Stepping back from the Israeli-Hamas war, with 1400 Israelis, 4200 Palestinians, and 32 Americans dead, this conflict is potentially prolonged proxy war, one with Iran – which finances Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah, and Hezbollah. Add this one to Biden’s proxy with Russia over Ukraine, and the implications are many.
First, wars are expensive – always more costly in lost lives and dollars than anticipated by those who prosecute them. Old men send young to war. Direct or proxy, wars become a massive drain.
Fighting two wars at one time is a double drain. While Ukraine and Israel suffer on the front lines, the US is – for all practical purposes – underwriting both. No end in sight, we are caught in a spending vortex, defending allies under attack, multiplying the drain on US taxpayers.
The point is proxy wars are expensive, like direct wars. Avoiding them is cheaper. The Cold War, proxy for a hot one with the Soviets, cost nine trillion dollars, with 100,000 dead Americans in Korea and Vietnam.
Likewise, Bush-era wars were staggering affairs. Iraq cost us a trillion dollars, 4,492 American dead, 32,292 wounded, 100,000 Iraqis killed. History records Iraq made Afghanistan harder.
Even the Afghanistan war, response to 9-11, cost two trillion dollars, 2,324 American service members, 3,917 contractors, 1,144 allied troops dead, 20,713 wounded, 70,000 US-aligned Afghan military and police dead, 46,000 Afghan civilians, 67,000 Pakistan civilians dead.
What does this tell us? Wars are expensive, in life and treasure, expand, extend, are hard to end.
Today, thanks to Western resolve, ISIS is out of business; Trump ended their ugly run. But the combination of fumbles under Bush and Obama brought ISIS to life, cost half a million lives. Today, Iraq is dominated by Iran and Afghanistan is led again by the radical Islamic Taliban.
So, what is the “go-forward?” Wars may need to be fought, but preventing them – investing in “peace through strength” or budgeting for deterrence – is always cheaper, smarter, better.
Similarly, preventing wars from expanding, working to concentrate power, using overwhelming force to decisively end the conflict, while protecting civilians, always trumps escalation.
Put differently, if we fail to deter war, a decisive victory is the next best option, creating more enduring peace; sprawling wars with no endgame extend pain and cost.
Second big implication: Proxy wars mask bigger ones. They represent persistent instability, making bigger wars more likely. Thus, working overtime to secure peace is worth it.
In the Russia-Ukraine-NATO and Iran-Israel-US sagas, finding a way to end conflict gets more urgent over time, not just because of mounting loss and cost but proxies tempt fate, bigger costs.
Third, proxy wars generate unintended consequences. Most of the world joined the Cold War. Europe and others are sucked into Ukraine’s battle; more will be into the Middle East conflict.
Unintended consequences flow from weakness, distraction, and opportunity. China and Russia see the Iran-Israel-US embroglio as useful; China sees the Russia-Ukraine-NATO war same way.
These bad actors, working together, represent a morally and ideologically corrupt counterweight – and rising threat – to freedom-centered Western nations.
The new Middle East conflict raises the likelihood that China, North Korea, Russia, even Iran may act in a rash, opportunistic, and profoundly dangerous way. We need to be ready.
For China, that could mean actions against Taiwan. For North Korea, actions against South Korea or Guam. For Iran, it may mean hitting US flagged tankers, even US warships.
In short, the world has – overnight – become less stable, US embroiled in two proxy wars.
In closing, as wars do not last forever, we can only hope these will both end soon, on decisive terms. But we need to look ahead, try harder for peace real, and work to deter the next one.
Bottom line, looking back: Biden’s team invited this terrible turn, running from the Taliban, allowing Putin a “minor incursion,” greenlighting Iran with money, indulging China. Looking forward, if we can only remember the seminal lesson, “peace through strength” is always better.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
It could be worse! Thank God the only “football” they let Bumbling Joe hold these days says “NERF” on it.
Thank you, Bobby, once again for gently spelling out how unstable our world has become in less than a month. It is a very perilous and daunting time, even for an eternal optimist . As an educator, I’ve reached out to my students who are very nervous and confused on what might happen. This is all new and unscripted for them. But, it’s a good time for all of us to become more familiar with our nation’s history and even our global history. Knowledge truly is power! It gives you the power and the ability to be hopeful and confident that good will overcome evil. We must all focus on becoming true and better Americans rather than just political parties. If we don’t take the time to unite and find a way to work out our differences and protect our country, then we don’t deserve to be free! Stop pointing the proverbial finger and just get along. That’s what our kids do on the playground! Sometimes I think our unblemished youth are far more tolerant and excepting than the adults in their world. So, let’s be better models and get it done!
America is broke, socially, financially, spiritually. We pay more than a trillion each year paying just the interest on our 33+TRILLION dollar debt and that debt grows with each tick on the clock. We are currently involved in one active proxy war against Russia using Ukraine as our proxy but much more than Ukraine, who arguably deserves it, has been destroyed. The collective economies of western Europe are in financial ruin. Germany the bulwark of the EU economy has been de-industrialized from being forced to be cut off from affordable energy from Russia from stupid sanctions mandated by the real leaders of Europe which are located in the Whitehouse in D.C.. Those sanctions if anything improved the Russian economy and forced the Russian state into a tight bond with China, India, southeast Asian nations and virtually all of Africa and South America. On our government controlled mainstream media we are forever lied to about the situation of the Nazi infested government in Ukraine just as we are being lied to about the latest slaughter ongoing in Israel. Yes, HAMAS, an organization founded and funded in part by Israel itself as a weapon against the PLO. Boy, that worked out great. HAMAS an elected political party, whose last election I believe was in 2006, did break out of what has to be considered a huge open prison established by Israel to enslave the Palestinian people and they killed several civilians and military members and took some hostages. Those escaping attackers were militant HAMAS members so in response Israel with the gleeful backing of the Brandon Adminsitration is now ethnically cleansing the entirety of Gaza…..Gaza being the caged open air prison Israel packed 2.5 million Palestinians of which roughly 52% are juveniles. Daily bombings and missile strikes are rained onto the populace of Gaza killing multi thousands the vast majority of which have never been allowed outside the perimeter of the cage Israel established for them and of course never will. We had two carrier battle groups off the Israeli coast. I believe the word is that one has sailed to other waters where we are also meddling but one carrier group seems quite a huge “support” vehicle for a country that states it is not directly involved with the Israel-HAMAS conflct.
All this is being done on borrowed money while our cities fall into lawless decay on the orders of a brain dead, corrupt war monger of over 53 years in public office who is beseeching the Supreme Court for its ability to continue demanding censorship of its conduct via social media. We are now in that tyrant territory the Founding Fathers established the Second Amendment for as a protective measure for the people.
Wake up and demand we cease this eternal foreign meddling and turn the monies we seem intent on borrowing toward the needs of our citizens with an emphasis on “citizens”. YES we can deport the horde of illegals that are destroying our border states and which are now spreading their malignant presence to the rest of the country.
Our elected leaders took an oath upon taking office and are not living by that oath. Demand they do by any means necessary. Yes, “things” are that bad.
Shah of Iran and Anwar Sadat knew that Moslem brotherhood was not about living in brotherly love and peace
Use your real name Hillary!
Democrats attract voters by LIES, LIES and MORE LIES and Because a vast majority of people are just STUPID when it comes to Common Sense!
According to Yellen we can afford two Wars. National Debt INCREASED OVER ANOTHER $1.7 Trillion since January 2023, not counting 2021 and 2022 INCREASES. Dictator Beijing biden’s $1.4 Trillion INFLATION INCREASE ACT was supposed to lower the National Debt and help Americans. What a joke. Instead he INCREASED TAXES for his Socialist Green Agenda/Global Warming LIES (COMPLETE FAILURE) and ILLEGAL ALIEN TERRORIST INVASION and NOW his Communist buddies in the IMF want to RAISE TAXES (U.S. will basically be the only ones paying). Not to mention that gasoline and diesel are the same price currently as obama’s first term and fixing to jump up more. All sound familiar? And all this time Dictator Beijing biden thinks he Napoleon.
The old man is not in charge! Obama is and the world knows it. Biden gets lost on a stage, does anyone really believe he is capable to understand what is going on in the Middle East? He is a puppet and his master is an Iran supporting Muslim!
The botched withdrawal from Afghanistan told the whole world how incompetent the Biden administration is.
Dumb and dumber!
democrats always get us into wars thinking it will fix their economic screw ups. the problem is they are no more competent are the wars then the economy and we get screwed every time.
I don;t knwo why people vote democrat. I assume it is stupidity.