The last several election cycles have seen a redrawing of the political map, with President Donald Trump breaking the vaunted “blue wall” in the Upper Midwest while Democrats have become more competitive in Sun Belt states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
Last November, Trump carried all seven swing states on his way to a decisive electoral victory. But beneath the surface, there were bubbling signs of political change in several other noteworthy states as well. Here are the top contenders to become the next swing state in future election cycles.
Minnesota
The Land of 10,000 Lakes, dominated by the Minneapolis-St. Paul metroplex has long been a Democrat stronghold. The state hasn’t voted for a Republican in a presidential race since 1972 and hasn’t elected a GOP governor since 2006.
But in recent cycles, the anchor of Democrats’ blue wall has slowly become more competitive. Trump won 44.9 percent of the vote in Minnesota in 2016, 45.3 percent in 2020, and 46.7 percent last year. Neighboring Michigan and Wisconsin, already key swing states, have shown signs of inching rightward, perhaps indicating a coming shift in Minnesota as well, which has a similar economy and demographic breakdown.
Along with the rest of the Rust Belt, Minnesota has been hit particularly hard by the offshoring of manufacturing jobs and increasingly onerous government regulations on the state’s mining industry. If the Republican Party continues to embrace President Trump’s America First agenda, with its promise to restore the American manufacturing sector and ease the regulatory burden on mining operations, it could further boost GOP chances in the state.
Virginia
In 2021, incumbent Governor Glenn Youngkin became the first Republican to win statewide in Virginia since 2009. Then, last November, the Old Dominion produced one of the biggest surprises of election night when Trump led there well into the evening, ultimately cutting his margin of defeat in half compared to 2020.
Virginia is unique in that changes in DC could have an outsized effect on the state’s political dynamics in the years ahead. The Trump administration is currently downsizing the federal workforce, much of which resides in the heavily Democrat suburbs in the northern part of the state and could seek employment in other states. The administration is also looking at moving some offices out of the capital, which could further dilute Democrats’ advantage.
These factors combined with Virginia’s large rural population, which has only voted more Republican over the past few cycles, could mean that the state becomes one to watch in future contests.
New Jersey
The Garden State was another uncomfortably close win for Democrats last year, with Vice President Kamala Harris carrying the state by five points over President Trump. Just four years ago, Joe Biden won the state by 16 points. In 2020, New Jersey Democrats had a registered voter advantage of more than one million. By this past January, that edge had dwindled to 896,000.
A combination of failed liberal policies and broader demographic shifts may make New Jersey more competitive in the years ahead. 22 percent of the state is Hispanic, a group with which Republicans are making major inroads. New Jerseyans have also been hit hard by inflation and the cost of living crisis under Joe Biden and the Democrat leadership in Trenton, as the state has the highest property taxes in the country and the third-highest overall tax burden nationwide.
Texas
Democrats have long believed that the Lone Star State, with its exploding Hispanic population and emerging tech culture, could be the party’s ticket to electoral riches.
Republican presidential candidates indeed have seen their vote share slowly decline in the state since the 1980s. Reagan won 63.6 percent of the vote in 1980, while John McCain won 55.5 percent in 2008, and Trump won 52 percent in 2016 and 2020.
But in 2024, Trump’s vote share jumped to 56 percent – seeming to suggest that things may be moving in the wrong direction for Democrats.
It may be the case that Democrats are on the verge of finding the right political formula to make Texas competitive outside of campaign rallies in Austin and endless empty promises to donors. But of all the states on this list, Texas seems the least likely to turn purple.
New Mexico
The Land of Enchantment is perhaps the most under-the-radar state that could become a political battleground. Unlike neighboring Arizona, which has gone from solid Republican to perennial swing state, Democrat presidential candidates have easily carried New Mexico since George W. Bush won there by less than one percent in 2004.
But since then, Democrats have seen their vote share decline following a high-water mark of 56.9 percent set by Barack Obama in 2008. After Hillary Clinton won New Mexico by 8.3 percent in 2016 and Biden won by 10.8 percent in 2020, Kamala Harris won by just six points last year, 51.9 percent to 45.9 percent.
With its large and growing Hispanic population and oil and gas interests, Trump’s America First agenda could make the GOP more competitive in New Mexico moving forward.
Every election cycle has a few surprises, and a state not on this list could emerge as an unexpected battleground. But chances are that the next swing state will be one of these five.
Shane Harris is the Editor in Chief of AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
There shouldn’t be ANY “swing states.” Every vote in every state should matter! When pundits (who are mostly wrong anyway) start calling races with 0 percent votes counted, it disincentivizes every voter in later time zones. We need to go back to in person voting, on a paper ballot, with election monitors in the room as votes are counted. No votes counted after election day! No running around trying to cure ballots from people too stupid to follow directions, or whom cannot even write their own names. No non-citizens voting. No more motor voter automatic vote registration. No QR codes or bar codes on the ballots. No voting/registration without photo ID!! If India, and other countries, can run an election with many millions more and publish results within 2 days, so can we!
Until the current Communists are gone, we will have the propaganda and influence affecting our USA. History of Nazi Germany has not been taught in our schools for the past 50 yrs. When students learn how Communism will treat people tragically, then there could be a Wake-Up-Call.
As a lifelong Minnesotan who was actually raised on the Iron Range where mining is king, it baffles me why so many of the Iron Rangers vote Democrat! I know some personally! They either don’t listen to anything but the mainstream lying news, or they just vote Democrat because they’ve always done so! The Biden administration did not do their steel industry any favors!! How can people be so…dare I use the term…stupid!?!
All the people moving out of California has had a lot to do with the change in demographics. Also the businesses moving from Calif as well because of the tax structure. They all choose to live in strong Red states to get away from all that. Problem is evidently they still remain Democrats, therefore changing the political dynamics in the states they move to.
Not so sure the outlook is so sunny for the GOP in these states. I have zero faith that MN or NJ are going to be in play because there are simply too many communists in those states. VA won’t stay in play for the GOP because of the population centers in NOVA with all the Gubment Bureaucrats, as well as Richmond and Tidewater. Not enough sensible people in those areas overall & the other ‘red’ counties need to be absorbed by WV, TN & NC. Best overall solution for all of VA is to move the IS capital out of DC.
If TX goes purple or blue then it will go back to being part of Mexico, fully controlled by the cartels.
If the uber-left Marxists among us keep trying to derail ALL of the efforts of Trump to make our country safer and economically sounder, I can only see Conservatives in both parties voting Republican. These Marxists are behaving so outrageously with their destruction of property, threatening Republicans and acting like a bunch of spoiled 3-year olds. This is typical behavior of “leaders” who want to totally take power and rule as dictators.
Sorry … but calling states swing states, would not exist with honest elections. Calling Arizona a swing state, is like calling Washington DC mostly red. It is insanely absurd. The only reason Arizona has two senators that are blue, is due to election fraud. Prior to the current two Democrat senators, we did elect a pink senator, in Krysten Sinema … who while not always, voted generally with a little logic, across party lines. The only reason we have a Democrat as Governor, is due to extreme election fraud. The only reason biden won the state of Arizona in 2020 was election fraud. Get rid of fraud, and I think a lot of ‘swing’ states would be red. I have been an in person voter since the age of 24, in Arizona (24 rather than earlier, as the voting age was 21, and I was off the coast of Vietnam in 1970.)
I’d like to see an article on why the Democrats are getting more competitive in some states like North Carolina and what can be done to reverse that trend!
I agree with Pat R. Those fleeing liberal states fail to leave their liberal ideology behind, so now they’re contaminating the conservative states they escape to. If Texas flips to blue, the electoral votes go bye-bye and it’ll be all over for Republican presidential candidates.
Democrats would not get away with the game rigging and cheating in Las Vegas, yet they get away unpunished every time they rig the most important game in the country. Is there no law that would dare to touch this mob? Not only do they get away with it they spit in our faces as well. They are breaking the law ,I would get punished for passing a bad check..
Kamala’s inadequacy and idiocy was a huge gift.
America First must do all it can to make her the DNC nominee again.
Texas? Give me a break. Trump won Texas 56 to 42%. Senator Cuz won against Allred 53 to 45%, though Allred massively outspend Cruz, (mostly out of state money). Same thing happened to the over-funded Beto against Cruz in 2018.
On the other hand, as a Republican, I love it when 10’s of millions of dollars are spent by the D’s trying to turn Texas ‘blue.’
Good luck!
Surprise, surprise, surprise: Recently California polling for the next give nor show Republicans have 48% of the vote, and climbing. People want to reverse the loss of paradise.
Hopefully, Trump buys Greenland and put all the Libtards and the non-Republcans on it!
You should really cover Omega4America’s fractal technology work on voting integrity. It’s rather eye opening to say the least. The cheating is Democrats only way to win any of these states, but they’ve got a VERY GOOD system for cheating. Omega4America can really help to change that significant advantage, Think about it. Dem policies suck. They are completely out of touch with average Americans. The current Dem party is pretty much cray cray. How are ANY states swing states? They’re not (except for a select few like NY and CA). Please check out their work. It is critical to the future of legit elections.
In this past election the reported number of Political democrats and democrat voters that turned to and voted Republican and helped Trump and Republicans win by a large margin jumped significantly and that says a lot about the turning tide in Americas politics. Many of the Democrats Political field separated themselves from the Obama led Liberal far left democrat field and those that left went Republican, Independent or stayed with their party and just separated themselves from Obama and the liberals. On the Republican side the Rhino Republicans are facing the same discontent from the Republicans. Where those Democrats who defected from their party because they stand for America and her Constitution over the liberal’s communist and socialist agendas, the Rhinos and their supporters are leaving for the liberal’s communist and socialist agendas which makes all the difference in the world.
I trust neither party. What I would like to see is both parties fracture and give us a party that is tolerant of people’s differences, not influenced by dogma, but that does not appreciate high taxes with no tangible benefits for all, does not appreciate globalism or pointless wars, does not appreciate the media being bought and paid for by pharma, and has no tolerance for censorship of any kind ever.
Lots of Minnesota residents are moving into Western Wisconsin to escape MN taxes, and political turmoil. Little do they know that if Susan Crawford gets elected Wisconsin will become like IL and CA. I pray to God people get out and vote for Brad Schimel. If you have relatives in Wisconsin, call them and encourage them to vote for Brad. Our property taxes will increase significantly as she wants to eliminate ACT10. This is more important than the President election!!!