AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman
The 2022 national mid-term elections are now entering a more decisive stage as party nominees for governorships, U.S. Senate, U.S House, and state legislators and constitutional officers are being chosen across the nation. Although a few key primaries remain in July and August, the results of primary elections involving vulnerable incumbents and their challengers are now largely known.
Polls have, for many months, signaled a likely Republican wave in 2022, but candidates do matter, even in a wave election, and the identity of who will be running is always necessary for correctly anticipating outcomes.
President Biden’s approval polls had appeared to have reached the bottom in the high 30s and low 40s, but this has not happened, and some of his poll numbers are now in the mid-30s — with no bottom in sight as he faces a falling stock market, an increasingly dire border crisis, runaway inflation, and higher gasoline prices, serious national supply chain shortages, unresolved war in Ukraine, challenges from China, and divisions within his own party. In spite of controlling both houses of Congress, albeit narrowly, his administration’s legislative program is stalled. The stock market, now in “bear” territory, signals a possible recession just before the election. Increasing numbers of Democratic leaders and strategists are openly suggesting he should not run for a second term in 2024.
Not all midterms are alike. But when a president and his policies are very unpopular, voters will make the midterm elections a referendum on their dissatisfaction — and otherwise, strong candidates of the president’s party, incumbents and challengers alike, lose their races in such a “nationalized” election.
Republicans face some obstacles, too — especially from the choice of some of their nominees in a few key races. Critics say former President Trump has inserted himself in a number of primaries, and although most of his endorsees have won, his picks in some important November contests might not be the strongest candidates. But Trump supporters argue that these candidates could have the kind of appeal that the supposedly more “conventional” Republicans rarely do. Mr. Trump’s undecided plans for 2024 have also produced some ambiguity among GOP voters — although he remains clearly the party’s most popular figure.
Democrats looking for issues with which to revive their prospects in 2022 have so far settled on Mr. Trump and the expected U.S. Supreme Court decision on abortion. But this strategy might not work as well as Democrats hope. Early results in the 2022 cycle indicate that an important part of the traditional Democratic base, Hispanic voters, are abandoning the party, and to a lesser extent, so are many black, Jewish, and suburban women voters. Abortion is an issue, but polls indicate that economic issues matter more. Donald Trump gets high negatives from some women and independents, but his name is not on any 2022 ballot. Joe Biden’s negatives are now greater than Trump’s, and current polls indicate the former president would even win the popular vote if the election were held today. This does not mean new issues cannot appear to help the Democrats, but they are running out of time — with just over four months left until Election Day and even less for the growing number of early voters.
I have repeatedly made the political observation, as well, that voters make up their minds much earlier when a midterm is nationalized, especially when there is a steady stream of bad or unsettling economic news. The nosedive in the stock markets has dramatically lowered the net worth of most voters’ pension and retirement funds, and inflation continues to erase any recent worker wage gains. Lockdowns and pandemic regulations by Democratic governors in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and other northern states have transformed usually easy re-elections into very competitive contests as small businesses turn back to Republican pro-business policies. President Biden’s energy policies discouraging oil, gas, and coal production are turning off eastern and midwestern voters who have voted Democratic in the past and giving strong motivation to GOP voters to turn out in November.
It is already a hot, dry summer in many parts of the country, and the national power supply will likely be tested. The Biden administration’s focus on alternative “green” energy has left the nation without vital backup power resources.
Drought, wildfires, and blackouts will not encourage voters to vote for candidates of the party in power.
The question now is perhaps not asking how big the voter wave will be in November, but how large CAN it be!
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The Democrats know how to ensure the vote turns out in
their favor regardless. Will the people still believe in the left
Does anyone have any idea who the stupid rino’s are who voted with the dems on stupid gun control bill? I would like to know which ones did this.
Cornyn, Tillis, Burr, Blunt, Cassidy, Collins, Graham, Portman, Romney, Toomey. I do know Toomey is done as he’s not running again. Romney seems more democrat than republican as does Susan Collins. Cornyn has to answer for his vote to the Texans and they aren’t happy about it. Look them all up.
Sorry for so long in thanking you. Family health issues. So Thank you so much.
If it’s Blue, it smells like poo
If it’s Red, vote right ahead
All I can say is don’t count your chickens before the cows come home. The republicans have a long history of saving defeat from the jaws of victory.
Never vote for a democrat, and chose your republicans wisely. The just passed gun control bill shows there are a lot of RINOs out there.
Thank God for the Supreme Court and their decisions on gun rights and overturning Roe.
Thank Trump for the originalist judges he appointed.
To those who will try to rig our elections, we’re watching you.
Only if elections are fair and honest. Remember that Joe got more votes than any president in history…..ya right….what a joke. At least they cannot blame the china virus this time…..Or can they?
It looks like this election will have many cases of a choice between bad and worse. We have just seen Republican (RINO) senators and representatives who voted with the Biden regime to take away our constitutional rights. On the other hand, we have the Democrats who ALWAYS vote with the anti-America, pro-tyranny left. As bad as some of the ‘Republicans’ are (like McConnell, Cornyn, Romney, Cheney, Kinzinger, Graham, etcetera) there is no choice but to vote for those who oppose Democrats because we cannot afford to leave total control in the hands of the moron in chief. If the choice is between a RINO and a Demoncrap, ya gotta vote RINO and work to get rid of that RINO later by recall or at the next election.
McConnell has only done ONE thing right in his entire career. That was to block Merrick Garland’s nomination. It paid off on 6/24/22. But now it is time for him to go.
It was time 30 years ago. Too bad voters are so dumb.
Voters have got to learn how to do their homework and vote intelligently instead of mindlessly following the media. Those who mindlessly vote a party line “just because” are also just as much guilty of destroying our republic as those who do not vote. Just look at all the RHINO’S we have now. As we all know, die hard party line addicts would vote for a vicious tyrant if the party endorsed them. History proves it. Time for everyone to wake up and engage their brains. The country we save IS worth saving.
There can be no “wave” if you refuse to vote! If you believe in a rigged system, they’ve won already. The problem last election was the same as it always was: “not enough people vote and too many stupid ones do.” To not vote is to hand them their “mandate”. They want ppl to not vote.
I believe in a rigged system and I will be in line to vote on election day. I will frequently tell my state legislators to clean up our electoral system but I don’t trust them much. On the other hand I feel much better worrying about whether or not my vote is counted properly than to know for sure that my vote is not counted because I didn’t put forth the effort to put it in the box on election day. Voting is the duty of being a citizen. Studying and picking the best candidates is also a duty of being a citizen. I can’t fix everything, but I’m not going to refuse to try.
Very well said.
We must NEVER give in to a corrupt electoral system.
Our Electoral collage has worked very well, until the corruption was tolerated.
It’s time to clean up the mess, imprison those involved in the cheating from 2020, and make sure we again have FAIR and HONEST elections.
If what I am hearing about lubricating oil for diesel engines is true, he is going to have even bigger problems that may drive his approval rating into the low 20s. What I am hearing is that lubricating oil for diesel engines will cease to exist in a few weeks. If true, diesel trucks will cease to run, and store shelves will be empty. Of course, if he can provoke a nuclear war with Russia, his problems will be solved.
The DemoKKKrats oughta be seriously worried. The FLOOR is likely 50 GOP pickups in the House and 3 in the Senate. The ceiling is anyone’s guess since the Rutabaga in the White House is utterly bereft of any connection to the public, any sense of how bad inflation and gas prices are, how stupid the Uke war looks, how horrible Afghanistan was bungled, how hideous the gestapo-like raids on ordinary Americans looks to the public. I wouldn’t put it beyond reason to get 70 seats—any seat now in a D+10 range—and five Senate seats.
Don’t forget the rinos and marxist democrats both are working against Citizens, look what the scumbags just got together on!
Our second amendment was just weakened because a few slime politicians who claim to be republicans caved into the destructive ,hateful democrats!
Why would ANY republican support the marxist democrat party??
President Trump is right, Our enemy is from within!
We must THROW OUT ALL marxist democrats AND lying rinos!!
There is no differance between them, ALL bad for America!
Yep. Anyone that votes for a destructive RHINO, might as well just vote for that worthless socialist/democrat.
IF you vote for a Demoncrap it is a guaranteed anti-American vote in congress every time. You are voting for an invasion of criminals coming across our southern border, higher taxes, benefits for criminals and punishment for conservatives.
On the other hand, if you vote for a RINO they might vote the right way part of the time. I know it hurts, but sometimes ya gotta hold your nose and pull the lever.
Sometimes we have to vote for the lesser of two evils.
Voting for the evil dems is exactly what we should NEVER do.
Let’s make sure we take overwhelming majorities in both houses, then work on improving things further by weeding out the RINO’s.
That is, truthfully, all we can do short of war.
My concerns. 1. In November 2020, 40% of registered voters who consider themselves conservative, DID NOT VOTE. That according to a survey (might even have been here) that seemed credible. A 40% turnout is not going to do it, especially knowing the socialists will cheat. Clearly in 2020, conservatives who stayed home were a big help to the socialist Democrats.
2. Single issue voters. In this case pro-choice women. Bad timing that the Mississippi case had to hit the SCOTUS this year, as its outcome was predictable and tragic. Huge numbers of women of child bearing age, and mothers with girls of child bearing age, are hearing nothing but “this is the fault of Trump and the Republicans.” They are going to vote Democrat, no matter how much a gallon of gas or head of lettuce costs, how much their IRA’s have lost in the market downturn, how much interest rates are up (by November especially), or how much permanent damage has been done to our nation with the Democrats’ open borders policy. Abortion is a single issue that is going to threaten GOP candidates at every level. See 1. above to do your part!
3. Dirty tricks at our expense. There is no limit to what Democrats will do to. Another “stimulus”, college debt forgiveness (although than one should backfire), and the historic Democrat favorite: get us into a war. Remember, half the voting population has a below average IQ.
Those are my concerns. If our ship is at risk, abortion may be what sinks it.
The Republicans now need to shout to the house tops that the SCOTUS case will not stop abortion. It only turns it back to the states. There are many socialist/democrat controlled states that will (and have) become sanctuaries. Maybe the socialist/democrats can pay for transportation to those states. The Pretender-in-chief might even set aside a few billion dollars for that exact purpose.
I am almost 70. I’ve voted in every single election I could.
I have NEVER met a “single issue” voter. That is a myth right up there with Pinnocchio.
Let us pray for a RED WAVE in November!!!!!
RED=REMOVE EVERY DEMOCRAT
The writing’s on the wall and the Demonrats know it, so yes, we must not be overconfident about the red wave. We will likely need a margin so large that it can overwhelm their ‘most extensive and inclusive voter fraud system in the history of American politics’. I love how the fact checkers say that remark was taken out of context by assuming he meant to say voter protection. Yeah it was a slip of the tongue. Sometimes the truth is accidentally spoken!
I think no vote should be accepted without a photo ID. I also think all social security cards as well as a green card should have a photo ID with some type of encryption that cannot be copied and I’m nof referring to a chip in the skin. What as happened to “honesty is the best policy”?
You are absolutely correct!
Well that honestly line never met the marxist democrat party or the rino Republicans, LYING is what they do best!!
Sad state of so-called representatives, they only represent themselves!
I agree. In Nevada, the poller asks my name and address then verifies my signature anyways! Simpler just to ID!
The hound dog will watch the rabbit hole this election.The dems have caused their own political mess as well as Roe going down(10 amendment).Let us all vote our own opinions and work to improve America and it’s benefits.God bless Trump and DeSantis. What a team.
IF your state has any electoral problems, contact your state legislators frequently and tell them what you think. We saw in 2020 that the people in charge of policing the elections will not do their jobs. The courts ignored obvious corruption. The DOJ did the same. Many state officials participated in the corruption. Perhaps it will be better this time but We the People have to do everything that we can to promote fair and honest elections.
First of all Biden is really not the President. He is the resident in the White House is all. Donald J Trump won the election as shown in the 2000 Mules documentary. In addition no President should allow our country to be invaded at our southern border and do nothing about and yet send untraceable money to Ukraine to supposedly fight a losing battle. All of this can be overturned after the midterms when election fraud can be brought to light. Right now the MSM is covering the issue up and says election fraud is a lie. The end is near. Plus Biden won’t allow our companies to produce more oil so we pay higher prices because of a supply side issue. This global warming climate change nonsense is to blame. China is building coal plants as is India. If the problem is global why are they allowed and no one else.
Don’t you know the election is only rigged if a Democrat loses? They called Trump the “Illegitimate President” after 2016. 2020 will not disuade me from voting again. To NOT VOTE is to hand them victory.
I resent your insinuation that President Biden is doing nothing about the invasion at our southern border. He is working hard to incentivize people from all over the world to enter our country illegally across the southern border. He is doing everything he can to keep our border patrol officers from stopping criminal activity. He is using our hard earned tax dollars to provide food, housing, education, medication and transportation for the invading criminals.
The idea that Biden is doing nothing about the southern border situation is an insult to every law-abiding, tax paying American citizen.
You are right on the money with those thoughts
I am very pessimistic and believe that the Swamp, Uniparty or whatever you want to call it, will rig the election (again).
Why not? Nothing has been done to correct it. It should be obvious to any rational honest reasonably Inteligent adult that the voting system simply is failing due to lack of honesty. The election system is broken … and I see nothing has been done to fix it. And as long as the DemocRats are in charge, nothing will be done to strengthen its ability to produce correct and honest results. IT’S A SCAM AS IT NOW IS!!!!
There actually has been a lot to try to fix election integrity in many states. The actual “problem” is the amount of money that comes in to suppress the truth and those who are working on fair elections. Of course the media is a huge part of the problem.
I have said this from Biden’s beginning. The Biden Administration has been destroying our great Country from day one!