little doubt as to how they will vote when the treason party gives them driver’s licenses. This is how the demons took California. To sum up; its not realistic to compare hispanic voters who work and are now stakeholders with the swarms currently arriving courtesy of biden et al. They will swing close elections and thats been the plan all along.

anna hubert
anna hubert
1 year ago

Tug of war between the parties is fine as long as the rope is solid but it now is frayed and fragmented exactly what Lincoln tried to avoid

Denise
Denise
1 year ago

Go Mark Ronchetti!! We’re 45 minutes from the New Mexico border. This state is a beautiful state BUT it has been literally run into the ground by democrat governors for decades. It has had the distinct place of being only second to Alaska in violent crime. Their “judges” continually let career criminals go before court…of course for some reason the criminals ‘miss’ court. To say New Mexico is a blue state is like calling Hurrican Katrina a summer breeze. One of the worst in drunk driving accidents, basically a welfare state, home invasions, dead last in schools (per a newscaster on KRQE) child abuse, child death, and of course a non-existent border…ad nauseum. But, there are also a lot of great people in the state who pretty much get ignored. Sadly my state also was literally stolen by uber wealthy shyster democrats in 2010 and we’ve gone down hill steadily. The best governor New Mexico had was Suzanna Martinez, a conservative Republican. She left office leaving a huge surplus for the state. It is disheartening to see.

J. Farley
J. Farley
1 year ago

New Mexico and Colorado have been invaded by Liberals who have escaped the big Cities and more liberal states to get away from crime and the environment, but brought with them the same failed policies, of the Nanny States, Welfare, High Taxes, Gun Control, Green Energy, and Big Government, both states have been turned into crap holes and in my view the newcomers are not smart enough to change. The two states are a disgrace to the rocky mountain region, and I wish they would’ve stayed where they were at least we had them isolated.
We in the Rocky Mountain Region want our God, our Guns and our Constitution Back.
Save both States, Vote Republican

Dr. Deborah Mitchell Gerold
Dr. Deborah Mitchell Gerold
1 year ago

We CANNOT tolerate another election in which the democrats win! There are many of us who are evangelical Christians, pro-life, against any legal “perks” for those who are not mainstream pro-family voters. Please encourage those who will to vote conservatively.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
1 year ago

Only IF were United & act in Unison WE Can But RINOs show up each time & gum up works

pete
pete
1 year ago

New Mexico is the 5th largest state. but after military reservations, Indian reserves, national forest, and wilderness areas, there isn’t a lot left for the populace, so govt influence in the state is huge. this contributes hugely to the democrat power.

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