Can The Squad Survive 2024?

While Joe Biden’s political future has been thrown into serious jeopardy following his disastrous debate performance late last month, he’s not the only Democrat in danger of losing re-election this fall. With four months to go until Election Day, a number of far-left members of the “Squad” have also suddenly found themselves in serious political peril.

Perhaps the most endangered incumbent is Missouri Congresswoman Cori Bush. The summer 2020 riots provided the perfect platform for Bush to become a progressive star, as she emerged as one of the most outspoken proponents of the “Defund the Police” movement – and has continued to defend it even after it has fallen out of favor with most other Democrats.

However, polls show that Bush is now trailing Wesley Bell, a local prosecutor vying to unseat her in the state’s Democrat Party primary on August 6. Her vulnerability has sufficiently worried Democrat leadership to the point where House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY-8) and other high-profile figures in the caucus made a major show of endorsing her for re-election last week.

After Bush romped to a 43-point victory in her most recent primary contest in 2022, Bell’s early polling success must have come as a major shock to both Bush and other progressives. But Bush’s consistently unpopular policy stances and personal scandal appear to be catching up with her, even in one of the bluest districts in the country.

Along with backing virtually every radical left-wing position, from abolishing police to environmental extremism, Bush is also under multiple federal investigations for abuse of campaign funds. Those charges include allegations that she diverted significant sums of money to her husband for ostensibly being part of her campaign security team. A substantial portion of her campaign war chest has been used for her legal defense, potentially hobbling her re-election efforts further.

Another member of the Squad, New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, has already lost his primary to Westchester County Executive George Latimer. In an historic defeat for an incumbent, Latimer soundly defeated Bowman by more than 16 points.

Bowman’s outspoken opposition to Israel appeared to play a significant role in his undoing in New York, which has a large Jewish population. Latimer won by promising bipartisanship and criticizing both the far left and far right – a direct rebuke of Bowman’s progressive politics.

Radical opposition to Israel and even outright antisemitism has long been a major wedge issue between the Squad and other Democrat lawmakers. Last November, Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan accused Biden of enabling “genocide” for backing Israel in its war against Hamas and repeated the slogan “from the river to the sea,” which alludes to the destruction of Israel. In 2019, the House – then controlled by Democrats – also passed a resolution condemning antisemitic remarks made by Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.

Bush’s predicament and Bowman’s defeat could well be a sign of things to come for other members of the “Squad,” which, along with Bush, Tlaib, and Omar, also includes Reps. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (NY), Ayanna Presley (MA), Greg Casar (TX), Summer Lee (PA), and Delia Ramirez (IL).

All of these members, and in particular the original four – Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Pressley, and Tlaib – are from deep-blue districts and were once thought virtually impervious to primary challenges given their deep support from the media and Democrat donor class. But glaring personal flaws and the growing unpopularity of progressive policies have now cast doubt on that assumption.

While Republicans stand virtually no chance of winning these seats, less progressive-minded Democrats clearly see an opening to offer an alternative to voters.

This has deepened already existing rifts within the Democrat Party. Following Bowman’s loss, Ocasio-Cortez told reporters, “I think we need to have a real conversation about the AIPAC,” a powerful pro-Israel PAC. She accused AIPAC of being “Republican operatives who were using their money to play an extremely divisive role in the Democratic Party” – even though the group has historically and disproportionately funded Democrat candidates.

Other progressives also blasted House Democrat leaders for not doing enough to back Bowman – something they are clearly trying to correct by offering a strong show of support for Bush.

But what Ocasio-Cortez and the rest of the Squad don’t yet seem to realize is that their sudden political vulnerability is a matter of policy, and not funding or media exposure – both of which they still have in spades.

Along with current members facing challenges, prospective new additions to the Squad have also struggled. In May, Susheela Jayapal, sister of House Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), was handily defeated in her Democrat primary for Oregon’s 3rd Congressional District – rated as D+22 according to the Cook PVI. The primary winner, Maxine Dexter, joined several Oregon candidates who won on platforms of law and order and public safety.

So far in 2024, Bowman and Bush appear to be the only Squad members in real jeopardy of losing their seats. But that number may well grow in future cycles.

Andrew Shirley is a veteran speechwriter and AMAC Newsline columnist. His commentary can be found on X at @AA_Shirley.