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Behind Democrats’ Disarray: They Know They Are Doomed

AMAC Exclusive – by Daniel Roman

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Any ordinary American tuning in to coverage of American politics to learn what the Biden White House or the Pelosi/Schumer Congress plans to do about the multitude of problems facing the country – from the border to China’s aggression, to even whether their dollar savings will be worth anything in a few months – would have found themselves out of luck over the last few weeks. The narrative of American governance has become all about Democratic politicians fighting and negotiating with each other, with farcical scenes such as a Democratic senator from Arizona refusing to return phone calls from the President of the United States –a member of her own party.

While the media has been happy to follow Democrats down this rabbit hole of factions, personal rivalries, and technical disputes, the big picture has been lost. The Democratic Party’s current infighting is not that of a victorious and all-powerful party struggling to decide what to do with its victory. Instead, it is the panicked reaction of a party that understands it was largely defeated in November 2020 and is struggling to find a path forward in the aftermath.

By “defeated” in 2020, we must be very clear what we mean: while Joe Biden is President, and Democrats nominally control the Senate 51-50 with the vote of Vice President Harris, that is not where, for the better part of four years prior to November 2020, the polls or most Democrats believed they would be following last year’s election.

The results in 2020 came as a shock to Democrats for several reasons. First, Joe Biden’s official margin of victory, while slightly larger than Obama’s in 2012 at 51.26% to 46.8%, was half the size that polls, such as Nate Silver’s 538, had showed, at 51.8% to 43.4%. But even more concerning for Democrats, the locations of the polling error tended to be not in places where Democrats were strong, but rather either in swing areas where they hoped for gains, or areas where Obama had done well in 2008 and 2012, but Trump had won in 2016. In effect, Democrats won areas they felt were moving in their direction such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin by far less than they expected, and lost states they thought were close such as Iowa, Ohio, and Florida by much larger margins.

The implications of this in the Presidential race were obscured by the fact that the numbers showed Biden won. But they were keenly felt in the Senate races, where Democrats lost races in Iowa and North Carolina where they believed they were favored, and their candidates did worse than Biden even where he won, such as in Michigan and Maine. The result at the time was to leave the Senate at 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, a situation transformed by the victory of Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock against a dysfunctional Georgia GOP in January 2021. Nonetheless, it was ominous and it set the tone for Democratic behavior in 2021.

In light of these results, we can understand that the reason Democrats are now obsessing the filibuster is not because they have a mere 50 seats in the Senate. When Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut calls out Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema for blocking legislation that 48 Democrats support, he is doing so not because he believes they are likely to be 50 or 52 Senators for it in the future but because he is pretty sure 50 is as good as it is going to get. In 2008, Democrats won 60 Senate seats, and while with hindsight we can see this was a high-water mark, at the time Democrats dreamed bigger. After all, Mitch McConnell had only won 53%-47% in 2008. There were also open seats in states Obama had won in 2008 such as New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida coming up in 2010, and there was a path to a Democratic supermajority.

That is not the case after 2020. In 2020, only Susan Collins won reelection in a state won by the Presidential candidate of the opposing party. Democratic challengers, including strong ones such as Montana’s two-term governor, Steve Bullock lost, and lost badly (by 10% in Bullock’s case). This was also not just a 2020 phenomenon. Despite a good year for Democrats overall in 2018, Democratic incumbent Senators lost in Florida, Indiana, and Missouri that year.

Biden’s underperformance scared Democrats because it indicated a ceiling, rather than a floor for their strength.

In 2022, Democrats will be defending Senate seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire, all states that went to Biden, but within margins whereby strong GOP challengers, which exist in all those states, could win. More problematically, the list of Democratic targets includes only Pennsylvania and Wisconsin among states Biden won, and North Carolina and Florida among states Trump won by less than landslide margins. Matching Biden exactly would get the Democrats a gain of two seats; but even in 2020 most Democratic candidates ran behind Biden, and Biden is himself deeply unpopular today.

The situation in the House is, if anything, worse for the Democrats. Democrats lost 12 House seats in 2020. The impact of redistricting is overblown – Republicans will gain a marginal advantage from the lines, but census results show the areas growing most quickly lean Democrat – yet nonetheless, the Democrat position is so weak that any deterioration in Biden’s position will be fatal to their 2022 hopes.

In effect, the 2021 Democratic majorities are on a “death watch,” and Democrats’ confused attempts to deal with that realization is determining their current erratic behavior.

The split in the party is not so much between the moderates and the progressives. It is between progressives and moderates who desire political futures and those who know they have none. Pelosi is able to generally pass left-wing legislation in the House despite her narrow majority because many of her moderates know they are doomed no matter what, and are willing to cast their votes for the progressive agenda. In turn, AOC and the Squad feel free to sabotage any compromises because their own seats are safe and they believe they have time to fight another day, even if it is ten years from now. By contrast, both Sinema and Manchin seem to resent the efforts of other Democrat officials to pressure them to commit political suicide or behave as if they personally are doomed, just because it is true of some of their colleagues. In particular, rhetoric out of the Democrat caucus that Manchin is “probably in his last term anyway” or that Sinema “won’t win reelection” seems predicated on the idea that both should act as if they are finished and behave accordingly.

That appears to be the idea behind the left-wing belief that physically threatening Sinema, stalking her into restrooms, and following Manchin on vacation, will somehow make them give up and realize they need to act as if they are as doomed, as does the rest of the caucus, and get what progressives want passed now.

Part of the reason this is unlikely to be effective is that Sinema and Manchin, if convinced that they truly have no future in the Democrat Party, may not behave in the way left-wing activists wish. Those activists may be able to ensure Sinema and Manchin have no future in primaries, but their sway in general elections only matters if the two Senators face Republicans. It may well be that one or both may see a party switch or an independent run as a way to preserve their positions and even hit back.

This might be evident to those activists pressing Manchin and Sinema if they were not almost schizophrenically convinced, they represent majority sentiment at the same time they are worried Democrats are doomed in 2022. David Shor, who at 20 ran Obama’s data team in 2012, has been outspoken over the last several weeks regarding the dominance of young, college-educated, party workers and activists on the Democratic side who are disconnected from most Americans on the issues, but especially disconnected from the more moderate, non-white voters Democrats need. While Shor is pessimistic as well, his reason for pessimism — that demographics did not deliver for Democrats because Democrats alienated the voters they were counting on –would require those activists to admit fault. Instead, they prefer to blame their failures on a lack of “mobilization”, in other words, that they did not go left enough.

Hence, in the minds of these left-wing activists, if Democrats are doomed, it is because of the refusal of Sinema and Manchin, two of the most successful Democratic politicians, to end their political careers, rather than because the rest of the party refuses to listen to two of their members who have been most successful at winning over voters who might normally be expected to back Republicans.

Grasping these seemingly paradoxical convictions that prevail among the Democratic elite– that on the one hand, Democrats are facing mass voter defections, and that on the other hand moderates like Manchin and Sinema are to blame for their political misfortunes–is the key to understanding the weird intellectual death spiral the left of the Democratic party has fallen into.

Shor argues that the real problem with this progressive clique of largely white, privileged, young college grads is not their views on specific policies, but their inability to listen or interact with anyone who is not part of their ideological in-group. That is on full display with the disputes that are currently tearing the Democratic Party apart, the left’s treatment of Sinema and Manchin, and the likely failure of Biden’s domestic agenda.

Daniel Roman is the pen name of a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics.

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Bwa Ha
1 month ago

In my 69 yrs. of life I’ve can’t recall a more tense, divided guv’ment… EVER! I’m a non-partisan conservative. I always have been and have no intention(s) of becoming any sort of a partisan voter. This country is in wholesale disarray and I don’t see it getting any better over the next several years leading up to the 2024 election. The left’s somewhat perfected voter fraud in their campaigns, counts, elections so why would they let up now. They’re getting what they want and they’re most definitely re-defining our Constitutional Republic as they see fit, at their whim. The so-called “conservatives”… republicans are simply rolling over and playing dead, no spine to fight the left and take back our nation as we once knew and enjoyed it.

Nah, our wide open border that’s allowing illegals in by the thousands at biden’s behest is their way of gleaning more democrat voters, padding the vote counts accordingly.

Here’s hoping my adult children and my grandchildren and great grandchildren will have some semblance of what our Constitutional Republic’s all about when their time comes to take over the reins of our country. We can’t keep progressing on this downward spiral path of socialism and/or the likes forever!

If so, I’m hoping I won’t be around to see it.

MAGA2024! TRUMP2024!

HocasPocas
1 month ago
Reply to  Bwa Ha

The democrats don’t need those illegals to get the vote. They showed that in November, the Georgia senate race and the nuisance recall

Stephen B Henderson
1 month ago
Reply to  Bwa Ha

Real americans hope you wont he around either son. It takes a real man to admit when he lost, you losers still argue.
Grow a pair and stfu boy

bill c
1 month ago

As a country we must have free and fair elections. those who monitor for the repubs must have legal authority to watch the votes being counted nad to reject those that are not legal. if not then why vote…if any watched election night and watched totals change overnight we saw the cheating in real time. then jan 6th happened and it became a us against trump thing. its not. it must be about election integrity or just have a dictator

Sonya
1 month ago
Reply to  bill c

We already have had dictators just look at Pelosi, Nadler, Schumer, Obama, Biden

Stephen B Henderson
1 month ago
Reply to  bill c

You traitors literally tried to overthrow the government and now crying about dictators.
Suck it and choke son

Evelyn
1 month ago

Voter fraud has been proven. I know Trump won. Democrats conspired to cheat and obtain something none of them can handle. Now our Republic is in trouble, and will be for a long time if our elections are not fixed!!! Frankly, heads need to start rolling.

Biden is your president
1 month ago
Reply to  Evelyn

Just because you want an excuse for your guy to have lost so miserably doesn’t mean ‘fraud’. It certainly hasn’t been ‘proven’ to anyone with common sense. Whose head are you gonna start rolling ‘Evelyn’? You are just like all the other armchair cosplaytriots, all talk. Bring it.

Stephen B Henderson
1 month ago
Reply to  Evelyn

Traitors aka boomers like you will he rotting worm food in 10 years average or less.
You lost Karen.

james carlyle
1 month ago

Each day reveals the basic incompetence of the people in the “elite” positions of our elected government-Democrats as well as Republicans. Our best, most capable people are not in our Government-not even the third string.

Garye
1 month ago

2022 and 2024 isn’t soon enough to end this clown show!
joebama,piglosi and chuck u schummer ALL the WORST ever!!!

Stephen B Henderson
1 month ago
Reply to  Garye

Children or mentally incompetent folk use childish makeup words like “piglosi”. It’s telling how you traitors are anti LGBT yet you like your dad are males without sacks

Too Loose Low Trek
1 month ago

Um….Tlaib, Jaipur, Ilhan, Pressley, Cortez and brethren – the archetypal progressive clique – are not largely white, privileged, young college grads. 21st century Maoists perhaps – but not with the attributes described by Daniel Roman (sic).

Bill on the Hill
1 month ago

The vast majority of these liberal democrats are standing on a house built of straws, now that they have successfully pulled off the steal of the century, i.e. the rigged 2020 presidential election, not forgetting the down ballots & as well as the Georgia Senate runoff. They are at a crossroads it would seem & are acting in utter disarray…Sinema & Manchin have become the monkey wrench for the democrats…It would seem most of them are not on the same page & they are not sure what they should do with this now ill begotten power brought to them through a stolen 2020 election…
All of them should by now realize that their new found dear leader, one JRB is a despised man in the eyes of the average American citizen & they have to tread carefully bearing this in mind… They have another problem as well, JRB’s replacement is even more ill equipped to take over the reins of the WH as she is despised more so than her bigoted, racist driven boss ever was…
I think it is safe to say the democrat’s are in a bit of a pickle especially in light of the 2022 midterms coming up next year…
In summary: The Democrats have made their beds, now they have to sleep in them…
Bill on the Hill… :~)

Garye
1 month ago

democrats are truly dishonest scum

Janice
1 month ago

Well said. ????

Janice
1 month ago
Reply to  Janice

Don’t know why it showed up with question marks.

JOHN
1 month ago
Reply to  Janice

Because only fools believe that drivel.

HocasPocas
1 month ago

I agree Bill but I wonder how we’re going to get all these traitors out of our government and country. I feel that It is going to have to be by force and take an army of citizens

Sonya
1 month ago

And the beds aren’t all that soft and comfortable as they expected wait till the thorns and bed mites get them

Stephen B Henderson
1 month ago

Bill on the hill.
Let me guess, 65 or older? Like all boomers, you’re a sackless, lying traitors, like your dad and all you can do is run your mouth before Darwinism kicks in.
10 years or less and you like most here will be rotting away.
And you can’t do a singke.thing about it son ????

Chris
1 month ago

Huh? What Democratic area is growing quickly? The growth is all in the red states.

Sonya
1 month ago
Reply to  Chris

The traitors in charge are settling thousands of illegals in red states

Robert D Marshall
1 month ago

The progressives’ “inability to listen or interact with anyone who is not part of their ideological in-group”.

Where might they have acquired this intolerance of other opinions? Does that not sound like an accurate description of college/university campus life?

They think the real world should be just like their college experience, an echo-chamber of leftist thought!

Welcome to the real world, kiddies! You’re in for some learning experiences that you skipped while growing up. Sorry, no “safe spaces” in the real world.

Too Loose Low Trek
1 month ago

The kiddies have not grown up.

Shadow
1 month ago

Don’t try to validate the stolen election.

Troy Savage
1 month ago

Are there really any dem moderates in the house anymore? If they rubber stamp every left wing wish list Pelosi throws out there how can they be called moderates.

Michael
1 month ago
Reply to  Troy Savage

No. No moderates in the U.S. Communist party.

Sonya
1 month ago
Reply to  Troy Savage

None I’ve been looking and researching hard, not even that smooth-talking Gabby what’s hername from Hawaii

Cornfed
1 month ago

“Shor argues that the real problem with this progressive clique of largely white, privileged, young college grads is not their views on specific policies, but their inability to listen or interact with anyone who is not part of their ideological in-group.”

That’s an incoherent statement. Their “views on specific policies” are what defines their “in-group”. Their inability to listen to others, in this context, means that that they won’t listen to those who hold different values. They have no right to expect to win elections outside their sheltered enclaves if this is their mindset.

George Kamburoff
1 month ago

60 court cases say you are wrong.

HocasPocas
1 month ago

Go back to Russia you weasel

Libertyvaquero
1 month ago

Cases were thrown out for lack of standing, filing before harm could be shown or for filing too late. Name one case that threw it out because after examining the evidence.

George Kamburoff
1 month ago

When I see alleged mature Americans say things against the party which gave them Social Security and Medicare, I know they are really Russian.

Rob
1 month ago

No, I think they’re taking their time

Michael
1 month ago

Always have your hand out George? Are you thinking of yourself or your country?

PIDL
1 month ago

Another Troll.

George Kamburoff
1 month ago

I thjought you deniers wsere all infected by Covid.

PIDL
1 month ago

Obviously a Liberal troll!

HocasPocas
1 month ago

No, that’s just your wish, George. We’re stronger than you think we are. We also have something more powerful than you and your downtrodden democrats will ever have and that is our almighty God, master of everything. Without him you can’t win!

David
1 month ago

Wait till the “security measures” are enacted by next spring due to the many terrorists attacks that are bound to happen because of Idiot Joe’s policies. It will make the vote by mail cry because of Covid pale by comparison.

George Kamburoff
1 month ago
Reply to  David

The terrorists are conservative Americans and their Russian agitators.

Michael
1 month ago

George you have to stop watching the MSM. The courts have said there was no Russian involvement. However the MSM won’t tell you this. Hillary’s lawyer has now been indicted with the phoneyness of the Steele report. Stop drinking the Kool-aid, you’re a full grown man. Time to stop relying on others to do your research. Don’t be so phucking lazy!

PIDL
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael

Yes. And the person responsible for starting all of this Russian collusion crap is now a part of Biden’s cabinet. They have e-mails confirming he started the lie.

HocasPocas
1 month ago
Reply to  PIDL

And he is still in our government. Nothing seen here mentality of the people responsible for our country and the well being of the citizens.

Sonya
1 month ago
Reply to  PIDL

The foxes, jackets, hyenas, snakes and scorpions ruling over us God of Heaven and earth help us ????????

Jack Klompus
1 month ago

You should try going on your first date. It might do you some good.

Bwa Ha
1 month ago
Reply to  Jack Klompus

Yup, I’m guessing a date for Georgia would relieve her of that “mommy/daddy” basement dwelling thing she’s got going on there in the comfort of her “mommy/daddy? nest. But then again… it ain’t going to happen anytime soon, I’ll bet.

MAGA2024! TRUMP2024!

HocasPocas
1 month ago
Reply to  Jack Klompus

I feel for the person that would be on that date from hell

HocasPocas
1 month ago

Go back in your hole, George

Richard Wicks
1 month ago

Joe Biden didn’t win. A senile, corrupt, hair sniffing weirdo was not elected. He’s disgustingly corrupt with his crackhead son selling “art” for 1/2 million a pop to “anonymous” buyers. This is the most corrupt administration I’ve ever seen, most blatant criminality and I’m 50. He makes Clinton look like the model of virtue.

George Kamburoff
1 month ago
Reply to  Richard Wicks

You sound like a Poor Loser.

bill c
1 month ago

I knew a Kamburoff once…no …twice in Moscow

HocasPocas
1 month ago
Reply to  bill c

Isn’t that a coincidence bill

HocasPocas
1 month ago
Reply to  Richard Wicks

Again, nothing to see here

Sonya
1 month ago
Reply to  Richard Wicks

I wouldn’t go that far but yeah O’Biden certainly are Satan’s favorites now

Phrank
1 month ago

Joe Biden didn’t “win.” The ridiculous notion that he got “81 million votes” is beyond risible.

The evidence of widespread election fraud is everwhere, and insurmountable to rebut.

Trump WON. You fraudsters pretending otherwise are only exacerbating the problems this nation now faces, i.e., runaway inflation, uncontrolled illegal immigration across the borders, the abject failure of “Milley’s Military” to conduct a controlled withdrawal from Afghanistan… etc. etc. etc….

The ILLEGITIMATE “PRESIDENT SELECT” JOE BIDEN IS DESTROYING THIS COUNTY!!!

Craig the Czech
1 month ago

There’s a tsunami coming and I can only hope we show zero mercy. Enough is enough.

MBlanc46
1 month ago
  • None of that matters. The Dems now know that all they have to do to win—presidential elections, of course, but no doubt Senate elections, as well—is manufacture a few thousand votes in a few key precincts. Postal voting makes the manufacturing easy. They’ll control the Federal government until their lunatic policies bring the entire enterprise down.
George Kamburoff
1 month ago
Reply to  MBlanc46

Why not just invent silly stuff?

Bob Sherman
1 month ago

Silly stuff has already been invented, see Adam Schiff.

HocasPocas
1 month ago

Can’t get much sillier than what’s going on with your democrats

bill c
1 month ago
Reply to  MBlanc46

you have to put monitors in with law enforcement or they will pull the boxes out and count again.

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