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Midterm Elections 2014 – Top 5 House Primaries to Watch

election2014By Alexandra Jaffe - The Hill -

House races are getting off to an early start, with much of the action developing in already contentious primaries. Here’s a look at five of the ones likely to produce the biggest fireworks in 2014.

Pa.-08

Incumbent: Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (R).

Fitzpatrick is a top target for Democrats, and they have their recruit in Army veteran and businessman Kevin Strouse. But he’ll face a credible challenge from Shaughnessy Naughton, a scientist and small business owner who jumped into the race in May.

Strouse has already been named to the DCCC’s “Jumpstart” program, which offers promising recruits fundraising and communications support by the Washington campaign apparatus. He posted a strong fundraising haul since announcing his candidacy in April, bringing in more than $250,000 — with the help of DCCC Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), who headlined a fundraiser for him.

But he only recently moved to Pennsylvania from D.C., opening him up to carpetbagging charges — and Naughton wasted no time in attacking him.

“He is the handpicked candidate of Washington, D.C. Washington is the problem. We’re not going to fix that by bringing more Washington to represent Bucks County,” she said when she announced her candidacy in May, according to the Intelligencer.

And there’s already indications that local Democrats are irked at the national party’s engagement in the race, a trend that, if it grows, could spark backlash against Strouse at the polls. A progressive Pennsylvania politics blog urged a “hands-off approach” in the primary.

A competitive primary could drain much-needed resources early in the race, when Democrats will need every cent available for the general, if the DCCC decides to intervene on Strouse’s behalf. Naughton’s first fundraising report will be an early indication of whether this primary is one Democrats will need to worry about.

Mass.-06Incumbent: Rep. John Tierney (D)Tierney already has a Republican target on his back, but the scandal swirling around his family and his small win margin in 2012 have given fellow Democrats reason to take notice as well.One Democrat, local businessman and former Marine Seth Moulton, has already jumped in the race, and another, onetime Senate candidate and attorney Marisa DeFranco is “taking a very strong look” at running.Moulton is untested and relatively unknown, but his profile makes him the type of candidate that Democrats would love to have run — if not necessarily in a contested primary. He’s brought big Democratic guns to his campaign — Joe Trippi, who managed Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential bid, and Max Glass, campaign manager for Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) — an indication he’s taking the race seriously, and not just running to raise his profile for future political plans.DeFranco ran a lackluster 2012 Senate primary campaign, and after struggling to raise money she was steamrolled at the state party convention by then-candidate Elizabeth Warren, who took more than 90 percent of the vote for the party’s nomination.The DCCC has placed Tierney on their Frontline program, which offers its most vulnerable Democratic incumbents fundraising and operational help — but they issued that protection with a likely rematch between Tierney and Republican Richard Tisei in mind.It remains to be seen whether the party apparatus will defend him in what could be a fierce primary.If DeFranco decides to run, she could split the anti-Tierney vote and offer the incumbent a pathway back to the nomination.But observers expect more details to emerge from Tierney’s family’s scandal, which centers on an offshore gambling ring. A steady drip of bad news for the incumbent could seriously jeopardize his bid for reelection even before the general campaign begins.Ida.- 02

Incumbent: Rep. Mike Simpson (R)

Though Simpson is used to primary challenges, he’s likely to see his first credible, well-funded one in attorney Bryan Smith, who received the Club for Growth’s first endorsement of the 2014 cycle this past week.

Simpson, by Club standards, is one of the most moderate Republicans in the House, with a lifetime 58 percent score on the conservative group’s report card. His district, however, is heavily Republican, and Mitt Romney won there last year with 64 percent of the vote.

Smith, who has Tea Party support, announced raising $147,000 in just one month, a strong fundraising haul for a primary challenger. The Club for Growth typically spends big for its favored candidates in primaries, as well.

But Simpson raised a solid sum, too, in the third quarter, bringing in $300,000.

And Simpson is a longtime ally of House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), and he could find help in high places if Smith gains traction in the polls. The National Republican Congressional Committee typically stays out of primaries, but expect Simpson to see support from some of his fellow less-embattled incumbents, and perhaps even Boehner himself.

This primary could offer a test of whether, absent the intense anti-establishment furor that characterized the 2010 elections, the Club for Growth is still a commanding force in primaries.

Calif.- 17

Incumbent: Rep. Mike Honda (D)

Honda has heavy and active support from the Democratic establishment, but the race between Honda and Democratic primary challenger and former Obama official Ro Khanna will pit the party’s establishment against many donors and allies of its figurehead, President Obama.

Honda has received the endorsement of nearly every major Democratic figure, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.), and President Obama himself. Vice President Biden has already stopped in California to campaign for the longtime congressman.

But Khanna, who has known Obama since his first run for state senator, signed several of Obama’s top campaign staffers on for his bid, including Jeremy Bird, Obama’s 2012 national field director, and Steve Spinner, a top Obama campaign fundraiser who is chairing Khanna’s campaign.

Khanna just announced raising a monumental $1 million in the first three months of his campaign, aided by contributions from a number of top Obama donors, including Facebook executive Sheryl Sandberg, Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer and Napster founder Sean Parker.

Honda raised $345,000 last quarter, and has $375,000 cash on hand to Khanna’s $1.75 million.

The racial makeup of the district, which is heavily Asian-American but has seen an influx of Indian-Americans, could also play a role in a primary.

The incumbent is still favored for reelection, as he’s well-liked and has given voters little reason to send him home. His campaign released a poll earlier this year showing him leading Khanna 57 percent to 5 percent.

But Khanna’s campaign is pledging to use Obama-style digital tactics to reach out to new voters and get them to the polls. Khanna is also hoping to appeal to more moderate Democrats and Republicans in the district, in hopes of taking advantage of California’s “jungle primary” system, where the top two vote-getters in a primary head to the general, regardless of party.

Calif. – 31

Incumbent: Rep. Gary Miller (R)

Democrats likely won’t squander one of their top pickup opportunities in this blue-leaning district, like they did in 2012, but the clashes between four Democrats, Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, former Rep. Joe Baca, attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes and school board official Danny Tillman, are already sparking fireworks as the race heats up.

The DCCC weighed in early to back Aguilar, in hopes of clearing the field and protecting Democratic chances at the seat. California’s “jungle” primary system means the top two vote-getters in a primary, regardless of party, move on to the general, and multiple Democratic contenders could split the Democratic vote.

If no other Republican enters the race, however, Democrats are likely to see one of their own make it to the general election — but if the intraparty squabbles continue on their current path, that candidate could emerge from the primary significantly bruised, if not weakened.

Aguilar has already lashed out at Baca for previously supporting Miller, when Baca was running in a neighboring district.

Both have touted endorsements from current House lawmakers, but after Baca released a list of endorsements of 30 of his former colleagues, a number of lawmakers either withdrew their endorsements or claimed they had never made them in the first place.

Aguilar raised $300,000 in the second quarter, and Reyes brought in $200,000. Baca’s fundraising report will be an indication of how much he’s been able to rally his prior supporters to back him in his current bid.

While Tillman has largely flown under the radar so far, Reyes could be a wildcard in the race. She hasn’t yet gone on the attack, but she has the backing of EMILY’s List, a group that has been known to spend thousands on its favored candidates.

Comments (19)

  1. ML says:

    We really need to get that GUY out of office , none of his promises are or were true,kick him to the curb.How many vacations? How many do you get?Over spending,Lie after lie,WAKE UP AMERICANS ,did YOU fall asleep with all your Tec TOYS,and stuff .We need small gov ,Keep sleeping your RIGHTS are being taken little by little,what are you GOING TO DO,are u looking for the gov to take care of u .That’s not what made our country Great.WHAT DON’T WE UNDERSTAND ABOUT THE WORD ILLEGAL DON’T -U as americans are being going to be put to the curb,and Illegal active will be taking our streets over for good.WAKE UP clear your mind and think about were u really are going,your smart phone won’t pull u out .

  2. Michael JK says:

    Good try Dr JCA1
    What kind of doctor are?
    Liberalism I believe.

    • DrJCA1 says:

      Michael: far from it. I am a middle ground independent thinker who has sided with both liberals and conservatives, depending on the issue and ideology involved. I was in family practice for decades and taught at a few medical schools.
      As far as your accusation of me being liberal, I suppose you feel that it’s OK for conservatives to demand a big bureaucracy when it comes to you wants? Do you believe all those on the right are 100% truthful or only want what is best for the nation as a whole? I think not. I do prefer the conservative approach to most things, but I abhor the far right with their holier-than-thou attitude. Their religious beliefs are not to be shoved down MY throat. That is my “liberal” thinking.

      • Richard Slate says:

        Holier-than thou attitude? Let me tell you something, rather you like it or not you are going to face God one day after you die. And if you have not accepted the Lord Jesus Christ as your personal Savior you will go to hell. Read what the Bible says mister liberal.

  3. DrJCA1 says:

    The self-serving phoniness of most Americans is the only thing that is destroying this nation. Whether left or right, the pap spewed forth is the same. Conservatives howl about the big government intrusions (and they are right) into our lives and want less federal faces in ours. But if you look at what most conservatives demand, it is no different, conceptually, than what the liberals demand. You want less in areas of spending, but want more in tax breaks for your businesses. You want less welfare but more in “protecting” the unborn or religious institutions. You cannot differentiate between freedom of religion and freedom from religion. You gay rights bash but want the government to outlaw gay marriage.
    In other words, you only want smaller and less intrusive government in those issues that are opposed to what you believe in. On the issues you desire to see put forth, you want government intrusion just as much as the people and ideas you vilify. For a party that stands on holier-than-thou platforms (you know, “god is on our side”), you sure as heck are just as hypocritical as your opponents.
    Here’s what I would like: the government out of everything except the very basics of necessity – infrastructure, keeping a well trained and equipped armed force, ensuring that the states don’t screw each other over, and dumping the entire tax code, replacing it with a consumption tax and/or a low and flat tax on ALL income. No deductions, exemptions, excuses, or loopholes of any kind.
    As far as the social security and medicare systems – remove the cap on earnings, reduce the tax to 5%, and increase the retirement age 1 year every decade starting now.
    Sadly, nothing will ever happen because 99% of conservatives are just as full of you-know-what as is 99% of liberals, only both sides truly believe that “I’m right and you’re wrong”. Your children and grandchildren will thank you for destroying their country at some point in the future.

  4. Lewis Burns says:

    I am really happy that Jay Rockerfeller is leaving, all he does is help Obama to do what the King wants. And our other trader, Joe Manchin of WV coat has turned a dozen times in his first term. He is not for the people of WV. He needs to be unemployed like our cold miners.Like Lainie stated earlier, lets vote all of the fat cats out, and vote less term limits.

  5. Lainie says:

    It is time to vote out the incumbents and get a responsive Congress. No more puppets.

  6. Bill Perry says:

    Voters,
    Note what happens when either a Democrat or Republican that is not responsive to his constituents, they secretly, yes secretly get they wealthy supporters to fund a 3 way race in the primary. Because name recognition and the insiders what to hold on to their candidate they vote for the incumbent or the non-responsive candidate in office.
    The 3d candidate in the primary draws enough votes away from a people’s choice to replace the incumbent to the incumbent.

    Case in point. Senator John McCain in AZ wanted to serve one last term in his home state. He had a strong opponent, J. D. Hayworth who revealed McCain’s lack of effort to require that the ObambaCare Bill be read first and that would have killed the bill, surprisingly, there was a 3d candidate, a former Navy Seal, that drew just enough votes from J.D. Hayworth to enable McCain to garner enough votes to defeat J.D. Hayworth. McCain funded more negative ads against J.D. than he did against Obamba & that is how the insiders stay in office.

  7. Jacqueleen says:

    Has anyone researched these candidates to determine if they are liberal Progressives in disguise? This is the problem that this country has been facing…..We think we are voting for a sincere, patirotic, public servant when indeed we are voting for a commie in disguise. Do the homework….news agencies and let \us know before election day if these candidates are Progressives? Thanks.

    • PaulE says:

      A very excellent point Jacqueleen. Just because someone as an (R) after their name doesn’t mean they are necessarily a fiscal conservative in favor of reduced spending and limited government. They are a number of Progressive Republicans in Congress today and they are all too willing to partner with the Progressive Democrats against people trying to save this country. Look at both John McCain and Lindsey Graham as examples. Both are Republicans, but both side not only with Democrats a significant amount of the time, but go out of their way to partner with the hardcore Progressive Democrats like Chuck Schumer far more often than they stand for those in favor of fiscally conservative government.

      We need to vet EVERY SINGLE person running for Congress and ferret out those that are simply RINOS. We have to look beyond the campaign rhetoric of candidates, but look into their past public service, if any, to see how they have behaved over time. That means looking at their voting record, not just relying on what they are promising now. Yes, this is work, but it has to be done or nothing will ever improve and things will likely get worse instead. As election time nears, all Republicans claim to be fiscal conservatives. However, once elected something magical happens. People like McCain and Graham suddenly drop all pretense of being true fiscal conservatives and go right back to being the Progressive Republicans they were before the re-election cycle started.

  8. Don says:

    Every time I see Steve Israel’s name I cringe. He is a abortion loving phony. Anyone he supports I oppose.He couldn’t chair a wash room.

  9. Linda Schoonover says:

    I think Kay Hagan, Democrat needs to be voted out. She votes for the party and does not respond to questions or the will of the people.

    I also believe Richard Burr is open to my opinion and responds to my comments. He seems to care what the citizens think about what is going on in Washington. He will vote against a bill if something has been “tacked” on to get it thru . When I have questioned him as to why he has voted in a certain direction he has responded and explained why he chose to vote the way he did.

    • Ron says:

      Linda, I agree on your assessment of Richard Burr. He is person who serves the people and doesn’t expect the people to serve. He is a good friend of the fire service and respects all people. I once conducted a fire & life safety inspection of his office as part of my job responsibilities and his staff’s attitude was great and they and Richard Burr responded in a quick manner resolving an issue.

      Kay Hagan is there for two reasons: her party support and herself.

    • Ron says:

      Linda, I agree on your assessment of Richard Burr. He is person who serves the people and doesn’t expect the people to serve him. He is a good friend of the fire service and respects all people. I once conducted a fire & life safety inspection of his office as part of my job responsibilities and his staff’s attitude was great and they and Richard Burr responded in a quick manner resolving an issue.

      Kay Hagan is there for two reasons: her party support and herself.

  10. David Nelms says:

    What about Eric Cantor in VA? This RINO has turned away from his conservative values and seems to be selling out to Democrats on key issues facing this Nation. Hopefully a good conservative candidate will come forward and challenge him in the 2014 elections.

  11. Eugene McGlynn says:

    Remember the 46 who voted to give up our rights that are promised in the 2nd Ammendament. They can not be put back in.

  12. Lowell says:

    Kay Hagan, Democrat from NC has supported every country destroying bill that has been voted on. In my opinion she must be voted out. Richard Burr, Republican NC has voted every direction possible. Toss up if he should keep his job.

  13. Ivone Lima says:

    What about NC? I would love to see Renee Ellmers (my representative) loose her seat .She won’t even have a town hall meeting unless it is in a republican environment(her words) and Virginia Fox for being such a hatemonger

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