The Improbable Peace President?

Almost everything about Donald Trump’s political career seems improbable.

His upset win in the 2016 Republican Party presidential primary was the first shock, followed by his general election victory over Hillary Clinton that many political prognosticators viewed as nearly impossible.

Four years later, the unexpected appearance of the COVID-19 pandemic was the catalyst for his narrow 2020 reelection loss. After two impeachments, four trials, and dozens of controversial court decisions, his 2024 comeback victory for a second term was also thought impossible.

Even after Mr. Trump constantly defied expectations, however, his numerous sweeping executive orders early in his second term were thought unsustainable. His tariff proposals were proclaimed as unworkable by the economic “expert” class.

Finally, Mr. Trump’s claims to stop wars in Ukraine and the Middle East were considered presumptuous.

There is still no peace in Ukraine, although he is pushing both sides to stop the carnage. But after a U.S. bombing strike in Iran, which intelligence reports suggest destroyed that country’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon, there is a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. At his behest, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is talking about an imminent end to the conflict in Gaza. Pakistan has also nominated President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize after he interceded with nuclear powers India and Pakistan to halt a recent serious conflict between them and brokered a ceasefire.

In his most recent accomplishment, President Trump has also announced a truce in the long-lasting and violent war between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo in Africa.

Of course, none of the ceasefires or truces just mentioned are yet permanent, but the fact that so many agreements, however shaky, occurred in such a short period of time, and at the intercession of one man in Donald Trump, is perhaps the most improbable phenomenon of all.

The origins of these conflicts long preceded Mr. Trump’s election to office. In the presidential terms preceding his, both Democratic and Republican, little or nothing was done to stop or prevent the violence by the U.S. or any other superpower.

Even after his historic political comeback, many in the Democrat Party and media establishment still portray Mr. Trump as a self-centered showman who speaks provocatively and carelessly, not a serious statesman. But in light of his growing list of accomplishments, he may well be remembered most as a president who brought peace and accord to many of the world’s violent conflicts. This is perhaps the most unpredictable expectation of all.

This legacy of peace is not yet an accomplished fact, however. Temporary ceasefires and truces do not yet mean a permanent peace. Ukraine and Russia are still fighting, and the radical Iranian jihadist regime still has a stockpile of enriched uranium fuel. Hamas still has about 50 hostages. Pakistan and India remain wary of each other. The fury of African tribes is still there.

Potential violent conflicts in South America could erupt at any time, as could serious aggression by China against Taiwan or elsewhere in the vicinity of the South China Sea. Tribal warfare could resume in other parts of Africa. Gang violence exists in many parts of the Western Hemisphere.

Importantly, however, President Trump has succeeded in his many peace efforts so far without putting any U.S. troops into current conflicts. He has used U.S. air power in Iran and has provided resources to Ukraine and Israel without committing American boots on the ground. He has also used trade and other economic tools to bring warring parties to the negotiating table.

As he has done in U.S. domestic policy, Mr. Trump has brought about much disruption and change in an extraordinarily short period of time. The greatest diplomatic legacy of his first term, the Abraham Accords, could soon be greatly expanded, transforming a chronically troubled region. His goal of our NATO allies in Europe taking on much more responsibility for their own defense seems to have taken place, as nearly every member country agreed late last month to boost its defense spending to five percent of GDP.

This is a story still in progress. Donald Trump’s political and diplomatic legacies have not yet been finalized. We are now in a period of truce and regrouping, which could lead to a variety of outcomes. But that the world has got this far this fast is one more improbability in the Age of Donald Trump.

Barry Casselman is a contributor to AMAC Newsline.